Very Cold New Year’s Eve Ahead, Warmup to Start 2022

After “round 2” of lowland snow brought 1-4 inches of snow to the Lowlands, another round of cold temperatures is in store for New Year’s Eve and early New Year’s Day.

Some snow melted during the day due to temperatures briefly rising to 33-36 degrees, but as of 9:50 PM Thursday, temperatures across Western Washington are below freezing (16-32°) once again.

New Year’s Eve (Friday) will have highs below freezing, as seen in the Euro model forecast below for high temperatures on Friday. 

Temperatures barely just reach freezing in the lowlands, and reach the mid to upper 30s on the coast. It will be a sunny day, so some snow melt is possible.

Temperatures around midnight will be quite cold, as seen in the HRRR forecast below. 

Expect midnight temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s across the lowlands, and frigid temperatures of 5-15 degrees in Eastern Washington.

However, a light northerly wind will be blowing across most of the area, producing very cold wind chills at midnight. The HRRR wind chill forecast is below.

Expect wind chills in the low teens to low 20s, even colder in some outlying areas. Eastern Washington will experience wind chills of -10 to 15 degrees.

If you are watching the fireworks at the Space Needle, expect wind chills in the low teens to around 20.

The first say of 2022 will bring some change, as a significant warmup is expected. Temperatures will continually warm from Saturday morning through Sunday. The Euro forecast for temperatures at 1 PM Sunday is below.

By this time, temperatures have reached the low to mid 40s across most of Western Washington, and near 50 degrees on the coast.

However, it is very important to note that in recent snow events, forecast models have warmed up the region much too quickly, so this forecast may change. Some forecasts show brief heavy snow Sunday night, something that will need to be monitored.

Whenever temperatures are consistently above freezing, expect very wet roads with areas of ponding and standing water. This will be exacerbated with the potential for heavy rain late Sunday.

Stay tuned! (Twitter link in top right of blog site).

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For information about the devastating wildfires that have destroyed over 600 homes near Boulder, CO, view the links below:

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/high-wind-fuels-fast-moving-grassfire-near-boulder

https://t.co/hiXNoZ6sv1 (The Weather Channel)

Next Snow Event Ahead & Very Cold Temperatures Continue

The next snow event for the Lowlands is ahead on Thursday, with 1-3 inches of snow over Western Washington, with some caveats.

But first, there is a slight chance of snow overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly south of Tacoma. A trace to half inch of snow is possible in these areas. Low temperatures of 20-27 degrees are expected Wednesday morning, with teens in outlying areas and north of Everett. 

Mostly sunny skies are expected on Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the upper 20s to low 30s. Fraser winds (N-NE) of 30-40 mph, gusting up to 50 mph are expected in Whatcom, Skagit, and San Juan Counties from late Tuesday to Wednesday evening. Wind chills in these areas will drop as low as -10°. Brisk winds with wind chills of 10-20° are possible in the Lowlands. (Euro model for wind chill at 10 AM Wednesday is below)

Very cold wind chills of -20° to 10° are expected in Eastern Washington as well.

Now for the next snow event…precipitation will move in from the west, creating a “snow shadow” in parts of the lowlands. The Euro model for snow through Thursday evening is below.

Expect 1-3 inches of new snow for the Lowlands. There will be a “snow shadow” extending from roughly Everett to Seattle and west toward the north Kitsap Peninsula. Expect less snow in these “snow-shadowed” areas.

Below is a helpful NWS Seattle graphic showing most possible, least possible, and most likely snowfall from their NBM model.

This generally confirms the likelihood of 1-3 inches of snow around the area.

There is a chance that temperatures will briefly rise above freezing on Thursday afternoon. This will bring the potential for brief rain/snow mix in the lowlands. There is a slight chance of freezing rain on Thursday in the areas outlined in the NWS Seattle graphic below.

As shown in the graphic, there is a 10-20% chance of this happening, so be prepared, but it is not incredibly likely.

After the snow on Thursday, another round of cold air is expected. Temperatures will drop to the upper teens to mid 20s by Friday morning, except in the low-mid teens from Everett northward. (Euro model temperatures at 7 AM Friday below).

Temperatures on Friday will not rise above freezing across most of the area, and will drop back to the upper teens to mid 20s for the night of New Year’s Eve. (10 PM New Year’s Eve temperatures below).

