Rain Returns After a Sunny Weekend

 FastCast—Monday, Nov. 1 to Thursday, Nov. 4: 

What a beautiful weekend! Western Washington had its sunniest days in a few weeks. The weather didn’t disappoint (see Mt. Rainier picture below)! With a La Niña pattern present, above average rain is expected. That pattern will definitely be present to start November. As a system approaches on Monday, expect gap winds peaking around 30-45 mph late Sunday into early Monday. Showers arrive Monday afternoon, totaling 0.1-0.3”. Another system with showers moves through on Tuesday afternoon. Then, a potentially stronger system with widespread rain & breezy conditions. Higher amounts of rain are possible along with mountain snow. Stay tuned!

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This was a sunny & beautiful weekend in Western Washington! Gusty northerly winds were observed around the area, particularly on the water (check my Twitter page for a video). It was quite sunny though, and views of Mount Rainier were impressive! I took this photo below from the Point Defiance ferry on Saturday evening.

As we start November, expect the return of rain, likely for an extended period of time. Below is the Federal Way forecast from Weather Underground.

Expect afternoon/evening rain on Monday, Tuesday, and likely Wednesday. Rain on Monday and Tuesday will be light, as weak systems move in. A potentially stronger system with more rain and breezier conditions may move in late Wednesday into Thursday. Expect highs in the low 50s to low 60s, and lows in the low 40s to near 50. 

Also, expect gap winds gusting 30-45 mph in prone areas in the foothills from Sunday night to Monday morning. Tree damage and power outages are possible. 

Below is the rain forecast through 5 PM Tuesday from the UW model.

Generally, expect 0.1-0.3” in the lowlands, and 0.3-0.75” on the coast, in the mountains, and north of Everett. 

A prolonged rainy pattern is expected, so be prepared for a lot of cloudy conditions and rain at times through the next week. November is the rainiest and stormiest month in the Northwest, so this isn’t out of the ordinary. Stay tuned!

Sunny Weekend Ahead & Atmospheric River Recap

 FastCast—Saturday, Oct. 30 to Monday, Nov. 1:

After the Puget Sound area was drenched by 1-3 inches of rain since Thursday morning, we will begin to dry out this weekend. Chilly nights and sunny days are expected, with highs in the mid-upper 50s and lows in the 30s. Frost and freezing temperatures are possible in outlying areas. Breezy northerly winds gusting 15-30 mph are possible on Saturday, strongest closer to Puget Sound. Clouds increase on Monday morning, and up to 0.2” of rain is possible by late Monday night. Highs on Monday reach the upper 50s, with lows in the low 40s. 

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What an active few days! Western Washington has been drenched due to an atmospheric river. Below are precipitation totals from Thursday to Friday.

Totals generally ranged between 1.5 and 2.75 inches, except 3-7 inches in the mountains. Rivers north of I-90 rose rapidly and flooded, with the Skagit, Snoqualmie, and Snohomish still in flood stage at 10 PM Friday, along with the commonly flooded Skokomish River that drains the SW Olympic slopes near Hood Canal.

Urban flooding was observed around the area as well, especially as a slow-moving frontal rain and dropped around 0.5-0.75” of rain within one hour (around 4:30-5:30 PM). To see a video of urban flooding in Federal Way, click here.

With no more rain likely in October, the month will end with rainfall far above average. Totals of 5-6.5” were recorded in the Lowlands, with 7-20” on the coast.

Additionally, this rainfall has caused most of Western Washington to be removed from drought coverage on the US Drought Monitor’s latest update.

Severe, exceptional, and extreme drought still remains across the majority of Eastern Washington. More rain in Eastern Washington will help to mitigate the drought, which has decreased, but not nearly enough. West of the mountains, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions remain from approximately Mount Rainier southward and in the San Juan Islands and the coastline of the northern inland waters.

Now for the upcoming forecast…below is the Federal Way forecast from Weather Underground.

