Sunny & Brisk Start to December

After a windy Monday with some heavy rain early in the morning, a large high pressure ridge will bring sunny and brisk weather for the remainder of the week. 

Below are the peak wind gusts on Monday around the South Sound. (Click to enlarge).

Peak gusts were 20-45 mph in the South Sound, with 45+ mph on the coast and hurricane force winds at Camp Muir on Mount Rainier. Take a look at the Camp Muir wind readings today. 

Wow. That’s some serious wind! Wind chills were in the range of -10 to -30 degrees, with peak winds of 96 mph, with gusts to 126 mph! You would find those winds in a Category 2 hurricane! Additional hurricane force (74+ mph) gusts were found on nearby ridge tops (below).

That includes an 82 mph gust at Crystal Mountain!! Wow!

Enough on crazy mountain wind gusts...let’s take a look at our weather situation. Below is an upper level pressure map for Monday morning. 

The red and blue shading is vorticity, or energy in the atmosphere. More vorticity is red (more active weather), less vorticity is blue (calmer weather). 

The map above, from Monday morning, shows bright red for vorticity and close lines (troughs, or active weather). The overall trend was a frontal system bringing active weather to the area. The exact opposite of what we’re about to see.

Now, take a look at the predictions for Tuesday evening.

Wow. That’s a huge difference. We’re under a large high pressure ridge, and in turn we will experience sunny & brisk days with chilly nights. Pressure will get up to near 30.60”, which is much above normal (30.06”).

Here’s the Puyallup forecast from weather.com for the next 10 days.

What this forecast doesn’t show is the northerly winds that will be blowing on Tuesday and Wednesday. While the winds will be light (5-15 mph), with chilly temperatures it’ll be brisk. Then, rain looks to make a return by next Tuesday.

Expect low temperatures of 28-36 degrees this week. With these temperatures, black ice and frost is possible. 

In addition, fog and/or freezing fog is possible across the area this week as well.

Frontal System on Monday, Then Sunny & Calm

Sunday will be a mostly sunny day after a chilly morning (lows 32-36 degrees). Some fog is possible around the area as well. Be prepared for low visibility. Clouds will increase late Sunday as a frontal system moves toward Western Washington.

Below is the UW forecast model showing precipitation through 4 PM Monday.

Expect 0.1-0.7 inches of rain from this frontal system. 

In addition, another round of breezy to windy weather is likely as well. Take a look at the blend of 4 forecast models for Puyallup. (Big numbers are sustained winds, small numbers are gusts).

The models are in agreement that winds will increase early Monday morning (1-3 AM), and will gust of 20-40 mph through 4-6 PM Monday. Be aware if you have Christmas inflatables...nobody wants to see Santa blowing down the street :)

That will take care of our weather action for the week...

The rest of this week will be partly-mostly sunny and calm, as a high pressure ridge will dominate most of the Pacific Northwest through the next week or so.

Below is the weather.com forecast for Puyallup.

Expect highs of 45-50° and lows of 30-38° this week. Freezing temperatures and frost is possible if temperatures dip into the low 30s. Rain looks to make a return by next Tuesday.

Enjoy the calm weather after our Monday frontal system!

What is a “Frontal Passage?” and a Look Ahead

Tuesday was a breezy and rainy day around Western Washington. Some of the heaviest rain and strongest winds came from 3-4 PM, when a cold front moved through the region, bringing strong winds and heavy rain. 

But how do we know this was a cold front...and what is a frontal passage? Let’s take a look at the weather chart from my home weather station that shows a good example of the frontal passage.

Outlined in the red rectangle (from top to bottom) are the charts of temperature, winds+gusts, wind direction, rain+rain rate, and atmospheric pressure. But first, we need to know what a frontal passage is.

During the frontal passage, a cold front “passes” by a location. The cold front is the “front” of the advancing mass of colder air. It is typically warmer ahead of a cold front, and more rain is found ahead of the front in the rain shield. The heaviest rain and strongest wind is in and very close to the frontal boundary itself.

Now that we have learned what a frontal passage is, let’s refer back to the chart above. During Tuesday’s frontal passage (and any other frontal passage):

Temperature will decrease

Winds and wind gusts will increase, and winds will change from S-SE to W-SW

Rain and the rain rate will intensify

Atmospheric pressure will stop falling, reach its lowest point, and rise after the frontal passage

All of these things can be observed in the chart above, and they happened today.

