FastCast—Saturday, Mar. 4 to Monday, Mar. 6:
Although it is March, it definitely feels like winter! There is a marginal chance of lowland snow early Saturday morning. Forecasts show that accumulating snow is most likely on the Kitsap Peninsula near Hood Canal, where 1-4” is possible. Outside the Hood Canal Area, anything from a trace to 1” on non-road surfaces is possible, with the highest chance of accumulation in the foothills. Impacts to roads aren’t expected outside the Hood Canal Area/highest Cascade foothills. Showers will continue on Saturday, tapering by late evening. By Sunday morning, temperatures will be quite chilly, with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s in the lowlands. Expect a dry day on Sunday, with dry conditions continuing on Monday. Monday morning’s lows will be in the mid to upper 20s. Expect highs from Saturday to Monday to increase from the low 40s on Saturday to the upper 40s to low 50s by Monday.
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Continue reading the full blog below!
A winter-like start to March continues in the Pacific Northwest. Chilly temperatures and showers on Saturday morning will bring a marginal chance of brief lowland snow, with the highest chances of snow around the Hood Canal Area and the Cascade foothills.
Below is the European model forecast for total snow through 10 AM Saturday.
The European model shows 0.5-1.5” of snow from Everett to Kelso, with 2-4” around Hood Canal, and 0.5-1” on the low elevations of the Olympic Peninsula. Again, to emphasize, it is very hard to get accumulations on the roads in the lowlands, but non-road surfaces can get accumulations in a relatively short time. Another 6-8” is possible at the passes through Saturday morning, mainly falling overnight.
Next, let’s look at the NAM forecast for snow through 10 AM Saturday, seen below.
This forecast shows 2-8” from Sequim to Shelton, with spotty accumulations up to 1” from Everett to Bellingham, from Olympia south, and on the coast. This is a more unlikely forecast, especially the excessive amounts around Hood Canal.
Finally, the UW WRF ultra high-resolution forecast, for snow through 10 AM Saturday.
The UW forecast shows 0.5-2” of snow from Everett south, most in the foothills. It also shows 2-6” around Hood Canal, 1-4” for the Western Olympic Peninsula, and 0.5-1” for the coast. This is quite likely on the high end, and is a definite outlier.
In summary, snow is most likely around Hood Canal, with 1-4” expected. For the rest of the lowlands, a trace to 1” of snow is possible, with impacts not expected on roads. The Cascade foothills have a higher chance of 0.5-2” of snow, with brief accumulations on roads possible, mainly above 700-900 feet elevation.
After showers move out late Saturday, it will get chilly. Below is the European model forecast for Sunday morning’s lows.
The European model shows lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, warmest near the water. Some outlying lowland locations could reach the mid 20s.
Looking into the extended outlook, below normal temperatures are expected to continue. The NWS Climate Prediction Center outlook for March 9-13 is below.
This outlook shows a 40-60% probability for below average temperatures through mid-March. This is a lower probability than previously forecast, a sign that more seasonable temperatures are slowly approaching. Stay tuned!
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