Cooler & Wetter Pattern Starts Thursday

 FastCast--Thursday, May 16 to Monday, May 20:

After a relatively pleasant past couple weeks, a cooler and somewhat wetter pattern is returning to the Pacific Northwest. This pattern change will start on Thursday, with overcast skies and temperatures dropping to the low to mid 60s (some areas will remain in the upper 50s). Winds will increase across the area as a cold front (with little to no rain) moves through Thursday afternoon. Expect winds to gust 25-35 mph in the lowlands, and up to 40-45 mph along the Strait of Juan de Fuca and across Eastern Washington. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 60s under partly sunny skies on Friday, before clouds and showers arrive on Saturday. The weekend will be on the chillier side, with Saturday's highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and Sunday's highs in the low 60s. Monday looks to be partly cloudy, with highs likely in the low to mid 60s. More showers are likely across the area next week.

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A pattern change is ahead for the Northwest, after what has been a pleasant few weeks for the region. Let's take a look at the forecast!

First, let's take a look at the NAM high-resolution forecast for 24-hour temperature change from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 PM Thursday.

This is a significant drop...with highs likely dropping 10-20° across the lowlands and areas along the east slopes of the Cascades.

This temperature drop will be accompanied by gusty west/southwest winds across the region. Winds will be strongest on Thursday afternoon across the region, with gusty winds lingering on Friday in Eastern Washington. Below is the European model forecast for peak winds through Friday.

This forecast has been somewhat of an outlier, but shows parts of the lowlands gusting up to 40 mph, mainly from Tacoma to Shoreline. This forecast also shows westerly winds of 40-45 mph along the Strait, with even stronger winds gusting 45-50 mph across most of Eastern Washington, especially the Kittitas Valley, Wenatchee area, and around Spokane.

Let's compare this with the high-resolution NAM forecast, seen below, also showing peak winds through Friday.

This forecast shows lesser winds over the lowlands, only gusting 25-30 mph. However, it agrees with the strong winds along the Strait gusting 40-45 mph, and with gusty winds across Eastern Washington, especially in the Kittitas Valley and around Wenatchee (40-50 mph gusts). Of note is that winds in this forecast are quite strong over the Cascades, gusting 40-60 mph, which could be a threat to those recreating in the backcountry.

Now, let's take a look at temperatures. Below is the NWS NBM forecast for highs on Thursday.

In the lowlands, expect highs in the low to mid 60s (however, this is highly dependent on cloud cover...if clouds are thicker, highs will trend toward the low 60s). The coast will reach the upper 50s, while the Willamette Valley reaches the low 70s (could be lower depending on clouds). Eastern Washington will reach the mid 70s to mid 80s (warmest around the Tri-Cities).

By Friday, cooling will be noticeable across the state, as seen below.

On Friday, temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s in the lowlands, the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, the mid 60s in the Willamette Valley, and the mid 60s to low 70s in Eastern Washington.

Finally, looking ahead to the weekend, some rain is expected, especially on Saturday. Below is the European model forecast for total rain through Sunday evening.

This forecast shows the lowlands receiving 0.1-0.3" of rain, with the coast getting 0.15-0.3", and up to 1.2" in the Cascades. More rain is possible next week, which we'll explore a bit below.

We'll end this blog by taking a look at the NWS Climate Prediction Center outlooks for temperature and precipitation from May 21st to the 25th.

This gives a good inclination of the pattern that's ahead. For the Northwest, these outlooks show a 50-60% probability of below-average temperatures, along with a 40-50% probability of above average precipitation. Although this type of pattern can get dismal in spring, it is necessary to maintain good water supplies for what will likely be a hot and dry summer.

Cooler to Begin the Week, Then a Slight Rebound

 FastCast--Sunday, May 12 to Friday, May 17:

After two straight days with region-wide 80°+ temperatures, a slightly cooler day is ahead on Sunday, with lowland highs in the mid to upper 70s, with sunny skies. Clouds will increase late Sunday night, with temperatures on Monday decreasing to the low to mid 60s. There is a slight chance of showers on Monday, especially around the Convergence Zone. Only 0.05-0.1" is possible around the region. Mostly sunny conditions will prevail from Tuesday to Thursday, with region-wide highs in the low to mid 70s, warmest on Wednesday. Conditions will get a bit cloudier on Friday, with highs likely decreasing into the mid to upper 60s. Through the week, expect morning lows to be in the upper 40s to low 50s. 

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The past two days have brought the warmest temperatures of 2024, perfectly sunny skies, and the most incredible aurora borealis display over the Pacific Northwest in decades!

As we move into the next week, temperatures will decrease from their peak over the past couple days, with clouds and a slight chance of showers on Monday, before a bit of a rebound by Tuesday.

Below is the NWS NBM high-resolution model forecast for highs on Sunday.

Across the lowlands, expect highs in the low to mid 70s, with the coast reaching the low to mid 60s, and the Willamette Valley reaching the upper 70s. Eastern Washington will still be quite warm, with highs in the low 80s around Spokane and the mid 80s to low 90s in the Columbia Basin and in area valleys.

