Heavy Mountain Snow & Colder Temperatures as Active Weather Returns

FastCast—Friday, mar. 31 to Monday Apr. 3:

Active and colder weather is back in the Pacific Northwest. Highs on Friday will drop into the mid to upper 40s, with rain returning by evening. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms will persist through Monday, with the heaviest precipitation likely from Friday night to Saturday morning. Expect rain totals by late Sunday of 0.5-1.25” for the lowlands, highest in the Cascade foothills and under Convergence Zone bands (likely between Seattle and Arlington), and 2-3” on the coast. Mountain snow will be the biggest impact of this system. Generally, expect 12-18” of snow at the passes through late Sunday, with the heaviest snow from late Friday to early Saturday. Snow levels will hover around 1,000-2,500 feet, with all precipitation at the passes falling as snow. In the lowlands, expect chilly highs in the mid 40s to low 50s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. There is a slight chance of rain/snow mix or very brief snow in heavy showers, mainly in the late evening to early morning hours. No accumulations or impacts are expected in the lowlands. Additionally, expect breezy conditions on Friday afternoon & evening, with gusts of 25-35 mph across the lowlands.

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A few days of active weather are ahead for the Pacific Northwest. The biggest impact will be heavy mountain snow from late Friday to early Saturday, continuing in showers through the weekend. Below is the European model’s forecast for total snow through Sunday night.

Expect 12-18” in the Passes, with 2-8” in the Oregon Coast Range. Travel impacts are likely, mainly from late Friday through early Saturday. Snow will turn more showery from Saturday morning onward, which is why there are some locations in the lowlands showing snow on this forecast. Lowland snow accumulation is highly unlikely, but brief snow or rain/snow mix is possible in heavier showers, mainly in the mornings and evenings/overnight.

This system and showers this weekend will bring rain for the entirety of Western Washington, as seen on the European model’s forecast for total rain through late Sunday.

In the lowlands, expect 0.5-1.25”, with the highest amounts in the foothills and from Everett northward. The coast will receive 2-3”, and the Willamette Valley will get 1-2”. Eastern WA will pick up 0.1-3”, except 0.4-0.9” from Walla Walla to Spokane and eastward.

In addition to the rain and significant mountain snow, you will notice a major cooldown, with high temperatures over 10 degrees below average. Below is the European model forecast for highs on Friday.

Lowland highs will drop all the way to the mid 40s. Some locations will reach the upper 40s. Eastern Washington won’t be much better off, only in the mid 40s to low 50s on Friday. Similar temperatures statewide are expected to continue through Monday.

Breezy conditions are also expected across the lowlands on Friday evening, prior to the frontal passage late Friday night (which will change precipitation from steady to showery). Below is the high-resolution NAM forecast for gusts at 8 PM Friday.

Breezy conditions are expected across the area, with gusts of 30-35 mph expected, except up to 40 mph along the coast and near Puget Sound.

Finally…a glimmer of hope for more spring-like weather ahead in April! The latest NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature outlook for April 7-13 is below.

At long last, one of these outlooks shows a 33-40% probability of above average temperatures for April 7-13! This is progress toward more seasonable weather. Stay tuned!

Steady Cooldown & Active Weather Ahead

FastCast—Wednesday, Mar. 29 to Sunday, Apr. 2:

Gap winds brought gusts of 25-45 mph across the region on Tuesday, with some power outages, mainly in Federal Way and West Auburn. Conditions will be partly cloudy and warm (upper 50s to low 60s) on Wednesday, but then the cooldown begins. Conditions will remain mostly cloudy, with highs dropping to the low to mid 50s on Thursday. A system arrives on Friday, bringing steady rain and breezy conditions. Highs will drop to the mid to upper 40s from Friday to Sunday, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Rain totals by Sunday night will range from 0.6-1.3” across the lowlands, with some rain shadowing around the Sound from Tacoma to Whidbey Island. The foothills will get 1-1.5”, and the coast will get 2-3”. Additionally, expect significant mountain snow, with totals of 8-16 inches at the Passes by Sunday night. 

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Another period of active weather is ahead for the Pacific Northwest, but a couple calm days are expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Let’s take a look at Wednesday’s high temperatures from the European model.

Expect lowland and coastal highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. This model has been a tad too cold recently, so I’d add a couple degrees to these readings. Eastern Washington will warm up to the low 50s to low 60s.