Expect a sunny weekend, with highs in the mid-upper 50s and chilly lows in the 30s. Breezy northerly winds gusting up to 30 mph are possible on Saturday, strongest near Puget Sound. Clouds & showers arrive by Monday afternoon, with rain totaling up to 0.2”. A cloudy day is likely on Tuesday, then more showers arrive by Wednesday afternoon.

Enjoy the sunny weekend!

Atmospheric River Update: Heavy Rain & Breezy on Thursday

 FastCast—Thursday, Oct. 28 to Friday, Oct. 29:

Steady light rain has been falling since late Wednesday afternoon from Seattle southward. Expect a break in the rain on Thursday morning & into the early afternoon. The atmospheric river will impact areas north of Seattle earlier in the day, and will shift south by Thursday evening, bringing steady rain, heavy at times, from Everett southward. Rain may linger into Friday, but will likely end by Friday afternoon. Rain totals will be in the 1 to 2.5 inch range for much of the interior lowlands, with some isolated higher totals. River flooding is possible due to high mountain rain totals and very high snow levels. Winds gusting up to 30-40 mph are possible on Thursday as well, strongest near water. Expect highs in the low 60s on Thursday and only around 50 on Friday. Thursday will also feel muggy, as dewpoints will rise into the upper 50s. Lows by Saturday morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s as clouds clear out. For more information about rain totals, continue reading below.

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An atmospheric river is beginning to impact Western Washington. Steady light rain has been falling since Wednesday evening, mainly south of Everett. Rain will continue through early Thursday morning. 

From Seattle southward, a break in the rain is likely from early Thursday morning through early afternoon. The atmospheric river will bring heavy rain to the Northwest Interior before shifting south. From Everett southward, the heaviest rain will fall from around 1 PM Thursday to around 5 AM Friday.

Below is the UW forecast for rain totals by Friday evening.

Rain totals will be substantial to say the least. Expect 1-2.5 inches in the interior lowlands, with isolated higher amounts possible. On the coast, 2-3 inches are likely north of Aberdeen, and in the mountains, 3-10 inches are expected, most in the Olympics and Cascades north of Snoqualmie Pass. 

High mountain rain totals and snow levels around 9,000 feet will contribute to potential river flooding. See river observations here: 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=sew

In addition to river flooding, urban flooding is possible due to all the leaves in and around storm drains. Be aware of standing water and ponding, especially from Thursday evening to Friday morning.

A weak low center will move past Western Washington on Thursday as well, with gusty winds possible. See the Windy app forecast for Federal Way below.

(How to read: big numbers are sustained winds, small numbers are gusts, arrows are wind direction.)

Expect winds gusting up to 30-40 mph from Thursday morning to evening, strongest near the water. As always, there’s a chance of tree damage and isolated power outages…so be prepared!

A break in the rain & clouds is coming soon. Sunny weather is expected for the weekend!

Atmospheric River Bringing Heavy Rain & Potential Flooding

 FastCast—Wednesday, Oct. 27 to Sunday, Oct. 31:

Beginning Wednesday afternoon, an atmospheric river (narrow current of subtropical moisture…sometimes called a Pineapple Express) will impact Western Washington. The biggest impact will be heavy rain. Expect rain to begin Wednesday afternoon, lasting through early Friday morning. Rain totals will likely be in the 1-3 inch range in the lowlands and 3-10 inches in the mountains, as the subtropical air pushes snow levels up to the 8,000 foot range. River flooding is possible, mainly on rivers draining the North/Central Cascades and Olympics. The most rain (1-1.5”) is expected on Thursday. Gusty winds (25-40 mph) are also possible on Thursday. Rain will slowly taper and should end by Friday afternoon. Sunny conditions will return on Friday afternoon and through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 50s  expected this weekend!

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An short-lived atmospheric river is heading for Western Washington, likely to impact the area with lots of rain, heavy at times, on Wednesday and Thursday. Flooding is possible as well. 

Below is the UW forecast for integrated water vapor transport, essentially the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, at 1 PM Thursday.