However, change is ahead Sunday night into Monday, as clouds move in west of the Cascades, and as temperatures cool to the east. Below is the NAM high-resolution forecast for wind gusts through Monday afternoon.

Notice that westerly winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will gust 40-45 mph, with gusts of 20-35 mph on the coast, and from Seattle northward. Eastern Washington, particularly the east slopes of the Cascades and the Kittitas Valley, will have gusts of 40-45 mph.

Temperatures will decrease substantially for the lowlands on Monday, with temperatures across the state taking a dip from Sunday. Below is the NWS NBM high-resolution forecast for Monday's highs.

On Monday, lowland highs will only reach the low to mid 60s, with highs in the Willamette Valley in the upper 60s to low 70s, with the coast only in the upper 50s to low 60s. Eastern Washington will be significantly cooler, with highs dropping to the mid 70s to low 80s.

There is also a chance of showers on Monday, as seen below in the European model forecast.

Notice a potential Convergence Zone band stretching across the North Sound, with areas of showers along the coast, in the Cascades, and around the lowlands. Rain will only total 0.01-0.1". 

However, there is a rebound in temperatures expected starting Tuesday. Below is the NWS NBM high temperature forecast.

On Tuesday, the lowlands will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with the coast back to the low to mid 60s, the Willamette Valley in the mid 70s, and Eastern Washington still in the mid 70s to low 80s, with isolated areas reaching the mid 80s.

Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the week, as seen below in the NWS NBM forecast.

On Wednesday, expect highs in the lowlands reaching the low to mid 70s, with the coast reaching the low to mid 60s, the Willamette Valley reaching the upper 70s to low 80s, and Eastern Washington reaching the upper 70s to low 80s around Spokane and mid to upper 80s around the Columbia Basin and the mountain valleys.

Conditions past Wednesday will likely be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, with highs generally in the mid 60s to low 70s, although the exact details of the coming pattern are still uncertain.

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Friday night to Saturday morning was the most significant aurora borealis display since 2003, and one of the best-viewed auroras ever in the Pacific Northwest! Below is my photo from Seabeck, WA, looking north over Seabeck Bay, taken around 11:15 PM Friday.

Just like thousands of others across the Northwest, I was blown away by seeing the aurora for the first time, and it was truly an amazing experience!

Short Spring Heat Wave for the Pacific Northwest

 FastCast--Thursday, May 9 to Tuesday, May 14:

A spring "heat wave" is ahead for the Northwest, with the warmest temperatures seen in months likely from Friday to Sunday. In the lowlands, expect sunny conditions through midday Sunday, before partly to mostly cloudy conditions take over from midday Sunday through Tuesday. Lowland highs will reach the low to mid 70s on Thursday. Friday and Saturday will be the hottest days since late last summer, with lowland highs reaching the low to mid 80s, hottest from Seattle southward. Cooler marine air will return on Sunday, with highs dropping to the mid 70s. Continued marine air will bring temperatures down to the mid to upper 60s on Monday and Tuesday. Remember, although temperatures will be warm, the water is NOT! Water temperatures across the region are in the 40s to low 50s, with some mountain-fed rivers in the 30s! These water conditions can cause severe health emergencies or even death. Be extremely careful around water during this warm spell.

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Warm weather is here! The warmest temperatures of 2024 (so far) are expected over the next few days, from Friday to Sunday, depending on what part of the state you're in. Let's take a look at the forecast!

First, the NWS NBM model high-resolution forecast for highs on Thursday, seen below.

Expect lowland highs to reach the low to mid 70s, with areas east of I-5 and south of Olympia reaching the upper 70s. The coast will reach the mid 60s on the beaches to mid 70s just inland, and the Willamette Valley will reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Eastern Washington will reach the mid 70s to low 80s, warmest in valleys and around the Tri-Cities.

Next, let's take a look at Friday's forecast, also from the NWS NBM model.

Friday will likely be the first 80°+ day of 2024 for most areas from Everett southward. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s from Seattle southward, and in the mid 70s to low 80s from Everett northward. The hottest temperatures will be in the mid 80s, mainly in mountain valleys. The coast will reach the low 70s (hottest day in this stretch along the coast), while the Willamette Valley will reach the upper 80s, with an outside chance at the Portland area reaching the low 90s. Eastern Washington will also be quite warm, with highs across the region in the upper 70s to mid 80s, hottest in the lower Columbia Basin.

We'll continue into the weekend, taking a look at Saturday's highs below, from the NWS NBM model.

On Saturday, the lowlands will reach the mid to upper 70s north of Everett, and the low to mid 80s south of Everett. There is potential for low 80s to be more widespread across the North Sound. The Willamette Valley will reach the mid to upper 80s, while Eastern Washington will reach the low 80s near Spokane to the low 90s in the Columbia Basin. Cities like Yakima and the Tri-Cities will likely reach the low 90s. Notice that on the coast, temperatures will drop to the low 60s on the beaches and mid to upper 60s inland. That's the "natural air conditioning" of the Pacific Northwest moving in.

The effect of that "natural A/C" (and incoming clouds) will be seen west of the Cascades on Sunday, as the NWS NBM model forecast shows.