Winds gusted 20-45 mph on Tuesday. The strongest winds were during the frontal passage (37 mph gust at my house!). Below is a NWS map showing peak gusts.

Winds will subside through Tuesday night, and Wednesday will be calmer with a chance of rain.

We will be under the influence of a high pressure ridge from late Wednesday through the weekend. There’s a slight chance of rain on Friday night and another chance of rain by Sunday night.

Enjoy the break in the weather...and I hope you enjoyed learning about frontal passages!

Rainy & Breezy Early in the Week

What a contrast of weather this weekend...sunny and beautiful on Saturday, then cold and rainy on Sunday. Expect some more rain and breezy conditions at times this week, with more mountain snow as well.

Take a look at this amazing picture that Gunner H. captured at Paradise on Saturday!

Beautiful...and notice all the snow on Mount Rainier. We’ll talk about the snow forecast soon.

Below is a 5-day outlook from NWS Seattle showing our expected weather.

We have already received 4-6 inches of rain this month in the lowlands, and another 0.3-0.5 inches are likely through Wednesday morning, with the most rain on Tuesday. (UW forecast model below).

Additional mountain snow is also likely...good news if you are a winter recreation fan! The accurate UW snow forecast model shows 4-12 inches at the passes and 16-30 inches on the higher peaks through Wednesday afternoon.

Expect another breezy day Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts of 20-40 mph likely.

After Wednesday, rain chances decrease and the weather will likely calm down. Expect a dry day on Thanksgiving, with highs in the mid-upper 40s and lows in the upper 30s-low 40s.

Break in the Weather, Active Pattern Likely Next Week

After an active week of weather in Western Washington, we will have a “break” of sorts with some drier weather likely this weekend.

It was a windy and rainy week...with gusts of 20-50 mph on Tuesday and 20-35 mph on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Rain-wise, take a look at the totals this month so far. 

Wow! 2.5-6.5 inches of rain this month! For those of us who are tired of rain...I have good news! Drier weather is likely on Friday, Saturday, and most of Sunday. 

Below is the 10-day forecast for Puyallup from weather.com.

Drier weather, with lower precipitation chances, is likely on Friday and Saturday. Rain chances return late Sunday, but most of the day should be dry. Some good days to rake some leaves or be outside! Notice that the “normal” rainy pattern persists into December.

There is still a small chance of rain this weekend. Below is the UW model forecast for rain through 4 PM Sunday.

Expect another 0.1-0.5 inches of rain. I’d say that the most rain is likely later on Sunday.

The active pattern will likely return by late Monday. More rain & mountain snow and breezy conditions are likely. 

Below is the forecast rain through Thanksgiving. The UW model indicates 0.5-2.5 more inches of rain. 

Stay tuned and enjoy the relative break in the weather...for now!

Strong Winds & More Rain on Tuesday

Tuesday will be a stormy day in Western Washington, with strong winds around the region, more rain, and large waves on the ocean beaches. It will also be quite mild, with high temperatures of 54-62 degrees.

A very strong and deep low pressure center will move parallel to the Washington Coast on Tuesday, making landfall just north of Vancouver Island.

This storm’s size and intensity will bring strong winds to all of Western Washington. Winds will gust 50-70 mph on the coast and north of Everett, and 35-50 mph in the Puget Sound Lowlands. 

Below is an event timeline from NWS Seattle, showing what to expect on Tuesday. (Click to enlarge).

This wind event will unfold in 2 phases.

1. Due to the strength of the low center offshore, it will draw winds out of the gaps in the Cascades. This will create easterly winds gusting 20-40 mph Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The main areas impacted by this will be the foothills of the Cascades.

2. Winds will shift from easterly to southerly (more typical direction) on Tuesday morning. These winds will gust 40-50 mph across the Puget Sound Lowlands. 

In anticipation of this, NWS Seattle has issued a Wind Advisory (below) from 8 AM to 5 PM on Tuesday for winds gusting up to 50 mph. Expect peak winds during the timeframe that the advisory is in effect.