Conditions will cool in the lowlands on Thursday, as seen in the European model forecast below.

On Thursday, expect highs in the low to mid 50s in the lowlands and the mid to upper 40s on the coast. Eastern Washington will be warmer, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s (warmest near the Tri Cities).

Friday brings a significant cooldown across the state, with similar temperatures to continue through Sunday (at least). The European model forecast is below.

Lowland and coastal highs will drop to the low to mid 40s (some locations in the upper 40s), which is nearly 10 degrees below average. Eastern Washington won’t be much better, with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.

As you’d expect, this significant drop in temperatures on Friday will be accompanied by rain. Expect rain at times from Friday morning through Sunday night, heaviest from Friday evening to Saturday morning. Rain totals through Sunday night are below, from the European model forecast.

This will be some needed precipitation for the region, since we have been generally below average over the last few months. In the lowlands, expect 0.6-1.3 inches, with some rain shadowing from Tacoma to Whidbey Island, mainly near the Sound. Outside of these areas, expect 0.9-1.5”. On the coast, expect 2-3 inches, and expect 0.1-0.5” in Eastern Washington, most near the Blue Mountains and Idaho border. The Willamette Valley and SW WA will pick up 1.5-2” as well.

With temperatures being so much below average, mountain precipitation will likely be snow, not rain. Snow levels will hover between 1,500 and 2,500 feet from Friday to Sunday. Below is the total snow forecast from the European model through Sunday night.

Expect significant snow for late March and early April, with Snoqualmie, Stevens, and White Passes picking up 8-16” of snow, potentially more if heavier showers set up.

In short…an active weather pattern is ahead. Details regarding total precipitation amounts, winds, and potential heavy showers/thunderstorms are still coming into focus, so stay tuned for Thursday night’s blog!

Cold Monday Morning, Upcoming Gap Winds

FastCast—Monday, Mar. 27 to Friday, Mar. 31:

Despite being a week into spring, Monday morning will feel more winter-like, with lows dipping to the upper 20s to low 30s across the lowlands. For those with sensitive plants, be aware that frost is likely. However, high temperatures through Thursday will be on the warmer side. Expect partly to mostly cloudy days with lowland highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, sometimes cooler by the water, and warmer near the foothills. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. A strong low pressure system will develop off the OR/CA border by Tuesday morning. This will cause a large difference in pressure across the Cascades, bringing strong gap winds. Winds will increase late Monday, with peak winds from mid-morning to early evening on Tuesday. As usual, these winds will be localized, with 30-45 mph gusts expected in Whatcom & San Juan Counties, 25-35 mph gusts from Mount Vernon to Everett, calmer conditions from Everett to Seattle, and gusts of 35-45 mph from South Seattle to Puyallup, with a very sharp cutoff. The strongest winds will reach 40-55 mph, in the Cascade Foothills from Gold Bar to Orting. Conditions will calm by early Wednesday morning. Rain will return to the area on Friday afternoon, with temperatures dropping as well. Friday’s highs will only reach the upper 40s to low 50s.

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A cold Monday morning is expected for Washington state, as seen below in the European model forecast.

Expect morning lows in the lowlands to drop to the upper 20s to low 30s, with warmer lows along the Sound and on the coast. Eastern Washington will drop into the mid 20s to low 30s. 

Conditions will get interesting on Tuesday. A strong low pressure system will set up off the Oregon/California border, as seen below in the UW WRF model forecast for 4 AM Tuesday.

The strength of this storm (record breaking for this time of year), will cause a strong cross-Cascade pressure gradient, which will accelerate winds through the mountain gaps. I added a black arrow to the map to show how our winds will pull toward the low center.

How strong will the winds be? Let’s take a look at the high-resolution NAM forecast, showing winds at 10 AM Tuesday.

The NAM is calling for winds gusting 30-40 mph for most areas from the Fraser River Gap (Lower Mainland of BC & Whatcom County) all the way south to Puyallup, with some areas of lower winds, mainly Western Skagit County, Whidbey Island, the NE Olympic Peninsula, and the Northern Kitsap Peninsula. 

Meanwhile, the HRRR high-resolution forecast has stronger winds for the region, seen at 11 AM Tuesday.

This forecast shows winds gusting up to 45 mph for the Fraser River Gap, with 25-35 mph gusts for areas from Everett to Seattle. The strongest winds in this forecast are in the foothills, from Gold Bar to Orting, with gusts of 45-55 mph, and from South Seattle to Puyallup, with gusts of 35-45 mph.

