FastCast--Thursday, May 16 to Monday, May 20:
After a relatively pleasant past couple weeks, a cooler and somewhat wetter pattern is returning to the Pacific Northwest. This pattern change will start on Thursday, with overcast skies and temperatures dropping to the low to mid 60s (some areas will remain in the upper 50s). Winds will increase across the area as a cold front (with little to no rain) moves through Thursday afternoon. Expect winds to gust 25-35 mph in the lowlands, and up to 40-45 mph along the Strait of Juan de Fuca and across Eastern Washington. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 60s under partly sunny skies on Friday, before clouds and showers arrive on Saturday. The weekend will be on the chillier side, with Saturday's highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and Sunday's highs in the low 60s. Monday looks to be partly cloudy, with highs likely in the low to mid 60s. More showers are likely across the area next week.
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Continue reading the full blog below!
A pattern change is ahead for the Northwest, after what has been a pleasant few weeks for the region. Let's take a look at the forecast!
First, let's take a look at the NAM high-resolution forecast for 24-hour temperature change from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 PM Thursday.
This is a significant drop...with highs likely dropping 10-20° across the lowlands and areas along the east slopes of the Cascades.
This temperature drop will be accompanied by gusty west/southwest winds across the region. Winds will be strongest on Thursday afternoon across the region, with gusty winds lingering on Friday in Eastern Washington. Below is the European model forecast for peak winds through Friday.
This forecast has been somewhat of an outlier, but shows parts of the lowlands gusting up to 40 mph, mainly from Tacoma to Shoreline. This forecast also shows westerly winds of 40-45 mph along the Strait, with even stronger winds gusting 45-50 mph across most of Eastern Washington, especially the Kittitas Valley, Wenatchee area, and around Spokane.
Let's compare this with the high-resolution NAM forecast, seen below, also showing peak winds through Friday.
This forecast shows lesser winds over the lowlands, only gusting 25-30 mph. However, it agrees with the strong winds along the Strait gusting 40-45 mph, and with gusty winds across Eastern Washington, especially in the Kittitas Valley and around Wenatchee (40-50 mph gusts). Of note is that winds in this forecast are quite strong over the Cascades, gusting 40-60 mph, which could be a threat to those recreating in the backcountry.
Now, let's take a look at temperatures. Below is the NWS NBM forecast for highs on Thursday.
In the lowlands, expect highs in the low to mid 60s (however, this is highly dependent on cloud cover...if clouds are thicker, highs will trend toward the low 60s). The coast will reach the upper 50s, while the Willamette Valley reaches the low 70s (could be lower depending on clouds). Eastern Washington will reach the mid 70s to mid 80s (warmest around the Tri-Cities).
By Friday, cooling will be noticeable across the state, as seen below.
On Friday, temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s in the lowlands, the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, the mid 60s in the Willamette Valley, and the mid 60s to low 70s in Eastern Washington.
Finally, looking ahead to the weekend, some rain is expected, especially on Saturday. Below is the European model forecast for total rain through Sunday evening.
This forecast shows the lowlands receiving 0.1-0.3" of rain, with the coast getting 0.15-0.3", and up to 1.2" in the Cascades. More rain is possible next week, which we'll explore a bit below.
We'll end this blog by taking a look at the NWS Climate Prediction Center outlooks for temperature and precipitation from May 21st to the 25th.
This gives a good inclination of the pattern that's ahead. For the Northwest, these outlooks show a 50-60% probability of below-average temperatures, along with a 40-50% probability of above average precipitation. Although this type of pattern can get dismal in spring, it is necessary to maintain good water supplies for what will likely be a hot and dry summer.
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