Roads will likely be messy (compact snow & ice, black ice, slush, frozen slush) through New Year’s Day. This will be exacerbated by the higher amount of traffic due to New Year’s celebrations.

However, with a new year comes change, and temperatures will warm into the upper 30s to low 40s by Saturday afternoon and will stay above freezing for at least a couple days. Roads will likely have a lot of water on them due to melting snow & slush in addition to rain.

Stay tuned for updates on Twitter (click the Twitter icon on the top right of the blog site to access my page).

Very Cold Temperatures Impacting Western Washington

Temperatures have dropped to frigid levels across Western Washington, behind the Arctic front that brought 3-8 inches of snow to the Central Sound. 9:10 PM temperatures are below.

Temperatures range from the single digits to low teens in Whatcom County and Eastern Washington to the upper teens to mid 20s across the rest of the region.

The Arctic air we are being impacted by originates in Canada and flows through the Fraser River Valley. This means that cold northerly winds are flowing through Western Washington. The winds are brutal in Whatcom County, where 50-70 mph gusts have occurred, along with wind chills of -5 to -15 degrees, prompting an incredibly rare Wind Chill Warning for Whatcom and San Juan counties.

Wind chills at 9:15 PM are below.

These are extraordinary wind chills for Western Washington. Notice that single digit wind chills are occurring along Puget Sound due to gusty northerly winds. This includes populated areas along the Sound, like Seattle and Everett.

Temperatures on Monday morning will be in the mid to upper teens around Puget Sound and in the 5-15 degree range in Whatcom, Skagit, and San Juan Counties. (NWS NBM model for 8 AM Monday below).

With temperatures far below freezing overnight, as you would expect, highs on Monday will barely reach the mid 20s. Temperatures at 2 PM Monday are below.

Frigid highs of 22-26 degrees are expected in the lowlands, 28-32 degrees on the coast, and 10-20 degrees in Whatcom, Skagit, and San Juan Counties.

Due to the extended time of temperatures below freezing, difficult road conditions will continue. Area roads will likely have compact snow and ice, along with areas of black ice. Use extreme caution driving in these conditions.

Check area road conditions here (WSDOT website). Stay updated by checking our local meteorologists’ pages on Twitter!

NowCast: Arctic Front Moving South

8:30 AM Sunday: The much-anticipated Arctic front is slowly moving south through Puget Sound, and as of 8:30 AM, snow is falling on a line from roughly Gig Harbor to Federal Way.

The snow band has already brought snow to Seattle, Bellevue, and Kent…as seen in the WSDOT image below.

Snow is sticking to all roads, as temperatures have been below freezing since Saturday night.

As the front moves south, two things will occur. Snow, heavy at times, and a drop in temperatures. 

The radar from RadarScope at 8:40 AM Sunday shows the snow.

In anticipation of this snow band, NWS Seattle issued a Winter Storm Warning for parts of King, Snohomish, Kitsap, and Mason counties. It is posted below.

Expect additional accumulations of 2-5 inches in these areas through around 3 PM Sunday.

In Pierce and Thurston Counties, 1-3 inches are likely, with locally higher amounts, especially in the Cascade foothills.

Regarding temperatures, the Arctic front will lower them significantly. Behind the front, temperatures range from the mid 20s in Everett to 5-15 degrees with -10 to -15 degree wind chills in Bellingham.

Below are the temperatures as of 8:45 AM. 

The blue line shows approximately where the front is. Temperatures will drop to the mid 20s behind the front, potentially even into the low 20s by the afternoon.

Lows are expected to drop into the mid to upper teens across the region tonight, with highs only in the 20s on Monday.

Stay updated on Twitter! Please stay safe & stay warm!

Lowland Snow Update: Confidence Increasing in Weekend Snow Forecast

No FastCast today…find a current forecast here.

Confidence has increased in the lowland snow potential from late Saturday night through Sunday. NWS Seattle’s Winter Weather Advisory (in effect 4 AM Saturday to 4 PM Sunday) forecasts 2-9 inches of snow from Skagit County southward. Whidbey Island and Skagit/Whatcom Counties have a Winter Storm Warning for 3-11 inches of snow and strong winds. 

This blog will take a look at multiple forecast models and how much snow is forecast.