Some tree damage and isolated power outages are possible with this event, most likely in Whatcom County and along the Cascade Foothills. 

One positive of these winds is that they are downslope winds, which compress the air as they descend the slopes, bringing warmth! This is seen in the European model forecast for Tuesday’s highs.

Expect a warm day across the lowlands on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, warmest near the foothills, where the effects of downslope winds are greatest.

Chilly & Showery Weekend, Warmer Week Ahead

 FastCast—Saturday, Mar. 25 to Thursday, Mar. 30:

The chilly and showery pattern of the past few days will continue into this weekend, especially on Saturday. Expect showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms on Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Showers (and clouds) will decrease through Sunday, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s (coldest from Seattle north). Expect 0.1-0.4” of showers through Sunday night, with isolated higher amounts possible under Convergence Zone bands. Areas on the coast will pick up 0.5-1.25” due to more persistent showers. In the mountains, expect 6-10” of snow overnight at Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes. Travel impacts are possible, especially late Friday through early Saturday, with snow diminishing through the day Saturday. Conditions warm up and dry out for most of next week. Expect partly cloudy skies, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s from Monday to Thursday. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, except in the low 30s on Monday morning (potentially in the upper 20s in outlying areas). 

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A chilly and active period will continue in Western Washington, with more showers and mountain snow. Let’s take a look at the forecast, starting with the snow. The European model forecast is below, showing total snow through 8 AM Sunday.

Expect 6-10” at Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes, with most of it falling from late Friday to early Saturday. 2-6” are possible in the Oregon Coast Range, plus brief flurries or rain/snow mix for the Eastern Lowlands/Cascade foothills and Willamette Valley, mainly in heavier showers.

Next, the forecast for total rain through Sunday night from the NAM high-resolution forecast.

Generally, expect 0.1-0.4” of rain for the lowlands, with isolated higher totals (0.5-1”) under Convergence Zone bands. Also, notice rain shadowing from Olympia to Seattle and downwind of Vancouver Island, forming a lesser Convergence Zone from Victoria BC to Mount Vernon.

Has it felt cold recently? It definitely is. Below is the European model’s forecast for temperature departure from average on Saturday afternoon. 

Temperatures are 5-15º below average across WA & Western OR, with Eastern OR, the southern half of Idaho, and most of NV, UT, and WY, will be a whopping 15-25º below average!

Temperatures will stay on the chilly side for awhile in Washington, as seen in the European model forecast for highs on Saturday.  

Expect the lowlands to only reach the mid to upper 40s, with Eastern Washington in the low 40s to near 50º.

Lows on Sunday morning will be cold across the state, as seen in the European model forecast below.

Expect lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s for the lowlands, coldest away from the water and from Seattle northward. Eastern WA will drop to the mid 20s to low 30s.

Monday morning’s lows will be even colder, as seen in the European model forecast below.

Expect Monday morning’s lows to be in the upper 20s to low 30s across the lowlands, with some isolated outlying areas dropping into the mid 20s. Eastern WA will drop to the mid 20s to near 30º. Frost is expected across the state.

However, highs will increase by Tuesday, as seen in the European model forecast below.

Expect lowland highs reaching the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday, with slightly cooler conditions on Monday (low to mid 50s), but getting warmer for Wednesday and Thursday (upper 50s to low 60s)!

However, the extended forecast shows that below average temperatures are likely to continue, as seen in the NWS Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook below, valid March 30 to April 3.

This outlook shows a 50-70% probability of below average temperatures across Washington to end March and begin April.

However, between now and then are a few warm days next week!

Rain Returns, Midweek Break, Cold Extended Forecast

FastCast—Monday, Mar. 20 to Friday, Mar. 24:

After a warm few days, rain is returning to Western Washington. Expect steady rain and showers at times from late Sunday night through late Monday, totaling 0.2-0.5” around the lowlands, with isolated higher totals possible. Monday’s highs will be in the low 50s, with lows in the low 40s. Much nicer weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s (isolated spots may reach the low 60s), with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Rain and significantly below average temperatures are likely for Thursday and Friday, with highs only reaching the upper 40s and lows in the mid 30s. Stay tuned for more updates!

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Rain is back after a few nice days, but a brief break with sun isn’t too far behind. Let’s take a look at the forecast.

Below is the European model forecast for rain through Wednesday night (though most will fall by early Tuesday morning).