A current of deep moisture is aimed right at Western Washington. This atmospheric river will bring steady rain, heavy at times, from approximately Wednesday afternoon to early Friday morning. Below is the UW forecast for rain through 5 AM Friday.

Those are some big totals! Expect 1.25-2 inches, from Everett southward and north of Whidbey Island (note the well-defined rain shadow northeast of the Olympics). Locally higher amounts are possible. The coast receives 1.5-3 inches, and the mountains pick up 3-10 inches. 

The high rain totals and snow levels at or over 8,000 feet (due to warm subtropical air) in the mountains will aid river flooding. In anticipation of this, NWS Seattle has issued a Flood Watch (shown below) for parts of Western Washington.

In addition to potential river flooding, urban flooding and ponding is a concern. Due to recent storms, there are a ton of leaves piled up on area curbs and in/around storm drains. This could lead to potential urban flooding and ponding on Wednesday and Thursday. 

As if this isn’t enough weather…a weak low center making landfall on southern Vancouver Island will bring the potential for gusty winds to Western Washington on Thursday. At this time, gusts of 25-40 mph are possible, strongest near the water.

For those of you who are tired of rain…there is good news! Take a look at the Weather Underground forecast for Federal Way. 

Yes…those are sun icons! A great fall weekend is in store…with mostly sunny conditions and highs in the mid 50s! Mornings will be chilly from Saturday on, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Stay tuned for more information…I will do a short update Wednesday evening with the latest forecasts regarding the atmospheric river!

Active Weather Continues Across the Pacific Northwest

FastCast—Sunday, Oct. 24 to Tuesday, Oct. 26:

Sunday was a very active day across Western Washington. We had gap winds, thunderstorms, heavy rain, and strong southerly winds…all due to the massive & record-breaking storm offshore. The winds caused upwards of 85,000 customers to lose power around the area and caused a lot of tree damage. After a lull Sunday evening, winds will increase again on Monday, gusting 30-40 mph in the interior. Dangerous conditions will continue on the coast, with winds gusting 60-80 mph and 25-40 foot waves. North of Everett, winds gusting 50-60 mph are expected. Additionally, 0.25-0.75 inches of rain are possible around the interior through Tuesday. For more information about the current active weather pattern, continue reading below!

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Sunday was a very active day around Western Washington. It was all due to the massive & record-breaking storm offshore. The storm bottomed out at 943 millibars, the deepest storm ever in Pacific Northwest waters. This is an extraordinary storm, and its ongoing effects have been widespread. 

I went to the North Bend, Maple Valley, and Covington areas Sunday morning to see the gap winds and the storm damage in the harder-hit foothill communities. The photos below are from Maple Valley and Covington.

These were two of over 500 individual outages in the PSE service area today. As of 9:45 PM Sunday, there were still 48,000 PSE customers in the dark.

Winds on Sunday were stronger than anticipated in parts of the Puget Sound area due to a cold front that moved north through the area Sunday afternoon. Below are peak gusts, some that reached 50+ mph.

Now for the forecast: wind is the big headline. In the interior (see Federal Way forecast below) expect gusts of 30-40 mph at times through late Monday.

In other locations, winds will be more intense. North of Everett, gusts will reach 40-60 mph. The coast will be where the real action is, where gusts will reach 65-80 mph along with massive 25-40 foot waves and 2-3 feet of tidal overflow at times. 

Expect rain as well on Monday and Tuesday. Below is the UW rain forecast through 5 PM Tuesday. 

Expect 0.3-0.75 inches of rain in the interior through Tuesday evening, with more (1-3 inches) on the coast, and up to 7.5 inches in the mountains. 

An atmospheric river is possible on Thursday, with at least an inch of rain for interior locations. Stay tuned as this active weather pattern continues!

