Continued Seasonable Weather to End June

FastCast—Wednesday, June 28 to Monday, July 3:

Continued seasonable and pleasant weather is ahead for the Northwest, with mostly sunny and warm conditions. In the lowlands, expect morning marine layer clouds, burning off by late morning, with sunny conditions for the rest of the day. This pattern will prevail on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. A high pressure ridge will build starting Saturday, decreasing clouds and bringing mostly sunny conditions. Highs on the weekend will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, increasing to the low to mid 80s on Monday. Through the entire FastCast period, expect overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. This pattern will set up a hot Independence Day, so stay tuned! 

Blog Note: I will be traveling through the end of the week, and the next blog will be posted by Sunday, July 2nd.

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A continued warm & mostly dry stretch of weather will continue in the Pacific Northwest. Let’s take a look at the forecast.

First, the NAM high-resolution forecast for highs on Wednesday.

Expect lowland highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s, with some areas south of Seattle reaching the low 80s. The coast will reach the mid 50s to low 60s, and Eastern Washington will reach the low 80s to low 90s.

Next, let’s take a look at the NAM forecast for Thursday.

On Thursday, expect lowland highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, except in the upper 60s to mid 70s north of Everett and near the water. The coast will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, and Eastern Washington will be warming substantially to the upper 80s to upper 90s.

Finally, let’s take a look at the European model forecast for Friday, seen below.

On Friday, expect lowland highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, coastal highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and Eastern Washington’s highs in the low 90s to low 100s, hottest in the lower Columbia Basin.

There will be some mountain thunderstorms through late Wednesday, which will bring some precipitation around the state, seen below on the European model.

This forecast shows isolated areas of precipitation in the Cascades, Blue Mountains, and along the coast (due to areas of drizzle). 

This pattern of generally sunny, dry, and increasingly warm conditions across the state will continue into July. Let’s take a look at the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for July 3-7.

First, the July 3-7 temperature outlook, seen below.

This outlook shows a 40-60% probability of above average temperatures across the state through the first week of July.

Next, the precipitation outlook for July 3-7.

Western and Central Washington has a 33-50% probability of below average precipitation, with Eastern Washington being at an equal probability, except for extreme Eastern WA, where there is a 33-40% probability of above average precipitation.

Enjoy the mostly sunny and pleasant weather as we approach Independence Day!

Typical Summer Weather Across the Northwest

FastCast—Monday, June 26 to Friday, June 30:

Seasonable and pleasant summer weather is expected this week across the Northwest. In the lowlands, expect highs through Wednesday in the mid to upper 70s, increasing to the upper 70s to low 80s for Thursday and Friday. Conditions will be partly cloudy on Monday and Tuesday, becoming sunnier for the rest of the week. Morning marine clouds are likely most days, though some spots may escape morning clouds. Clouds will become less prominent by mid to late week. All week, expect overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. Additionally, there is a chance of thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday in the Cascades and Eastern Washington. Any areas that are impacted by isolated thunderstorms may experience frequent lightning, heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and a chance of flooding. Forecasts are beginning to show warmer weather toward the beginning of July, so stay tuned!

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Typical summer weather is ahead for the Northwest, with the added feature of a chance of thunderstorms from the Cascades eastward to start the week. Let’s take a look at the forecast!

First, the NAM high-resolution forecast for highs on Monday, seen below.

Across the lowlands, expect highs in the low to mid 70s. The coast will remain cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 50s, and Eastern Washington will be on the hotter side, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

Next, let’s take a look at Tuesday’s highs, seen below in the European model forecast.

On Tuesday, expect highs in the mid to upper 70s in the lowlands (except in the low 70s near the water) and still in the mid to upper 50s on the coast. Eastern Washington will remain warm, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

Now, let’s take a look at precipitation through late Tuesday, also on the European model.

Notice that the lowlands receive no precipitation through late Tuesday. There will be light drizzle (trace to 0.1”) on the coast, but the most precipitation will be in the Cascades, Olympics, and Blue Mountains, where afternoon thunderstorms will bring areas of rain, heavy at times. The strongest storms will bring a chance of flooding in the mountains.

Now, let’s take a look at the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlooks for Monday and Tuesday. 

Monday’s outlook is below.