Generally, expect 0.2-0.5” across the region, with some isolated higher totals possible. Also note that Eastern Washington will receive 0.1-0.6”, most near the Cascades. No rain is expected from Spokane northward.

Since temperatures are still on the cooler side, mountain snow is expected, mainly through early Tuesday morning. The European model forecast is below.

This will generally be light snow, and impacts to the passes aren’t going to be significant. Expect 2-6” at the passes through early Tuesday.

However, better weather is coming. The European model forecast below shows high temperatures on Wednesday (note that Tuesday will be similar, just a tad cooler).

Expect partly to mostly sunny conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday, with lowland highs in the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday and in the upper 50s to low 60s on Wednesday.

The remainder of the week (Thursday, Friday, and Saturday) will have highs significantly below normal, likely only reaching the upper 40s. Beyond Saturday (25th), there is high confidence in continued below average temperatures. The NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature outlook is below, for March 25-29.

This outlook shows a 70-90% chance of below average temperatures through the end of March across the Pacific Northwest. Generally, this means highs will struggle to reach the low 50s. Stay tuned!

Brief Warm Spell, Cooler & Wetter Next Week

FastCast—Friday, Mar. 17 to Monday, Mar. 20:

Friday and Saturday will be the warmest days of 2023 so far in Western Washington! Expect highs on Friday in the upper 50s to low 60s, and then in the low to mid 60s on Saturday! Both days will be partly-mostly sunny, with high clouds at times. Additionally, expect lows in the low to mid 30s on Friday morning. However, conditions change on Sunday, with increasing clouds, highs down to the mid 50s, and showers by evening. Showers look to become more consistent next week, with highs dropping further to the upper 40s to low 50s. 

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A couple nice & warm days are ahead for Western Washington, likely the warmest of 2023 so far! Let’s take a look at the European model forecast for Friday.

On Friday, expect highs in the lowlands to reach the upper 50s to low 60s, with some colder readings near the water. 

Saturday will be a great day, with pleasantly warm temperatures and partly-mostly sunny skies! Take a look at the European model forecast below.

Expect Saturday’s highs to be in the low to mid 60s across the lowlands, with the warmest temperatures away from the water and from Olympia southward. 

Unfortunately, the nice weather won’t last. Extended forecasts indicate that persistent cooler temperatures and wetter conditions will start Sunday evening and remain through next week.

A good way to see the extended outlook is the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for March 22-26.

Let’s start with temperature.

The CPC outlook shows a 50-70% probability of below average temperatures for Washington through the last week of March. At this time of year, “below average” generally means highs in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Next, the CPC precipitation outlook, also for March 22-26.

This outlook shows a 40-50% probability of above average precipitation for the entirety of the Pacific Northwest. At this time, extended forecasts show 0.75-2” of rain for Western Washington through next Sunday. Even more of a reason to capitalize on the sunny & warm weather this Friday and Saturday!

Late Week Warmup Ahead

FastCast—Wednesday, Mar. 15 to Saturday, Mar. 18:

Scattered showers are expected, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, across the lowlands on Wednesday. Expect highs in the low 50s and morning lows in the mid 30s. Conditions will get better from Thursday to Saturday, with high pressure ridging across the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. On Thursday and Friday, expect mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Clouds will increase somewhat later Friday through Saturday, but highs will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s. However, nights and mornings will be on the chilly side. Expect morning lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s, warming up into the weekend. Enjoy the warmer conditions!

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After a chillier than normal beginning of March, we are finally going to experience some warmer temperatures in Western Washington!

Why is this happening? After weeks of troughing (constant low pressure, bringing weather systems) over the Gulf of Alaska, the trough will be replaced by a high pressure ridge. Ridges compress the air and bring clearer skies. This is seen on the European model forecast below (note the black box).

This ridge will deflect showers away from the region from late Wednesday through late Saturday, bringing a nice, warmer break from the cooler March we’ve been having so far. What will the temperatures be?

Let’s start with the European model forecast for Thursday morning’s lows. While temperatures will be warmer, clearer skies under a high pressure ridge will allow for cold nights, as seen in the forecast below.

On Thursday morning, expect lows across the lowlands in the upper 20s to mid 30s, warmest near the water and coldest in outlying areas. Eastern Washington will drop into the low 20s to low 30s.

Next, highs on Thursday from the European model (seen below).