Let’s start with the Euro model.

This prediction is likely on the higher end, representing a snowier situation with multiple bands of snow moving south through (and potentially stalling over) the Puget Sound area on Sunday. 

The NAM model shows a slightly less snowier scenario, with highly variable snow amounts based on location, and an average of about 2-4 inches through Sunday evening.

The UW WRF model (below) suggests a similar scenario, with less snow north of Seattle and more south of Tacoma.

The UW model shows 2-4 inches of snow in the metro area, with localized areas with up to 6-8 inches (purple colors).

Finally, the HRRR model (shown below).

This is a less snowier situation that is possible but somewhat less likely. However, as usual in Western Washington, all options are on the table.

Below is a very helpful graphic from NWS Seattle showing the most probable snowfall totals from its NBM model. 

This graphic shows the most possible, least possible, and best forecast. 4-6 inches looks likely for the lowlands and coast, with up to 9 inches in the foothills.

Let's take a look at the similarities between these models.

1. 2-6 inches of snow look likely across the Lowlands from late Saturday night to late Sunday.

2. Most of this snow will stick, since it will fall while temperatures are in the mid 20s to near freezing.

3. It is possible that snow will fall overnight Friday into Saturday, but the Seattle area will be in the "snow shadow" with westerly winds. Accumulations of 0.5-1 inch are possible in the Lowlands, but will likely melt away during the day.

There will be areas that receive more snow than others. Some of these localized areas with more snow will be determined by where showers set up. Others we can likely predict. 

Whatcom County will likely receive higher amounts (up to 8-10 inches) due to an earlier onset of colder temperatures. Similarly, due to exposure to Fraser Gap winds and colder temperatures, the northern Olympic Peninsula (Port Angeles area) will receive more snow (4-8 inches). The Cascade foothills will also receive 5-10 inches due to their higher elevation and therefore colder temperatures.

Additionally, very cold temperatures are still in the forecast. The models have backed off from some of the more extreme temperatures, but lows in the mid to upper teens are still expected, with single digits in Whatcom County, and low teens in outlying lowland areas. Expect the coldest temperatures on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings. Highs on these days will likely only be in the 20s to near 30.

Wind chills will keep temperatures even colder, with feels-like temperatures as low as 5-15 degrees in the Lowlands and -5 to 5 degrees in Whatcom County.

Below is an important graphic from NWS Seattle about how to stay safe in the cold.

Stay tuned for updates on Twitter (a link to my page is found on the upper right of the blog site) and for video updates on Michael Snyder's Pacific Northwest Weather Chasers YouTube channel.

Stay safe & keep warm!!

Winter Weather Update: Extreme Cold & Lowland Snow Expected

No FastCast today…find a current forecast here. 

It is now likely that the coldest temperatures in years will impact Western Washington, in addition to some lowland snow.

This blog will examine the upcoming weather threats.

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Lowland Snow:

Rain/snow mix will be possible on Christmas Eve (Friday) and into Christmas Day (Saturday). Temperatures will fall below freezing from north to south on Saturday. From Bellingham northward, temperatures will stay very close to freezing all day, and by Saturday evening/night, temperatures will fall below freezing in the rest of the lowlands. As temperatures fall below freezing, the rain/snow mix will change to snow. Below is the Euro model for snowfall through Monday morning.

Snow totals will vary significantly due to the convective nature of the snow showers, bringing higher totals under heavier showers. Generally, expect 1 to 4 inches of snow in Western Washington, with the most from Snohomish County northward. 

One thing to note…any snow that falls once temperatures fall below freezing will stay on the ground through at least Friday due to the extreme cold that is expected.

Snow forecasts and totals will likely change in the next 24 hours, so stay tuned for tomorrow’s blog.

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Extreme Cold:

Very cold Arctic air will move into the Pacific Northwest from Christmas night onward. Frigid low temperatures of 10-18 degrees are now expected in the Lowlands on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday mornings. 

Let’s take a look at the accurate European model for low temperatures.

Below are Monday morning’s lows.

The lowlands drop to the upper teens to low 20s, with single digits in the foothills and north of Everett.

Tuesday morning gets even colder.

Lows drop to the mid teens near Puget Sound, and away from the water, temperatures will be in the low teens to upper single digits. North of Everett and in the foothills, temperatures will be in the single digits to potentially near zero.

