Friday, March 24, 2023

Chilly & Showery Weekend, Warmer Week Ahead

 FastCast—Saturday, Mar. 25 to Thursday, Mar. 30:

The chilly and showery pattern of the past few days will continue into this weekend, especially on Saturday. Expect showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms on Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Showers (and clouds) will decrease through Sunday, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s (coldest from Seattle north). Expect 0.1-0.4” of showers through Sunday night, with isolated higher amounts possible under Convergence Zone bands. Areas on the coast will pick up 0.5-1.25” due to more persistent showers. In the mountains, expect 6-10” of snow overnight at Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes. Travel impacts are possible, especially late Friday through early Saturday, with snow diminishing through the day Saturday. Conditions warm up and dry out for most of next week. Expect partly cloudy skies, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s from Monday to Thursday. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, except in the low 30s on Monday morning (potentially in the upper 20s in outlying areas). 

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Continue reading the full blog below!

A chilly and active period will continue in Western Washington, with more showers and mountain snow. Let’s take a look at the forecast, starting with the snow. The European model forecast is below, showing total snow through 8 AM Sunday.


Expect 6-10” at Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes, with most of it falling from late Friday to early Saturday. 2-6” are possible in the Oregon Coast Range, plus brief flurries or rain/snow mix for the Eastern Lowlands/Cascade foothills and Willamette Valley, mainly in heavier showers.

Next, the forecast for total rain through Sunday night from the NAM high-resolution forecast.


Generally, expect 0.1-0.4” of rain for the lowlands, with isolated higher totals (0.5-1”) under Convergence Zone bands. Also, notice rain shadowing from Olympia to Seattle and downwind of Vancouver Island, forming a lesser Convergence Zone from Victoria BC to Mount Vernon.

Has it felt cold recently? It definitely is. Below is the European model’s forecast for temperature departure from average on Saturday afternoon. 


Temperatures are 5-15º below average across WA & Western OR, with Eastern OR, the southern half of Idaho, and most of NV, UT, and WY, will be a whopping 15-25º below average!

Temperatures will stay on the chilly side for awhile in Washington, as seen in the European model forecast for highs on Saturday.  


Expect the lowlands to only reach the mid to upper 40s, with Eastern Washington in the low 40s to near 50º.

Lows on Sunday morning will be cold across the state, as seen in the European model forecast below.


Expect lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s for the lowlands, coldest away from the water and from Seattle northward. Eastern WA will drop to the mid 20s to low 30s.

Monday morning’s lows will be even colder, as seen in the European model forecast below.


Expect Monday morning’s lows to be in the upper 20s to low 30s across the lowlands, with some isolated outlying areas dropping into the mid 20s. Eastern WA will drop to the mid 20s to near 30º. Frost is expected across the state.

However, highs will increase by Tuesday, as seen in the European model forecast below.


Expect lowland highs reaching the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday, with slightly cooler conditions on Monday (low to mid 50s), but getting warmer for Wednesday and Thursday (upper 50s to low 60s)!

However, the extended forecast shows that below average temperatures are likely to continue, as seen in the NWS Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook below, valid March 30 to April 3.


This outlook shows a 50-70% probability of below average temperatures across Washington to end March and begin April.

However, between now and then are a few warm days next week!

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