Saturday Night Storm Update

 FastCast—Sunday, Oct. 24 to Monday, Oct. 25:

An active & stormy pattern is in store for the Pacific Northwest, as a hurricane-force low pressure system swirls offshore before rapidly weakening and moving ashore over northern Vancouver Island. Winds begin on Sunday, with strong winds out of the Cascade gaps gusting 40-50 mph. Winds pick up late Sunday through Monday area-wide. Expect gusts of 30-40 mph in the Interior, 45-60 mph north of Everett, (potentially up to 70 mph near Admiralty Inlet), and 50-65 mph on the Coast. Expect rain as well on Sunday and Monday, totaling 0.3-0.5” in the Interior, potentially less in some places due to the drying gap winds. Additionally, there is a chance of severe thunderstorms/a weak tornado on the Coast as well as tidal overflow and 25-35 foot waves. 

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A massive, hurricane-force low pressure system is rapidly intensifying offshore, forecast to become an incredibly deep low pressure system. This storm will deepen to 940-948 millibars, over 5 millibars deeper than the previous record. The UW model forecast for 8 AM Sunday shows the low off the coast.

There is a massive pressure gradient all around the storm (closely clustered lines), and winds will gust 90-110 mph along with waves of 35+ feet over the open ocean. 

Winds begin on Sunday in Western Washington. Due to the very low pressure offshore, winds will accelerate through gaps in the Cascades. Easterly winds gusting 40-50 mph, locally stronger, are expected from early Sunday morning through the afternoon. There is a Wind Advisory in effect for the foothills as well. See the Windy app forecast for North Bend below.

Winds will increase on the Coast and north of Everett on Sunday as well. High Wind Warnings have been issued for these areas, and southerly gusts of 50-65 mph are expected. 

In the interior, expect gusts of 30-40 mph at times from Sunday to late Monday. 

There is a chance of tree damage and power outages, especially in areas with gusts over 40 mph.

Below is an informative graphic showing expected peak wind gusts from NWS Seattle.

Now for the rain…expect rain at times on Sunday (less in areas where it is scoured out by gap winds). Below is the UW forecast for rain through 5 AM Tuesday.

Expect 0.5-1.25 inches of rain in the interior and 1.75-7.5 inches in the mountains and on the coast.

There is also a chance of severe thunderstorms and a slight chance of weak tornadoes on the coast from approximately Long Beach southward. Take caution if you’re on the SW Washington and Oregon coasts on Sunday.

Quite an active weather pattern is ahead! Stay safe and stay tuned to reliable forecasts!

Also…for those of you with barometers, due to the strength of the storm offshore, pressure will be quite low in Western Washington. Expect readings in the neighborhood of 28.95-29.10” (980-987 mb). 

Record-Breaking, Hurricane-Force Storm to Approach Pacific Northwest

 FastCast—Friday, Oct. 22 to Sunday, Oct. 24: 

Most of Western Washington has picked up 0.4-0.8 inches of rain since late Thursday. A break in the rain is expected through from late Friday to very early Saturday. By Saturday morning, expect a cold front to move through, with 0.1-0.25” of rain and winds up to 25 mph. Showers are expected through the day Saturday. The next front arrives on Sunday, with up to 0.5” of rain by Sunday evening. On Sunday, an incredible storm will approach the Pacific Northwest, forecast to have the deepest pressure ever recorded in our regional waters, equivalent to the pressure of a Category 3 hurricane. The storm will weaken as it moves toward land late Sunday into Monday, and its track is very uncertain. It is expected that winds will gust 50-60 mph north of Everett and on the Coast, as well as 35-50 mph near the Cascade gaps. Timing of winds is expected to be from midday Sunday into Monday, but even that is still uncertain. Stay tuned for more information regarding this storm!

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On Sunday, a hurricane force low pressure system is expected to move near the Pacific Northwest. 

This storm, forecast to deepen to 940-947 millibars, will likely be the deepest storm ever in Pacific Northwest waters. (For comparison, the previous deepest storm in our region was around 950 millibars). Below is the European (Euro) model forecast for the storm’s peak at 11 AM Sunday.

This is where the uncertainty comes in to play, as the storm weakens on its approach to land. The Euro is bringing the storm ashore on Northern Vancouver Island around 976 millibars. However, the GFS (American) model weakens the storm to 987 millibars and moves it ashore as a weak storm near Central Vancouver Island. 