Expect highs in the lowlands on Thursday to reach the low to mid 50s, warmest away from the water. Areas from Olympia southward have a better chance of reaching the upper 50s to low 60s.

Friday morning will be another chilly one, as seen in the European model forecast below.

Generally, expect lows in the low to mid 30s, a bit warmer than Thursday morning, but not by much. Eastern Washington will be a tad warmer, in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Friday will be the mostly sunny day we’ve all been waiting for! Take a look at the European model’s forecast for high temperatures below.

On Friday, expect highs in the lowlands, on the coast, and in the Willamette Valley to be in the upper 50s to low 60s! High clouds will slowly increase from Friday afternoon onward, but highs in the upper 50s to low 60s are expected again on Saturday. 

Enjoy the warmth!

Widespread Rain & A Look at the Extended Forecast

FastCast—Sunday, Mar. 12 to Thursday, Mar. 16:

Don’t forget that Daylight Saving Time begins at 2 AM Sunday, so set your clocks forward one hour! 

A rainy system is ahead from Sunday afternoon to midday Monday. This will be the rainiest system in the past month or so, with 0.6-1.25” expected for the lowlands and 2-3” on the coast. In the mountains, expect 6-10” of snow at Snoqualmie Pass and 10-14” at Stevens Pass. Conditions will dry out by Tuesday, with some scattered showers through early Wednesday morning. Through Wednesday, expect highs in the mid 40s to low 50s, with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Some warmth is likely later in the week, with highs likely reaching the upper 50s by Thursday! However, lows are still on the chilly side, potentially dropping below freezing Thursday morning.

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A wet system is ahead for the Pacific Northwest, with steady rain from Sunday afternoon through midday Monday. Let’s take a look at the rain forecasts.

First, the European model forecast through Monday evening.

Expect 0.5-1.1” of rain in the lowlands, with a rain shadow to the north of the Olympic Peninsula and from Bremerton to South Whidbey. The coast gets 0.8-1.25” in this forecast, with 1-1.75” in the Willamette Valley. Eastern Washington will receive 0.1-0.6”, most from the Tri-Cities to Spokane.

Next, we will take a look at the high-resolution UW WRF forecast for total rain from this storm.

The UW forecast shows 0.5-0.75” from Seattle south and 0.25-0.5” from Seattle north. On the coast and in the foothills, expect 0.75-1.25”. 

What about mountain snow? Let’s take a look at the European model forecast through Monday evening.

At the passes, expect 6-10” at Snoqualmie and 10-14” at Stevens. Travel impacts are possible, especially late Sunday to early Monday.

Conditions turn drier with scattered showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some actual warmth is possible on Thursday, as seen in the European model’s forecast below.

The European model is showing high temperatures reaching the upper 50s for most of the lowlands! Stay tuned for more information on our potential brief warm spell at the end of this week!

Unfortunately, consistent warmth doesn’t seem too likely. Let’s take a look at the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks below.

First, the CPC temperature outlook for March 19-25.

This outlook shows a 40-60% probability of below average temperatures for Washington through late March.

Next, the CPC precipitation outlook, also for March 19-25.

This outlook shows a 33-50% probability of above average precipitation through late March.

So, in general, with a few warmer days possible, generally below normal temperatures and higher than average precipitation are expected through most of March. Stay tuned!

Gusty Gap Winds, Unsettled Weather Continues

 FastCast—Friday, Mar. 10 to Monday, Mar. 13:

Due to a low pressure center offshore, strong winds have been drawn out of the gaps in the Cascades. Expect gap winds to peak at 25-40 mph for the lowlands, mainly from Tacoma to South Seattle, strongest late Thursday night. In the foothills, gusty winds of 30-50 mph will continue through early Friday morning, strongest near North Bend, Enumclaw, and Maple Valley. Expect scattered showers on Friday, mainly in the morning. Sporadic showers are possible on Saturday, with partly sunny conditions expected through midday Sunday. Widespread rain arrives later on Sunday, continuing through Monday. Rainfall accumulations of 0.5-1.5” are expected, but stay tuned for more on that storm. In general, expect highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s (warmest on Sunday), with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Additionally, expect 4-8” of snow at the passes through Sunday, with brief travel impacts possible.

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A strong pressure difference across the Cascades, due to low pressure over the Pacific Ocean, has caused gap winds to increase across the lowlands Thursday night. Below is the NAM high-resolution forecast for peak gap wind gusts, around 11 PM Thursday.