Similar, slightly colder temperatures are expected on Wednesday morning as well.

Lows in the single digits to low teens are expected in the lowlands, except slightly warmer near Puget Sound. 

Daytime highs will struggle to reach 30 degrees, with some forecasts keeping high temperatures below 25-28 degrees on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

“Feels like” temperatures will likely be 5-20 degrees for days on end, potentially colder.

The mountains will be incredibly cold, with lows of 5 to -10 at the passes and in mountain towns like Leavenworth and Cle Elum. Highs in these areas will struggle to reach 20 degrees.

These temperatures are as hazardous, likely even worse, than the June heat wave. It is important to take safety precautions, such as dripping your faucets and protecting at-risk individuals and pets.

Check the link below for cold weather safety from the NWS.

NWS Cold Weather Safety

Updates can be found on Twitter and on Michael Snyder’s Pacific Northwest Weather Chasers YouTube channel.

Major Cold Wave & Potential Snow in the Lowlands

FastCast—Wednesday, Dec. 22 to Saturday, Dec. 25:

On Wednesday, temperatures will reach the upper 40s to low 50s for the last time in 2021. The next system arrives late Tuesday, continuing through Thursday. The main impacts will be rain and mountain snow. Expect 0.5-1.25 inches of rain across Western Washington through Thursday, except less in the Olympic rain shadow. The mountains will receive 8-24 inches of snow through Thursday. Expect 12-18 inches at Snoqualmie Pass, and up to 24 inches at the higher passes and ski areas. Breezy winds gusting 25-35 mph are possible through Friday. Another system with rain and mountain snow arrives on Friday, continuing into Christmas Day. This system’s forecast is tricky, but generally expect precipitation to begin as rain on Christmas Eve, potentially transitioning to mix overnight. Rain or rain/snow mix will likely fall on Christmas, before potentially transitioning to snow late on Christmas as temperatures fall below freezing. Expect highs in the upper 40s-low 50s on Wednesday, then in the low to mid 40s on Thursday and Friday, and then in the upper 30s on Christmas. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s. Continue reading the full blog below for information on potentially impactful winter weather ahead.

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Around Christmas, a significant pattern change will take place in Western North America. High pressure will build offshore and over interior British Columbia, funneling arctic air into the Pacific Northwest. 

This is shown below on the Euro model’s forecast for temperature anomalies at 5,000 feet on Dec. 30th.

Temperatures 5,000 feet above the surface are expected to be 20-25°C (~60-70°F) below average.

As you would expect, this will fuel a potential for very cold temperatures in the lowlands. Multiple days below freezing, with highs in the 20s to low 30s and lows in the mid teens to mid 20s.

Below is the Euro temperature forecast for Sunday evening.

Think that’s cold? It’s just an appetizer to what’s in the forecast by Tuesday morning.

While these lows in the single digits to low teens may seem extreme, forecast models have been consistently showing very cold temperatures over the past few days, meaning that this is a possibility that needs to be considered. 

Regardless, temperatures in the 20s can cause pipes to burst and can lead to significant problems for people and pets left outside. Stay tuned for more on this situation.

Now for the chances of snow…let’s take a look at accumulated snowfall (not what will necessarily stick to the ground) through Monday morning.

The Euro model (above) shows 1-4 inches of snow in the lowlands and more from Everett northward.

The GFS model (below) shows more snow than the Euro.

The GFS shows 2-8 inches in the lowlands, with more north of Everett. 

A couple things to note about snow…

1. A White Christmas is not looking too likely, with the highest chances of snow being from Christmas night onward.

2. Snow is still quite uncertain (more uncertain than the cold) and will need to be monitored.

Stay tuned for more updates about this evolving situation. Updates can be found on Twitter and on Michael Snyder’s Pacific Northwest Weather Chasers YouTube channel.