What is certain is that the storm will generate massive waves on the coast, with up to 35 foot waves and tidal overflow up to 1 foot.

For more information about the storm, visit Cliff Mass’s weather blog & podcast:

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/10/update-on-strongest-coastal-cyclone-in.html?m=1

Due to the incredible strength of the low pressure offshore, strong gap winds are likely on Sunday. Forecasts indicate gusts of 35-55+ mph in foothill communities such as North Bend and Enumclaw. These gap winds could cause E-SE gusts of 25-35 mph in the metro area as well. My graphic below shows how winds blow through the Cascade gaps.

The E-SE gap winds will shift to southerly winds as the storm moves north. 

As of Friday evening, High Wind Watches have been posted for areas north of Everett and on the Washington Coast. Gusts up to 60 mph are possible in those areas. In the interior, the forecast largely depends on the placement of the storm. It’s a safe bet to have gusts of 30-40 mph at times from Sunday to late Monday, potentially in to Tuesday. Beyond that, we’ll have to wait and see what the forecast models predict.

The other aspect of the upcoming weather is rain. A front moving through on Saturday will bring up to 0.25” to most of the region, more on the coast and in the mountains. More rain arrives Sunday, up to 0.5”. 

Below is the UW forecast for total rain through 5 AM Monday.

Expect 0.3-0.75” all along Puget Sound. 1-3 inches are possible on the coast and in the mountains.

This is far from the end of the rain, and an additional 2+ inches are possible by the end of next week.

I will try my best to have an update by 10 PM Sunday, but my home is currently under an internet outage, so that’s not a guarantee.

Stay tuned for more information about the major storm offshore. More details will come into focus as we get closer to Sunday.

Significant Rain Ahead as Active Weather Pattern Begins

 FastCast—Wednesday, Oct. 20 to Friday, Oct. 22:

We are entering quite a rainy stretch in Western Washington. A front moving through on Wednesday will bring 0.1-0.3” of rain and winds gusting up to 35 mph. Thursday will be an interesting day as temperatures rise into the mid-upper 60s before rain (heavy at times) moves in by late evening, totaling 0.5-1 inch by Friday morning. Also on Thursday, expect easterly gap winds up to 25 mph in the lowlands and up to 40 mph in the favored foothill locations (North Bend & Enumclaw areas) due to a massive storm offshore drawing winds out of the gaps. On Friday, expect post-frontal showers totaling up to 0.3”. Stay tuned as more Pacific storm systems come rolling in through the weekend and next week. Details are evolving and uncertainty is still high.

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Active weather is ahead for the Pacific Northwest! Due to a strong & persistent trough offshore, multiple Pacific storm systems will impact Western Washington through at least the next week.

The first frontal system will reach the area by Wednesday morning. Below is the UW forecast for rain through 5 PM Wednesday.

Expect 0.1-0.3 inches of rain in most locations, and up to 0.5” in isolated locations by Wednesday evening. More rain is possible (1-2”) on the coast and in the mountains.

We will also have some breezy conditions on Wednesday, with gusts up to 35 mph possible. Below are 5 forecasts from the Windy app for Federal Way.

Expect winds gusting 20-35 mph starting midmorning Wednesday. Winds will diminish and slowly turn easterly by Wednesday evening.

The next system begins to impact the area by Thursday. This will be a trailing front from a massive low pressure system offshore. Read this recent post from Cliff Mass to learn more about this extraordinary storm offshore.

This storm, although hundreds of miles offshore, will draw easterly winds out of the Cascade foothill gaps, bringing 30-40 mph gusts to favored foothill locations (Enumclaw & North Bend areas) on Thursday. Other areas will see easterly gusts up to 30 mph.

Ahead of Thursday’s front, temperatures will rise to the mid-upper 60s across the area. Then, by Thursday evening, the next round of rain moves in. Below is the UW forecast from 5 PM Thursday to 5 PM Friday.