Generally, expect gusts of 25-40 mph in the lowlands, strongest from Seattle to Tacoma and around Everett/Lake Stevens. In the foothills, expect gusts of 40-50 mph. These patterns also bring strong offshore winds on the Washington & Northern Oregon Coasts. Expect peak gusts of 35-45 mph from roughly Tillamook northward to La Push.

There is a good visual representation of these winds, found in pressure maps, like the one below from the UW WRF forecast for 10 PM Thursday. Note the black lines inside the red box.

Inside the red box, lines of constant pressure are close together. The closer the lines, the stronger the wind, since winds are caused by a difference in pressure.

Peak gusts as of 10:15 PM are below.

The angled region of strongest winds is clear, stretching from Enumclaw toward Tacoma, Federal Way, and SeaTac, with another area of strong winds around Kent/Maple Valley and along I-90, with significant winds near North Bend. The strongest gusts have been 30-40 mph around SeaTac Airport and Federal Way, with 45-55 mph in Enumclaw and North Bend, and a peak of 60 mph on the ridges above Snoqualmie Pass.

Expect winds to peak late Thursday night, decreasing early Friday, except lingering into Friday morning for the foothills.

With a chance of showers on Friday, isolated showers on Saturday, and widespread rain arriving late Sunday, let’s take a look at this weekend’s rain forecast, seen below on the European model through Sunday night.

Through Sunday night, expect 0.2-0.4” of rain for the lowlands, with 0.5-1” from Olympia southward. Most of this will fall from Sunday evening onward. On the coast, expect 1-2”. Eastern Washington will receive 0.3-0.4” of rain, but this will most likely be snow from areas near I-90 and northward.

Speaking of snow, let’s take a look at the total snowfall expected through Sunday night, also from the European model.

Through Sunday night, expect 4-8” at the passes and 1-4” in Eastern Washington, most likely from around I-90 northward. The Oregon Coast Range may pick up 2-6” as well, but that greatly depends on temperature.

Finally, a quick look at the NWS Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Friday in California.

Notice that most of California has a risk for excessive rainfall, with a very rare moderate to high risk (red and magenta) for the coastal mountains, parts of the Central Valley, and the Northern Sierra Nevada. The magenta (high risk) means a 50% or greater chance of excessive rain, which is very problematic due to the massive amounts of snow that have recently fallen. 

With a potent atmospheric river already impacting California, urban/river flooding, flash flooding, avalanches, and landslides are expected. Be sure to check up on your relatives and friends in impacted areas!

Colder & Wetter Through the Extended Forecast

 FastCast—Tuesday, Mar. 7 to Friday, Mar. 10:

It has been a below average start to March, with consistent morning lows near freezing. This, combined with late evening showers, has brought icy spots and freezing fog to parts of the lowlands. This same trend will continue on Tuesday, with showers ending late Monday night, and lows likely near freezing. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be drier, with highs in the upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Showers return late Wednesday and at times on Thursday. Expect a total of 0.1-0.4” from these combined showers, most from Everett southward. Late on Thursday, a more organized system will approach, with more widespread rain, and temperatures shifting to highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s by Friday. Stay tuned!

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March will continue to be on the cold side. Let’s take a look at the European model forecast for Wednesday morning’s lows (a few degrees colder than Tuesday morning).

On Wednesday morning, expect lowland lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, with colder lows in the upper teens to mid 20s in Eastern WA, with isolated spots (mainly around Spokane and northward) dropping to the low teens.

With persistent weak low pressure centers spinning just offshore, showers will continue moving through Western Washington. This is shown below, in the European model forecast for total rain through Wednesday evening.

Through Wednesday evening, expect 0.2-0.4” of rain from Everett southward, with up to 0.75” on the coast. More widespread rain will arrive with a stronger system late Thursday through Friday, so stay tuned.

The trend toward more rain is seen below in the NWS Climate Prediction Center outlook below, for precipitation probabilities from March 12-16.

Generally, there is a 40-60% probability of above average precipitation for WA through mid-March, with an 80-90% probability of above average precipitation for weather-weary California. More flooding and massive snowfall will likely be in the upcoming headlines for the Golden State.

Next, the CPC outlook for temperatures, also for March 12-16.

The entire Pacific Northwest has a 40-50% probability of below average temperatures through mid-March. For the lowlands, extended forecasts show temperatures having a hard time getting out of the upper 40s to low 50s. 

Stay tuned, as an active March will continue across the West!