More Rain & Mountain Snow Ahead

FastCast—Monday, Dec. 20 to Wednesday, Dec. 22:

After a brief break in the weather, even featuring some sun, on Sunday, more rain & mountain snow is ahead to start this week. Expect a chilly and rainy day in the lowlands on Monday, with highs only reaching the upper 30s. Brief rain/snow mix is possible on higher hills on Monday morning, but this is not likely. Precipitation will decrease in coverage north of Seattle. Areas from Seattle south will receive 0.3-1.0 inches of rain on Monday and Tuesday, and the mountains (mainly from Snohomish County south) will receive another 8-18 inches of snow. The next system arrives Tuesday evening, bringing another round of rain (0.25-1.25”) and mountain snow (at least 5-10 inches). Breezy conditions, with gusts up to 30 mph, are expected on Wednesday as well. Expect highs in the low 40s on Tuesday and upper 40s on Wednesday. Continuous, potentially significant cooling is expected toward the end of the week.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

The mountains have been hammered with snow in the past couple weeks. Saturday brought significant snow to the passes yet again, and eventually prompted the simultaneous closure of Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes on Saturday evening. 

In the photo below from Gunner Hicks, taken Saturday afternoon, you can see compact snow & ice on I-90, resulting in heavy traffic.

This scene will likely be repeated in the upcoming days, with more systems bringing snow to the mountains and rain to the lowlands. 

Expect a chilly day Monday, with highs only reaching the upper 30s. Biting north winds from the Fraser River Valley will keep wind chills in the low to mid 30s, except in the low 20s to low 30s in Whatcom and San Juan Counties.

Brief rain/snow mix is possible in the Lowlands early Monday morning, mainly on higher hills, but this doesn’t look like a very likely possibility.

Below is the HRRR forecast for rain through midday Tuesday.

Since precipitation is moving up from the south, a number of forecasts show a sharp cutoff in rain totals between Tacoma and Seattle. The HRRR shows nearly 1 inch in Tacoma, but only 0.2” in Seattle.

The HRRR forecast for snow is similar, showing a sharp cutoff in totals north of Stevens Pass.

Expect 8-18 inches at the passes through midday Tuesday. 1-7 inches of snow are also expected in Eastern Washington, mainly south of Spokane. 

The next system arrives late Tuesday, with another round of rain and mountain snow, though this system will be slightly warmer.

There is a potential for significantly colder air and chances of snow in the lowlands beginning around Christmas. This is still quite uncertain, and details are changing constantly. Stay tuned for further updates!

Western Washington weather updates can be found at local storm chaser/meteorologist Michael Snyder’s YouTube channel, Pacific Northwest Weather Chasers. He has informative briefings and live updates!

Rain, Wind, and Mountain Snow Expected on Saturday

FastCast—Saturday, Dec. 18 to Sunday, Dec. 19:

Another active Saturday is ahead, with rain, gusty winds, and mountain snow. Rain will be steady from late Friday through midday Saturday, totaling 0.75-1.25 inches. Winds will pick up overnight, peaking mid to late morning, then slowly diminishing through the afternoon as the front passes. Expect gusts up to 50 mph on the coast and in the North Sound, and up to 60 mph around Admiralty Inlet. Gusts of 35-45 mph are expected in the Lowlands, strongest near the water. Another round of mountain snow is expected as well. Expect 12-18 inches at the Passes, except 18-24 inches at Stevens Pass. Over two feet will fall at higher elevations (above 6,000 feet). Expect another difficult travel weekend on the passes, especially with added traffic for ski season and the holidays. Most snow will fall Saturday afternoon onward, and at Snoqualmie Pass, brief freezing rain, then all rain is expected until Saturday afternoon. Temperatures in the lowlands will rise to the upper 40s to low 50s in the lowlands on Saturday, cooling to the low 40s by Sunday. Lows will be in the mid 30s. 

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Continue reading the blog below!

For the second weekend in a row, an active Saturday is expected. Rain, winds, and mountain snow are in the cards.

Below is the HRRR forecast for rain through 12 AM Sunday.

Expect around 0.75-1 inch of rain around the lowlands, with more on the coast/North Sound (1-3 inches) and less in the Olympic rain shadow.

Winds will increase as the cold front approaches. Expect winds to peak in the early morning in the North Sound and mid to late morning in the lowlands. Gusts will reach 45-50 mph on the coast/North Sound, 50-60 mph around Admiralty Inlet, and 35-45 mph in the lowlands (highest near water).

Below is the HRRR forecast for peak winds in the Interior Lowlands (around 11 AM a Saturday).

The strongest gusts in the lowlands (35-45 mph) are expected near the water. Isolated power outages and some tree damage may occur around Western Washington. 