There is a chance of thunderstorms for all areas west of the Cascade foothills on Monday, including most of the Pacific Northwest east of the Cascades.

On Tuesday, a similar situation will play out, as seen below.

Tuesday’s outlook is nearly identical to Monday’s, except the chance of thunderstorms encroaches a little bit closer to Western Washington, mainly from Snohomish County northward. 

Finally, let’s take a look at the extended forecast outlooks from the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC), showing trends for temperature and precipitation.

First, the CPC temperature outlook for July 1-5.

There is a 50-80% probability of above average temperatures across Washington for the first 5 days of July. This is part of the signal for a warmer beginning of July that I mentioned in the FastCast.

Next, let’s take a look at the CPC precipitation outlook, also for July 1-5.

The entire state of Washington has a 33-60% probability of below average precipitation, with a 50-60% probability bullseye from Seattle to the coast and from the Columbia River to the Strait of Juan de Fuca.

Enjoy the pleasant weather, and watch for mountain thunderstorm clouds!

Warmup & Overall Pattern Change

FastCast—Wednesday, June 21 to Sunday, June 25:

After a few days that felt more like early spring than mid-June, a pattern change is in store for the Northwest. The troughing that brought showers, high mountain snow, and chilly temperatures is moving away, with some ridging building in its place. This will bring more sunny weather with less clouds. The pattern will be relatively steady through Sunday (and beyond), with temperatures warming up through this week. On Wednesday, expect decreasing clouds and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Thursday will bring more decreasing clouds and highs increasing into the low to mid 70s. Friday will be the hottest day of this week, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly sunny skies. However, it is worth noting that some forecasts have shown mountain thunderstorms trying to stray into the lowlands late Friday, but that isn’t too likely. A marine push will bring more morning clouds on Saturday, decreasing through the day. Saturday’s highs will decrease to the mid 70s, but will rebound to the upper 70s on Sunday, with less morning clouds. Through Sunday, expect morning lows in the low 50s. Additionally, there is a chance of mountain thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon, on Thursday and Friday.

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A pattern change is ahead…fittingly on Summer Solstice! The trough that has brought weather reminiscent of early spring is moving away, bringing a change to warmer and sunnier weather. Let’s take a look at the forecast!

First, the NAM high-resolution forecast for highs on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, expect highs in the mid 60s to low 70s in the lowlands, in the low to mid 60s on the coast, and in the upper 60s to upper 70s in Eastern Washington.

Thursday will be a bit warmer, as seen in the NAM high-resolution forecast below.

On Thursday, expect lowland highs in the low to mid 70s, coastal highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, and Eastern WA’s highs in the mid 70s to upper 80s. Note that the Willamette Valley will increase to the low to mid 80s on Thursday.

Next, let’s take a look at Friday’s highs, from the European model’s forecast.

On Friday, expect lowland highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, coastal highs in the low to mid 60s, and Eastern Washington’s highs in the upper 70s to low 90s. This will be the hottest day of the week.

Let’s take a look at the extended outlooks from the NWS Climate Prediction Center. First, the temperature outlook for June 26-30 (next week).

Notice a bullseye of a 33-50% probability of above average temperatures centered on Washington.

Next, the precipitation outlook for June 26-30.

This is a bit more interesting. Usually, with above-average temperatures expected, you’d expect below-average precipitation. However, in the upcoming pattern, this isn’t the case. Notice a 33-60% probability of above average precipitation, highest in SE WA, Eastern OR, and Central Idaho, along with parts of NE CA and NW NV. 

So why is this showing up in the extended outlook? The answer…thunderstorms.

Below is the European model forecast for precipitation through Friday night.

Notice how almost all the precipitation is confined to the mountains and areas immediately adjacent to them. This shows that the overall pattern favors mountain showers and thunderstorms, common on warmer days, with air rising along the mountains producing clouds, showers, and thunderstorms.

Let’s take a look at the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) thunderstorm outlook for Thursday and Friday.

Below is Thursday’s thunderstorm outlook.

On Thursday, the SPC highlights a chance of thunderstorms over the Cascades and most of Eastern Washington, excluding the Columbia Basin (which makes sense, since it is removed from mountains).

Next, the SPC outlook for Friday.

Friday’s outlook specifically highlights the Cascades and areas immediately adjacent on the east & west, which is why a slight potential for lowland showers or thunderstorms on Friday was mentioned in the FastCast.