Expect heavy rain at times Thursday evening into early Friday morning, totaling 0.5-0.75” around the metro area, and up to 0.75-1” between Federal Way and Lynnwood.

Below is the 5-day forecast for Federal Way from Weather Underground.

Conclusion: it’ll be rainy. Expect rain or showers each day for the rest of the week. Highs will be in the upper 50s each day except Wednesday and Thursday (60s), with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Stay tuned because the active weather doesn’t stop on Friday. Rain continues through next week, with around 3.6” of rain possible by next Thursday. 

Highs Reach 70 Degrees, Metro Area in Rain Shadow

 FastCast—Sunday, Oct. 17 to Thursday, Oct. 21:

Saturday’s highs reached the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area as Western Washington remains in the “warm sector” between the warm front and cold front. Areas from Olympia to Everett will be in the rain shadow on Sunday, so expect occasional light rain and mostly cloudy conditions, with highs in the upper 50s. Mostly cloudy conditions continue on Monday, then we warm into the low-mid 60s with partly sunny skies on Tuesday. Expect highs in the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday as the next potentially prolonged rainy period moves in.

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Saturday was an unseasonably warm day across Western Washington, with highs topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s. Saturday’s highs are below.

The average high for October 16th is 60°, so most of the area was 5-13 degrees above average. For many locations, this was one of the warmest days of October, and likely one of the warmest days for the rest of 2021. 

Temperatures cool down from here, but will remain in the 50s to mid 60s over the next few days. Below is the Weather Underground forecast for Federal Way.

The biggest change to the forecast is that the metro area will be in the rain shadow on Sunday, lessening the rain from the incoming system to near zero. Clouds remain through late Monday, and by Tuesday, it’ll be partly cloudy. The next potentially long period of rain will start on Wednesday, with rain increasing on Thursday.

As I mentioned earlier, the metro area will be in the rain shadow for Sunday’s system. The system will also be falling apart as it moves inland, further diminishing the totals. Below is the UW rain forecast through Monday.

Expect 0.1 inches at most on Sunday, maybe up to 0.2” in isolated areas from approximately Seattle northward and Olympia southward. 0.3-1.25 inches are possible in Whatcom County, on the coast, and on the west slopes of the Olympics.

Uncertainty remains regarding the potential rainy period starting around the middle of next week. Stay tuned for more information!

Ridge & Approaching Front Bringing 65+ Degree Temperatures on Saturday

 FastCast—Thursday, Oct. 14 to Tuesday, Oct. 19:

Temperatures will slowly warm up as a short-lived ridge is over the area. Expect cloudy conditions with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s on Friday. Saturday gets even warmer, with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s, as an approaching cold front combines with the ridge to help increase temperatures. Rain moves in by Sunday, totaling up to 0.4 inches in the Seattle area, possibly higher in areas impacted by the Convergence Zone. With northwesterly flow aloft, the greater Seattle area will be in the “rain shadow,” meaning that the Olympic Mountains will block most significant rain from reaching the metro area. Expect conditions to dry out on Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, before more rain arrives by the middle to end of next week.

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A short-lived ridge will be over Western Washington on Friday and Saturday. Its influence will be felt most in high temperatures. Expect highs reaching the upper 50s-low 60s on Friday, then highs in the mid-upper 60s on Saturday. It’ll likely feel uncharacteristically warm and somewhat muggy, even early in the day. Temperatures continue to increase, peaking around 3 PM Saturday, as seen in the UW forecast below.

Temperatures peak at 64+ degrees across the Lowlands, rare for mid-October. These warm temperatures will be aided by an approaching cold front, which will help increase temperatures a bit before it moves through by Sunday (when temperatures will be much cooler).

Below is the Weather Underground forecast for Federal Way.

As mentioned earlier, expect temperatures to increase through Saturday, then highs decrease over 10 degrees by Sunday as a cold front and associated rain impacts the area. We dry out on Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, and lows in the 40s.

Let’s take a look at the UW rain forecast through 5 AM Sunday.