For areas closer to the Cascades (Bonney Lake eastward), the advisory also includes the potential for E-SE winds gusting 40-45 mph before the southerly winds.

Power outages and tree damage is possible with this storm. Be prepared and take caution accordingly.

In addition to winds, more rain is expected in the next few days. Below is the forecast rain from the UW forecast model through 4 AM Thursday.

Expect another 0.5-2.5 inches of rain. This could bring monthly totals to 4-7 inches by Thursday morning. 

A break in weather systems is likely later in the week, but not for long, as more systems are likely to impact the area by the weekend.

Recap: 

• Expect strong winds, gusting 40-50 mph across our area on Tuesday, with peak winds from 8 AM-5 PM
• Be prepared for power outages and tree damage
• Another 0.5-2.5 inches of rain is likely through Thursday
• A short break is likely later in the week, with more systems by the weekend

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One more note...2 weeks ago, Hurricane Eta made landfall in Nicaragua as a Category 4 hurricane, with winds of 145 mph and 25+ inches of rain. Today, only 2 weeks later, Hurricane Iota (below) is making landfall in the same location as a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph, 15-30 inches of rain, and 15-20 feet of storm surge. The combined damage from these storms will be catastrophic for parts of Central America. Keep the people of this area in your prayers.

Image from Tropical Tidbits.

Stay tuned, be prepared, stay safe, and keep Central America in your prayers.

Friday Recap & A Look Ahead to More Active Weather

Friday was an active weather day in the Pacific Northwest, with windy, rainy, and snowy weather. Are we surprised that it was crazy, though? It was Friday the 13th, after all :)

Below are Friday's peak wind gusts. Winds gusted 30-50 mph across the South Sound.

Winds were even stronger on the Oregon Coast, with 70-95 mph gusts and large waves. The mountains received 6-20 inches of snow as well!

Our area got 0.3-0.75 inches of rain Thursday night-Friday morning, and more is on the way. 

Let's take a look ahead...

Remaining winds from Friday will subside and calm by midday Saturday. Expect a mostly cloudy day. 

A frontal system will approach the area later on Saturday. Expect rain to begin in the afternoon, continuing through midday Sunday. Below is the UW forecast for rain through 4 PM Sunday.

I'd expect 0.3-1.2 inches of rain during this time.

Along with the rain, another round of gusty winds is likely from Saturday night to Sunday midday/afternoon. Below we have the forecast winds & gusts from 4 different forecast models. The forecast runs from late Saturday (left) to late Sunday (right), and details winds for Puyallup.

Remember...the big numbers are sustained winds and the small numbers are gusts. Expect another round of winds gusting 25-45 mph from late Saturday through Sunday afternoon across the Puget Sound area.

Monday looks to be a break in the wind, but rain is still likely during the day. I'd expect 0.2-0.75 inches of rain. (In case you were wondering...our November rain average is 6.5 inches. We're only at 2-3 inches so far...)

Tuesday bears watching. There is a possibility of a strong windstorm on Tuesday, with possible wind gusts of 45-65 mph. The uncertainty of this event is still high, but stay tuned for updates on this possibility.

After Tuesday...MORE rain is likely (I'm sure you're not surprised). It's safe to expect another 1-4 inches of rain through the end of next week.

November typically has a lot of active weather in the Pacific Northwest...and this November seems to be no different!

Significant Forecast Changes, Stormy Couple Days Likely

Since the last blog post, the forecast has changed significantly. What was once thought to be a potential major windstorm has weakened to a more run-of-the-mill autumn storm. We will still have rain, breezy to windy conditions, and lots of mountain snow through the next few days.

The first part of the action will be on Thursday. A frontal system will bring rain and breezy/windy conditions to Western Washington. Below is the UW WRF model forecast for rain from 4 PM Thursday to 4 PM Friday. Expect rain to begin Thursday afternoon.

Expect 0.5-2.5 inches of rain through Friday afternoon, when a break in the rain is likely.

Windy conditions are also expected Thursday afternoon into Friday night. Below is the forecast wind from multiple forecast models for Puyallup.

The bigger numbers are sustained winds, with the smaller numbers being gusts. Expect winds gusting 30-45 mph from Thursday evening into Friday evening. Enough to cause isolated power outages, but nothing major.