A stretch of seasonable, favorable, and relatively sunny weather looks to continue for the next 7-10 days! Stay tuned for more information!

Chilly, Rainy, and High Mountain Snow Through Monday

FastCast—Sunday, June 18 to Wednesday, June 21:

An abnormal few days are ahead for Western Washington, with cool and rainy conditions through Tuesday. Expect showers, heavy at times, with a total of 0.2-0.7” of rain across the lowlands. However, areas from Tacoma to Everett and from the Kitsap Peninsula into the foothills will be favored by the Convergence Zone, with higher rain totals of 0.5-1.5” possible, highest in the foothills. Additionally, snow levels will crash to 4,500 feet through late Monday. Areas above 4,500 feet, including Chinook/Cayuse Passes, Paradise, and White Pass, could receive a trace to 3” of snow. Higher peaks and some backcountry areas could receive even more snow. In the lowlands, temperatures will be much colder than average. From Sunday to Tuesday, expect highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. On Wednesday, temperatures will increase as clouds decrease, with highs increasing to the upper 60s to low 70s.

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A colder and wetter pattern is ahead through Tuesday for Western Washington. Let’s take a look at the details!

First, the NAM high-resolution rain forecast through late Monday. 

Notice the potential for higher rain totals in the Convergence Zone between Everett and Tacoma. These areas will receive 0.4-1.25”, while all other areas will receive 0.1-0.5”. Most areas in the Cascades will receive 0.75-2”, unless they receive snow.

Now, we’ll look at the European model, which will show a longer forecast, through late Tuesday.

Essentially, the European model shows that there will be an additional round of rain in addition to what is forecast by the NAM. By late Tuesday, most of Western Washington will receive 0.3-0.75”, with isolated higher totals around the area. Areas of Eastern Washington will receive 0.1-0.3” of rain, except in the mountains. 

Snow levels will crash as this colder and wetter pattern arrives. Forecasts show that snow levels will drop to around 4,500 feet by early Sunday, remaining there through late Monday. Let’s take a look at snow forecasts below.

First, the NAM high-resolution forecast for snow through early Tuesday morning.

This forecast shows up to 3-5” of snow at 4,500-6,000 feet, with higher amounts at higher peaks (though this forecast is likely overdone).

Let’s compare this to the HRRR model’s high-resolution forecast, seen below.

The HRRR shows a similar forecast that is also a bit overdone. The key message to take away here is that elevations of 4,500 feet will likely see snow, and much higher peaks and backcountry areas will receive more snow.

Finally, let’s take a look at high temperatures. Below is the NAM forecast for highs on Sunday.

Highs in the lowlands will only reach the upper 50s to low 60s, with the coast only reaching the mid 50s, and Eastern Washington only in the mid 60s to low 70s. Some record low maximum temperatures are possible.

As seen below, similar conditions are expected on Monday.

On Monday, highs will be nearly identical to Sunday, only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s in the lowlands, in the mid 50s on the coast, and in the low 60s to low 70s in Eastern Washington.

This is an abnormal pattern for June…but there are indications that warming is expected next week! Stay tuned!

Cool & Wet for Father’s Day & Juneteenth Weekend

 FastCast—Friday, June 16 to Tuesday, June 20:

The last sun for a few days was on Thursday, as significant low pressure troughing begins to replace a brief high pressure ridge that brought sunnier weather on Thursday. Father’s Day/Juneteenth weekend will be cool, wet, and cloudy. On Friday, expect overcast skies with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Saturday will be cooler, with overcast skies and highs dropping to the low to mid 60s. Showers are possible from late Friday through Saturday, especially in a potential Convergence Zone from Northern Pierce County to Central Snohomish County. Father’s Day (Sunday) will be quite chilly with showers, with highs likely reaching the mid 50s to low 60s. Juneteenth (Monday) will also be cloudy with showers and highs again in the mid 50s to low 60s. Through this timeframe, expect lows on the chilly side, likely in the mid 40s to low 50s. Showers on Sunday and Monday will be more widespread around the lowlands, but still heaviest and most likely in the aforementioned Convergence Zone areas. Totals are likely to be in the 0.2-0.75” range, with isolated higher amounts possible. There is even a chance of high mountain snow, with snow levels near 4,500 feet. White & Chinook Passes and Paradise could see snow, with brief rain/snow mix possible at Stevens & Snoqualmie Passes. No winter-related impacts are expected except at mountain peaks. Another system is slated to move through on Tuesday, which could bring another round of more widespread rain to the region. Stay tuned!