On Sunday, temperatures west of the Cascades will decrease noticeably. Expect the lowlands to drop to the low to mid 70s, while the Willamette Valley will drop to the upper 70s. The coast will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. However, notice that the cooler marine air hasn't reached Eastern Washington, where highs will remain in the low 80s near Spokane to upper 80s/low 90s for the Columbia Basin.

Temperatures statewide will decrease on Monday and Tuesday as cooler marine air moves through. However, rain remains unlikely for at least the next 7 days, possibly longer.

What is causing such a nice stretch in mid-May? That question is easily answered by looking at the European model forecast for Friday morning, showing atmospheric pressure at 18,000 feet (called 500 millibars in the weather world).

Notice the large high pressure ridge centered just offshore of the Pacific Northwest and over Southern BC. This ridge has the proper placement and strength to bring a short-lived heat wave to the region. In summer, the overall pattern favors ridges like this being larger, stronger, and lasting longer, contributing to more intense heat waves.

However, regardless of the strength of this heat wave, adverse impacts are still possible, especially if you are recreating in the water. Take a look at the very informative graphic below from NWS Seattle, showing the dangers of the region's very cold water.

Consider these reminders if you're around the water while it's hot outside. Remember how cold and dangerous our waters can be!

Stay tuned for more information about the hot weather and extended forecast!

Brief Spring Atmospheric River Bringing a Wet Weekend

 FastCast--Saturday, May 4 to Thursday, May 9:

A fast-moving atmospheric river will bring a wet weekend to the Pacific Northwest. With the majority of the atmospheric river being aimed at Oregon, Washington's rain totals will be heaviest the further south you go. In the lowlands, generally expect 0.75-1.25" from Seattle southward, and 0.4-0.8" from Seattle northward. Expect rain at times from early Saturday through Sunday, becoming more showery on Monday. Some showers may linger into Tuesday. Conditions will change on Wednesday, turning partly sunny. Mostly sunny skies are likely by Thursday. Regarding temperatures, the weekend will be chilly around the lowlands, with highs in the low to mid 50s. However, Saturday's highs north of Everett will likely reach the mid 60s. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s on Monday and Tuesday, before reaching the low 60s on Wednesday. By Thursday, a warmup is likely to begin, with highs reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. Expect lows through Thursday to remain in the low to mid 40s. Even warmer conditions, likely the warmest of 2024 so far, are possible for Mother's Day weekend, so stay tuned!

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A brief spring atmospheric river is impacting the Pacific Northwest, especially Western Oregon, with significant precipitation this weekend. Let's take a look at the forecast!

We'll start with the European model forecast for precipitable water late Friday night, showing the location of the heavier concentrations of water vapor (aka...the atmospheric river).

Notice how the highest concentrations of moisture are directed at Western Oregon, with some elevated moisture content making its way into Western Washington.

Now, let's look at rain totals. First, we'll take a look at the European model forecast for total rain through Monday night.

From Skagit County southward, this forecast shows 0.5-1" of rain, with areas from Olympia to Portland and on the coast getting 1.25-2", and the Willamette Valley and Oregon Coast being soaked by 2-2.5"! Whatcom and San Juan Counties will likely receive 0.3-0.5". Even Eastern Washington will get in on the rain, with most of the region getting 0.4-0.8", except 0.75-1.25" along and south of I-82.

We'll compare this to the NWS NBM high-resolution model forecast, seen below, also showing total rain through Monday night.

This forecast shows a similar picture for the lowlands and coast, with the Willamette Valley getting 1.4-2", and the Oregon Coast getting 1.5-2.5". Eastern Washington's highest amounts are confined to areas south of I-90 and near the Idaho border, with totals of 0.5-1.2", highest near Walla Walla and the Tri-Cities.

Temperatures will be on the cool side due to all the rain and cloud cover. Below is the NWS NBM forecast for highs on Saturday.

As rain and clouds will move from south to north, notice that highs increase as you move north through the lowlands. Areas from Everett to Tacoma will reach the mid to upper 50s, with areas north of Everett in the mid to upper 60s. From Tacoma south, expect highs in the low to mid 50s, except in the low 50s on the coast and in the Willamette Valley. Removed from the rain on Saturday, Eastern Washington will reach the upper 60s to mid 70s.

The entire region will be cool and cloudy on Sunday, as seen in the NWS NBM forecast below.

On Sunday, expect highs west of the Cascades to reach the low to mid 50s, with Eastern Washington reaching the low 50s near Spokane to low 60s near the east slopes of the Cascades. However, the Okanogan River Valley may reach the upper 60s to low 70s.

Here's the NWS NBM forecast for Monday, as the atmospheric river's associated rain begins to move out of the region.

Temperatures on Monday will remain on the cooler side, with highs in the low to mid 50s west of the Cascades, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s in Eastern Washington.

However, a significant change is possible as we move through next week. Below is the European model forecast for Thursday.

Notice the large ridge of high pressure located just north of Washington. This ridge, which will build from Wednesday onward, will set the stage for a warm end to the week and Mother's Day weekend, so stay tuned! There is a potential for the warmest conditions of 2024 so far!