Friday will be a bit drier, with a break in the rain likely. Additional rain and breezy conditions are likely later on Saturday into Sunday, with 0.2-0.5 inches of rain and winds gusting 20-40 mph.

The mountains are in for major snow through Sunday, with even more after that. Below is the UW forecast model snow forecast through Sunday afternoon.

Wow! The Cascades and Olympics get 1-4 FEET of snow!

The active weather doesn't end this weekend. More systems packing rain, winds, and mountain snow are likely to impact the area through the next week or so.

Potential for a Major Windstorm on Friday/Saturday

There is potential for a major windstorm late Friday and early Saturday. Let's take a look at the latest information as of Tuesday evening.

As of Tuesday evening, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the impacts of this potential storm.

Here's what is more certain:

• A strong storm will make landfall on the Pacific Northwest Coast late Friday/early Saturday
• The storm will pack strong winds, but the placement and impacts of the wind are unknown
• More details will be refined in the coming days

Let's dive into the data. Below is the UW WRF forecast model for 10 PM Friday. 

See the 977 mb (millibar) low center off Vancouver Island? That is the possible major storm. The UW model brings this storm ashore in southern Vancouver Island, an ideal track for strong winds over Puget Sound.

Since winds are caused by difference in pressure, the closer the pressure lines means stronger winds. 

With this storm, the strongest winds will be found south of the low center.

Below is the forecast for 4 AM Saturday. The low center has moved northeast and is now over southern BC. Look at how tight the pressure gradient (change) is over Western WA! That signals strong winds during this time (should this forecast verify).

Of course, this is just one forecast model. A forecast is most reliable when multiple solutions are used.

The GFS (American) model brings a slightly weaker (981 mb) low into the NW tip of the Olympic Peninsula, a bit farther south of the UW model.

Below is the ECMWF (European) model, one of the most accurate forecast models. It brings a strong 975 mb low into the north-central Washington coast.

The European model also brings the storm ashore 5-10 hours ahead of the other forecasts, trending towards Friday afternoon, not late Friday night. The Euro’s landfall is on the borderline of strong winds or minimal winds over Puget Sound. Remember, the strongest winds are south of the low center, where the pressure change is strongest.

The small but significant differences in the forecasts above show that there is still uncertainty regarding what could happen.

Something you need to know is that the track of the windstorm will determine a lot about what happens. Here are the current approximate forecast model tracks.

Red is the European model. Blue is the GFS model. Purple is the UW model.

There is over 130 miles of spread between the forecasts. Far too much uncertainty to make a confident forecast.

If you were wondering:

• A landfall near the tip of the Olympic Peninsula or over Southern Vancouver Island produces the strongest winds for Puget Sound and all of Western WA
• A landfall south of the Euro model's track produces lesser winds for Puget Sound and stronger winds for Oregon and SW Washington
• A landfall north of the UW model's track produces lesser winds for Puget Sound and stronger winds north of Everett and on the coast

Also...wind speeds are still quite uncertain. As of now, I’d expect gusts in the Puget Sound area of anywhere between 35 and 65 mph. (That’s a very large spread...so nothing is for sure...but it’s always wise to be prepared).

Nothing is certain yet...but more details & forecasts will be refined in the coming days. 

Cold Morning Then Rain & Breezy

Monday morning will likely be the coldest morning since January. Temperatures will drop to 25-30 degrees in the South Sound! Below are forecast low temperatures from the Euro model...with the coldest temperatures away from the water and urban areas.

Monday will be a chilly day (highs 42-47 degrees) with increasing clouds. By Monday night, rain will move into the area along with breezy conditions.

Here’s the UW model forecast for rain through Tuesday afternoon.

I would expect 0.04-0.32 inches of rain, most from Monday night-Tuesday morning. Rain will taper Tuesday, with spotty showers around.

Expect winds gusting 20-40 mph Monday night-Tuesday morning.

If you’ve felt like it’s colder lately...it is. Highs will stay in the 40-50 degree range for the foreseeable future. 

As for the rest of the week...after a break on Tuesday and Wednesday, an active weather pattern is likely, with the potential for heavy rain & mountain snow and a possibility of gusty winds. 