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Some big changes are ahead for Washington state, with weather more reminiscent of early May expected for Father’s Day/Juneteenth weekend. Let’s take a look at the forecast.

The most significant change will be the rain. We’ll look at a couple forecasts, starting with the European model forecast through late Monday (Juneteenth).

Generally, expect 0.1-0.8” across the lowlands, with a pronounced rain shadow from North Whidbey to the Central Strait, and isolated lower rain totals in non-rain shadowed areas. Convergence Zone showers will bring higher rain totals roughly from Tacoma to Everett, with 0.3-0.8” possible, and higher amounts (1-1.5”) in parts of the Cascades, Olympics, and Coast Range. Rain will be light and isolated across Eastern WA, mainly relegated to areas near mountains.

Next, let’s take a look at the GFS forecast for rain through late Monday.

The GFS forecast shows 0.1-0.4” for most of the lowlands, except 0.5-0.7” from Seattle to Skagit County in the Convergence Zone areas. This forecast also shows 0.75-1.5” for the Cascades and Olympics. 

One interesting aspect of this upcoming pattern is the prospect of light mountain snow…in June! Let’s take a look at the European model’s snow forecast below.

This forecast shows a potential for isolated mountain snow showers at times through late Monday. The actual snow level will be around 4,500 feet, meaning that brief snow is only possible at White & Chinook Passes and Paradise. These areas could see 1-3” of snow, likely less (if any) at White Pass. Brief rain/snow mix is possible at Stevens Pass and even Snoqualmie Pass. 

A good question would be what’s causing all of this chilly & wetter weather. This is all explained in the upper-air pattern. First, take a look at the upper-air forecast for Thursday from the European model.

Note the red area in my black rectangle. That is the high pressure ridge that brought Thursday’s nice weather.

Now, look at the upper-air forecast for late Sunday, also from the European model.

Wow!! This is a huge difference! The ridge has been totally replaced by a massive low pressure area (called a trough). This is a very strong trough, with temperatures at 18,000 feet at -20 to -30º Celsius! We usually see features like this in winter and early spring.

Now that you know why this cooler & wetter weather is happening, it will make sense that high temperatures will be substantially cooler than recent days. Let’s look at Saturday and Sunday’s forecasted highs.

First, Saturday’s highs, seen below on the European model.

On Saturday, expect lowland highs in the low to mid 60s, with some areas remaining in the upper 50s. The coast will be in the mid to upper 50s, and Eastern Washington will reach the low 70s to low 80s. Friday will be similar to Saturday, but likely a few degrees warmer across the state.

Temperatures decline even more on Father’s Day (Sunday). Take a look at the European model’s forecast below.

Expect lowland highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, coastal highs in the mid 50s, and Eastern Washington’s highs in the mid to upper 60s. Highs will be 10-20º below average across the state.

Stay tuned for more details on this interesting weather pattern!

Big Changes on Tuesday, Cooler & Wetter Extended Forecast

FastCast—Tuesday, June 13 to Friday, June 16:

A significant change is ahead for Western Washington on Tuesday. Highs reached the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area on Monday, with mostly sunny skies. However, expect a much different scene on Tuesday, with mostly cloudy conditions (with some sun possible in the afternoon). Tuesday’s highs will drop to the mid 60s to low 70s across the lowlands, and the influx of marine air will bring breezy winds gusting 20-35 mph in the lowlands, 30-40 mph along the Strait and on Northern Whidbey Island, and 35-45 mph in Eastern Washington. Winds will peak in the afternoon & evening. Wednesday will bring morning clouds and potential afternoon clearing, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and Thursday will be partly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s again. Friday will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 60s and a chance of showers late in the evening. Through the week, expect lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

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A much cooler day is expected on Tuesday across Western Washington, as the overall pattern trends cooler and closer to average (likely below average by Saturday, which will make for a cool & cloudy Father’s Day/Juneteenth weekend, but more on that in a later blog). 

Below is the NAM high-resolution forecast for highs on Tuesday.