For the second weekend in a row, some significant mountain snow is expected. Below is a helpful NWS Seattle graphic showing expected snow through 10 AM Sunday.

At the passes, expect the heaviest snow from Saturday afternoon onward (after frontal passage), though it will likely snow at the passes before then, except Snoqualmie Pass. At Snoqualmie, it will rain (with potential freezing rain in the morning) until the afternoon/evening, when the snow level will drop below 3,000 feet.

A colder day (low 40s) with rain beginning for the next system by late evening. The next system will move in on Sunday night/Monday, with more rain and mountain snow. 

Extreme High Wind Event in the Great Plains

FastCast—Thursday, Dec. 16 to Sunday, Dec. 19:

A ridge of high pressure will briefly bring drier weather to Western Washington from Thursday to Friday night. Chilly temperatures will continue, with highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the mid to upper 30s. The next system arrives late Friday into Saturday. It will bring rain in the lowlands (0.5-1.25”) by Sunday, along with winds gusting 25-35 mph, and another round of mountain snow. Snow levels will rise to 3,500-4,000 feet, bringing a rain/snow mix at times at Snoqualmie Pass, with 8-18 inches of snow at the other passes through Sunday. Lowland highs will rise to the upper 40s to low 50s on Saturday, but will drop back to the low-mid 40s by Sunday. Lows remain in the mid-upper 30s.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

On Wednesday, a strong low pressure system moved across the middle of the country. This system had a very intense pressure gradient in its wake, which brought extreme winds gusting 75-110 mph across a wide swath of the US. Below is the Euro model from Tuesday, showing the intense storm.

The predictions were for gusts reaching 80-90 mph. For the most part, these predictions verified, but there were some places (particularly Colorado), where gusts reached an incredible 90-110 mph. 

High Wind Warnings were widespread, as shown in the FOX Weather graphic below.

High winds were still ongoing as of the writing of this blog (7 PM Wednesday), particularly over Iowa and Illinois.

The strongest winds were observed over Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa, as shown in the NWS peak gust map below. (Click to enlarge)

Peak gusts included:

107 mph at Lamar, CO; 100 mph at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, CO; 100 mph in Russell, KS; 95 mph in Salina, KS; 93 mph in Lincoln, NE; 85 mph in Grand Island, NE; 84 mph in Boulder, CO and Dodge City, KS; and 77 mph in downtown Kansas City, MO.

Numerous gusts of 75+ mph were recorded over a wide area, including parts of Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa. The wind event is still ongoing. 

The winds were accompanied by very warm temperatures (60-75 degrees), extreme fire danger, and blowing dust. Some conditions were described as "reminiscent of the Dust Bowl" in parts of Kansas and Colorado.

The NOAA GOES-East Satellite view from Wednesday afternoon shows the blowing dust (green arrows pointing to it) and the swirl of the low center (red L).

Multiple lines of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds have also been spawned by this storm. The storm continues to do damage into the night. To view updates and photos of the damage, check out the links below: (FOX Weather has live streaming).

https://weather.com/news/news/2021-12-15-wind-tornadoes-snow-midwest-plains-west

https://www.foxweather.com/live-news/live-historic-wind-severe-weather-event-across-nation-s-mid-section

Examining Upcoming Chances of Lowland Snow

FastCast—Tuesday, Dec. 14 to Thursday, Dec. 16:

After an active weekend, we have calmed down (and cooled down), and multiple slight chances of lowland snow are possible this week. The best chances of lowland snow will be Monday night/Tuesday morning and Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Both these times will have marginal chances for snow, with very light and brief accumulations possible. The best chance of snow will be on the Kitsap Peninsula and along Hood Canal. Areas on the Olympic Peninsula and from Olympia westward also have a chance for light snow. In the metro area, the best chance of snow will be where heavier showers set up. Heavier showers drop the snow levels and mix snow and sometimes ice pellets down to the surface. Generally, the best chance of snow will be on higher hills. Regardless of if it snows, there will be rain showers, with 0.2-0.7” of rain by Wednesday evening. It will also be chilly, with highs in the low 40s and lows in the low to mid 30s. Additionally, the mountain passes will receive 4-6 inches of snow by Wednesday as well.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

Western Washington is stuck in a persistent cold pattern, and with such patterns inevitably will come some chances at lowland snow, as is the case this week. 