Stay tuned for updates, and I hope you enjoyed the sunny weather on Sunday! I took the picture below in the Auburn-Black Diamond area!

Colder Weather & A Break From Rain

After a week of active weather and 1-3 inches of rain, the weekend will give us a break from rain (temporarily).

It will also be noticeably cooler, not just at night, but during the day. Highs will reach 44-50 degrees, a big change from the mild weather earlier this week. 

Below is a graphic from NWS Seattle, showing the forecast morning lows on Saturday and Monday mornings. Expect Sunday night to be near freezing as well.

Click on the image to enlarge it. Expect morning lows of 28-35 degrees on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings. Monday looks to be possibly the coldest morning of the season so far, with lows dipping into the upper 20s.

One more thing to be aware of is brisk northerly winds (remember, winds are named for the direction they come from). Our cold air is produced by cold winds blowing out of the Fraser River Valley in British Columbia. 

The strongest winds will be near the water, with gusts of 15-30 mph. 

Below is the 10-day forecast from weather.com for Puyallup.

A couple things to note...temperatures don’t go over 50 degrees, we have consistent lows in the 30s, and rain returns late Monday. It sure is November!!

Expect clouds and chances of rain to return Monday night, as active weather comes back once again by the middle of next week.

Breezy & Rainy Weather Continues

Wednesday has been a windy and mild day across Puget Sound, with winds still gusting as I write this.

Below are the Wednesday high temperatures across the South Sound from the NWS map. Some of our air actually came from the Hawaii region...explaining some of today’s “tropical” feel.

Wow!! Widespread highs of 65-70 degrees...quite abnormal for November!

Below are peak wind gusts from that same NWS map.

Gusts of 20-45 mph. This was in the forecast, and winds are expected to slowly subside through the night and into Thursday morning, with gusts of 20-45 mph.

Let’s take a look forward. First off, temperatures will slowly but surely cool down through the next few days. The weather.com forecast for Puyallup shows this trend.

Temperatures may approach freezing by the weekend. However, before we get there, we will pick up more rain. Below a graphic from NWS Seattle showing expected rain through Thursday night.

0.5-1.0 inches likely in the Puget Sound area.

Stay tuned for updates about colder weather this weekend, with some gusty winds possible as well. Another period of rain & active weather is also possible next week.

Active Weather Pattern Begins

Before we talk about the upcoming active weather pattern, I would like to draw your attention to Major Hurricane Eta. (Eta is the 7th letter of the Greek alphabet, used when the traditional name list for hurricanes is used up). 

At 8:30 PM Monday, Hurricane Eta has winds of 150 mph. It will make landfall in Nicaragua tomorrow with 160 mph winds (Category 5), 15-35 inches of rain, and 14-21 foot storm surge. Below is a satellite image of devastating Hurricane Eta from tropicaltidbits.com. 

Please keep those in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Guatemala in your prayers, along with those in the Philippines (major recovery effort beginning).

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Now to Western Washington...November is wasting no time bringing active weather.

Between Tuesday and Friday, we will be impacted by multiple weather systems bringing 1-3 inches of rain and winds gusting 30-45 mph. 

The first weather system is moving onshore as this is written Monday night. Monday was a warm day across the region, with high temperatures of 60-70 degrees (below). Yes, you read that right.

One of our warmest November days in a couple years.

Below is the forecast precipitation from 4 AM Tuesday to 4 AM Wednesday from the UW model.

0.5-1.3" inches is a safe bet for this time period.

Later on Tuesday (by the afternoon) winds will slowly increase. Expect wind gusts of 20-30 mph on Tuesday.

Wednesday will be windier than Tuesday. Expect winds to increase through the day, peaking with gusts of 30-45 mph from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.

Below is the Puyallup rain forecast from Weather Underground.

Tuesday and Thursday will be the rainiest days this week. Add up the totals...and we get 2.19 inches. Also notice that Tuesday and Wednesday will be quite mild, with highs in the 60s. 

Expect another breezy day (20-40 mph) on Thursday as well. Winds will be subsiding by this point. 

Clouds and spotty showers linger on Friday, before a big cooldown this weekend. Take a look at the weather.com forecast for Puyallup.

Below freezing temperatures likely on the weekend, then more rain in the forecast. Classic November in Western Washington!