Expect highs in the lowlands to be in the mid 60s to low 70s, in the mid 50s on the coast, and in the upper 80s to mid 90s in Eastern Washington.

Temperatures will drop steadily through the evening as marine air flows across the entire state. This will be a strong marine push, and will bring gusty winds for most of the region. Below is the European model forecast for wind gusts on Tuesday afternoon.

Expect gusts of 20-35 mph in Western Washington, except 30-40 mph near the Strait and on northern Whidbey Island. Eastern Washington will have stronger winds, with gusts of 35-45 mph (locally higher) in the afternoon and evening.

By 6 PM Tuesday, temperatures across the state will be substantially cooler than 24 hours previous as the strong marine push arrives. Below is the NAM forecast for 24-hour temperature difference at 6 PM Tuesday.

Expect a 10-25º decline in temperatures versus what they were on Monday across the lowlands. Notice that at this time (6 PM), the marine air is moving across Eastern WA, with a line almost down the middle of the region showing where temperatures will be cooler or warmer than 6 PM Monday.

As we continue through the week, temperatures across Washington will stabilize near seasonal averages. Below is the NAM forecast for Wednesday’s highs.

On Wednesday, expect lowland highs in the mid to upper 60s, in the mid to upper 50s on the coast, and in the mid to upper 70s in Eastern Washington.

Thursday will benefit from a brief high pressure ridge that will increase temperatures, as seen on the NWS NBM model.

Expect Thursday’s highs to be in the mid 60s to low 70s in the lowlands, in the upper 50s to low 60s on the coast, and in the low 70s to low 80s in Eastern Washington.

However, changes are afoot in the extended forecast, which goes from Father’s Day (June 18) to the following Thursday (June 22). These extended outlooks are from the NWS Climate Prediction Center.

First, the CPC temperature outlook for June 18-22.

This is quite a change from recent outlooks! This shows a 60-80% probability of below average temperatures for the Pacific Northwest around June 18-22.

Next, the CPC precipitation outlook, also for June 18-22.

This outlook shows a 40-50% probability of above average precipitation across the entire Western US, with a 50-60% probability centered on Idaho, Northern Utah, NE Nevada, and Western Wyoming.

Stay tuned for a look at the Father’s Day/Juneteenth weekend forecast later this week. Spoiler: it looks to be on the chilly side.

Will Current Dry Conditions Impact Wildfire Season?

It's easy to tell that current conditions are quite dry across Washington state. Even with rain on Friday & Saturday, overall conditions will remain quite dry. This blog post will look at the current statistics and what they mean for the upcoming wildfire season.

Let's start with a key statistic...precipitation departure from average. We will use the very informative graphics from the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), starting with precipitation percent of average over the past month.

This is not a good sign. Most of Western Washington has below 5% to about 25% of average precipitation for this time. Eastern WA isn't doing much better, with below 5% to about 70% of average in most areas, with isolated areas with 90%+ of average.

This is made even worse if you compare this current graphic to the same graphic from May 2022. The difference is staggering.

May 2022 saw 130-300% of average precipitation across Western WA, the complete opposite of this year. Areas of below-average precipitation were confined to relatively small parts of Eastern WA.

The comparison between these two graphics suggests that spring 2023 is far drier than 2022, not a good sign for wildfire season.

Another important metric when determining if wildfire season will start earlier is the snowpack. We will compare June 8, 2023 and May 30, 2022.

Below is the USDA/NRCS National Water and Climate Center snowpack graphic as of June 8.

Snowpack is currently far below normal for most of Washington's mountains, with the exception of the above-normal southern Cascades. All other regions have 2-43% of normal snowpack.

This is, again, a huge contrast to last year. May 30, 2022 is below.

Just over one year ago, Washington's snowpack was at 140-290% of normal, meaning that we currently have less than 1/4 of 2022's late spring snowpack for most areas.

What is the difference? A warm spring. This spring has seen much higher average temperatures than 2022. Let's take a look at the comparison using WRCC graphics again.

For May and early June, the entire state of Washington has been 4-8° above average, except for Island County, Western Whatcom & Skagit Counties, the coast, and Kitsap Peninsula, which have all been 2° below average to 2° above average.

Let's compare this to May 2022.