As usual in Western Washington, your chance at seeing snow depends greatly on location. This blog will examine several forecast models for snowfall (not necessarily the same amount that sticks) through Wednesday night. 

The highest probabilities for snow showers are Monday night/Tuesday morning and Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. These chances are marginal, at best.

Let’s start with the Euro model. This is the most favorable for Western Washington snow, showing at least a dusting around the area by Wednesday evening. The Euro thinks most of this snow will fall Tuesday evening in the lowlands.

This, however, is just one forecast. Next is the high resolution HRRR forecast for the same time (through Wednesday night).

The HRRR shows no snow south of Seattle, but some accumulations between Seattle and Mount Vernon. 

The high resolution NAM model (below) shows a relatively similar picture as the HRRR does. 

The NAM shows some spotty accumulations between Seattle and Tacoma and from Everett northward.

Looking through the models, there are some consistencies. Expect at least 0.5” of snow on the Kitsap Peninsula and along Hood Canal. There is also a chance of snow from Olympia westward, according to the forecast models. The I-5 corridor is the big question mark.

For the metro area, below is a helpful graphic from NWS Seattle showing the probability of at least 0.1” of snow through Thursday night.

This is quite helpful in showing just how marginal all these snow chances are…but for the snow lovers out there…extended forecasts are showing more potential snow probabilities, including around Christmas, so stay tuned!

You can follow along with Western Washington weather on Twitter! You can also leave comments on this blog!

Update: Stormy Friday Evening and Saturday Ahead

FastCast—Friday, Dec. 10 to Saturday, Dec. 11:

An active Friday night and Saturday are ahead for Western Washington. Rain is moving in and winds are increasing as of Friday evening. Overnight, 0.5-1.25 inches of rain will fall, heavy at times. Winds will gust 40-50 mph in the interior lowlands and 50-65 mph in the North Sound and on the coast, with winds peaking from 10 PM to 7 AM. Power outages and tree damage is possible, especially due to the saturated soils. Mountain snow will begin overnight as well, mainly above 3,500 feet. At Snoqualmie Pass, expect a rain/snow mix, brief freezing rain, or rain before changing to snow by midday. Total snow accumulations of 1-3 feet are expected by Sunday evening, except up to 4 feet above 6,000 feet. Difficult mountain pass travel is expected, especially on Saturday. Continue reading the full blog below for more detailed updates.

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Winds:

Expect winds to increase through the evening and into the night around the area. Peak winds will occur from approximately 10 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday around the area. Below is the high-resolution HRRR forecast for 2 AM Saturday.

Winds will peak around 40-50 mph (locally higher, especially near water) in the Interior Lowlands. Peak gusts of 50-65 mph are expected in the North Sound and on the coast. Winds will diminish starting Saturday morning, but will remain gusty at times through the evening.

Power outages and tree damage are expected, especially on the coast and in the North Sound, where sustained winds may reach a very strong 35-45 mph! Be sure to secure outdoor objects, especially those inflatable Christmas decorations. 

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Mountain Snow:

Major mountain snow is expected through Sunday. The NWS Seattle graphic below shows totals from Friday night to Sunday morning.

Expect significant totals of 12-30 inches at the passes and 30-48 inches above 6,000 feet.

The wild card with this mountain snow situation is Snoqualmie Pass, where rain is expected due to the “warm sector”, before changing to snow some time on Monday morning. There is a slight chance of brief freezing rain early Saturday morning, but that is generally unlikely and will be short-lived if it occurs. Total snow at Snoqualmie Pass may be higher than in the graphic above depending on when the changeover to all snow occurs.

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Rain:

Steady rain in the lowlands is expected to begin Friday night, continuing through frontal passage, which will occur around 5-8 AM Saturday and will contain the heaviest rain. Below is the HRRR forecast for rain from Friday evening to Saturday night.

Expect 0.7 to 1.25 inches of rain in the lowlands, and 1-2 inches on the coast. Less rain is expected on the NE side of the Olympics due to the rain shadow. Flooding is expected on the Skokomish River in Mason County and is possible on the Newaukum River near Chehalis.

Stay tuned to Twitter for the latest updates from the Western Washington weather (WAWX) community!