In spring 2022, the entire state of Washington was 2-6° below average, a total change from our current situation.

So...we have made it clear that rain and snowpack are far lower than 2022 and temperature is far higher this year than 2022. This increases the risk for an early start to wildfire season.

However, even though wildfire risk has increased and conditions are drier and hotter, reservoir storage is near average. 

Below is the graph for reservoir storage in the Yakima River system as of June 8th.

The blue line is our current year, the green is last year, and red is average. Notice that current reservoir storage increased dramatically in May, reaching very near average as of early June.

Let's take a look at a similar graph for the City of Seattle's reservoir system, which comprises a few reservoirs in Western Washington.

Notice that Seattle's reservoir levels also increased substantially in May, and remain near average in early June.

The key takeaway here is that despite dwindling snowpack, little rain, and warmer temperatures, water supply is good, which helps crews fight fires. 

In conclusion, current conditions suggest that an earlier start to wildfire season is possible, especially in comparison to 2022. Remember to check out the links on the right side of the blog for updated wildfire information as the season gets started. 

Showers on Friday, Brief Cooldown Expected

 FastCast--Thursday, June 8 to Tuesday, June 13:

After a hot day on Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, cooler and cloudier weather is ahead for Thursday, Friday, and early Saturday, before temperatures rise again from Sunday onward. Expect mostly cloudy conditions due to high clouds for the remainder of Thursday, with highs reaching the mid 70s. Friday will bring a chance of showers to the lowlands, with showers moving from SE to NW. Showers are most likely early Friday morning and then again late Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Most areas will likely get some rain, with the most likely amounts being 0.1-0.25". Some isolated areas will get higher or lower amounts. The coast and areas from Kelso southward will likely get a trace to 0.1" of rain. Highs on Friday will plummet to the low 60s. Temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s to low 70s on Saturday, with morning clouds and afternoon sun. Warmer conditions continue on Sunday, with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, then even warmer on Monday, likely in the low to mid 80s. Temperatures will decrease with partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday. Throughout the FastCast period, expect lows in the low to mid 50s, except in the upper 50s on Tuesday morning.

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A big (but brief) cooldown is ahead for the entire state on Friday, as showers, clouds, and marine air brings a refreshing break from a warm few days. 

Below is the NAM high-resolution forecast showing 24-hour temperature difference at 4 PM Friday.

Temperatures on Friday will be 10-15° cooler in the lowlands and a whopping 10-35° cooler in Eastern WA and the Cascades. 

So what will those highs be? Let's take a look at the NAM high-resolution forecast for Friday's highs, seen below.

This is significantly cooler than any of the past few days. Expect lowland highs in the upper 50s to low 60s (this model does run a few degrees cool, so mostly low 60s are expected). The exception will be the coast, where highs will likely top out in the mid 50s. Eastern Washington will also be much cooler, with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Now...what you've all been waiting for...the rain forecast! The first rain of June is expected on Friday for most of the lowlands, but there will be even more rain in Eastern Washington! Let's take a look at some forecasts.

First, the NAM high-resolution rain forecast through 5 PM Saturday.

Note that stronger showers will bring 0.5-1.5" of rain across parts of the Cascades and Eastern WA north of I-90. In the lowlands, expect 0.1-0.3" of rain, with isolated higher totals from Shelton to Quilcene and north of Bellingham. The southern tier of WA (East & West) and the coast will get a trace to 0.15", with the exception of the Cascades and Blue Mountains.

Next, let's take a look at the European model's rain forecast through Saturday night.

The European model's forecast shows significant rain for Eastern WA from I-90 northward, including Spokane, with 1-2" in these areas. This could cause flooding if it occurs in a short timeframe. This forecast shows more rain west of the Cascades (except the coast), with 0.1-0.3" from Portland northward. The coast and Eastern WA from I-90 southward will get a trace to 0.1".

Finally, the UW high-resolution forecast, showing total rain through 5 PM Saturday.

The UW forecast shows heavy rain for most of Eastern WA north of I-90 and around Spokane, with totals of 0.3-1" possible. This forecast shows less rain for the lowlands, with a trace to 0.15" for most of the lowlands and 0.1-0.3" in the foothills.

Overall, any rain that we can get will be beneficial across the state, since we are heading into wildfire season far drier than normal. Enjoy the brief cooldown!