A rain-shadow effect is evident, with high rain amounts of 3-10+ inches across the North Coast and Southern Vancouver Island and 1-3 inches from Everett northward. In comparison, the metro area will likely receive 0.1-0.3 inches, except up to 0.75 inches due to Convergence Zone rain bands. The rain shadow can decrease rain totals by multiple inches over less than 100 miles!

Additionally, with warmer temperatures, snow levels will be higher, meaning not much mountain snow, except at high elevations.

If you want one more day of “warm” temperatures to enjoy outside, Saturday is your day!

Rainy Pattern Ahead

 FastCast-Tuesday, Oct. 12 to Monday, Oct. 18:

After the coldest morning of the season so far, a rainy pattern will dominate Western Washington for the remainder of the week. Expect the most rain to fall on Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Scattered showers are possible on Wednesday and Thursday, then more significant rain is expected from Friday to Sunday, with the most rain on Saturday. Expect totals by Sunday night to be in the 0.75-1.5 inch range. Conditions dry out by next Monday. Expect highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, and lows in the 40s.

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A rainy rest of the week is ahead for Western Washington. Let's start with precipitation through 5 AM Friday from the UW model.

Expect 0.3-0.5 inches in the Puget Sound area (isolated higher totals), up to 0.75" north of Arlington, and up to 2 inches on the North Coast and in the mountains.

Additionally, with colder than average temperatures, mountain snow is expected. Below is the UW snowfall forecast through 5 AM Friday. (Remember this is snowfall not how much snow stays on the ground).

Expect 2-8 inches at the mountain passes (most at Stevens Pass), and up to 12 inches in the higher elevations.

Did you feel like Tuesday was cold? It sure was! Take a look at this tweet from NWS Seattle with some stats regarding Tuesday's temperatures.

Brrr! Some locations around the area dipped as low as the upper 20s overnight! Below are Tuesday morning's low temperatures.

Besides locations near the water and in urban areas, lows of 28-34 degrees were commonplace. Many of you observed the first frost of the season this morning!

Good news...it won't be this cold for awhile in the Puget Sound area. The Weather Underground forecast for Federal Way is below.

Expect highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows in the 40s. There's a chance of rain each day through Sunday, with the least rain on Wednesday and Thursday and the most on Tuesday night, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Week to Begin Dry, Then Next Rainy Pattern Begins

 FastCast—Monday, Oct. 10 to Saturday, Oct. 16:

After rain, breezy conditions, and scattered thunderstorms over the weekend, a couple dry days are ahead. Showers in the South Sound will move out by late Sunday night, with conditions drying out on Monday. Lows Monday night/Tuesday morning will drop into the low-mid 30s across the area. Light showers move in by Tuesday evening, totaling up to 0.2” by Wednesday. More rain moves through from Thursday to Saturday, up to 1 inch. Generally, expect highs of 53-57° and lows of 40-47°, except colder Tuesday morning.

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South of Seattle, Sunday was an active day! A Puget Sound Convergence Zone moved south, bringing thunderstorms with it. Multiple lightning strikes were detected, most over Vashon Island, Des Moines, and Federal Way. 24-hour rain totals (ending 8 PM Sunday) are below.

You can tell where the heaviest cells were by the higher totals, particularly amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch between Vashon Island and Black Diamond, then 1.5-1.8 inches south of Snoqualmie Pass.

Looking ahead (Federal Way Weather Underground forecast below), a couple colder nights are expected.

Notice a cold morning on Tuesday, with lows in the low to mid 30s, coldest in outlying areas. Light showers move through late Tuesday to early Wednesday, then more rain moves in late in the week.

Looking at the extended UW rain forecast, substantial amounts are possible over the next 7 days.

The extended forecast shows 1-3 inches of rain in Western Washington, up to 7.5 inches in the mountains, and 0.1-0.75 inches in Eastern Washington, potentially more in isolated locations.

Stay tuned!

Weekend to Bring Lowland Rain & Snow at Passes

 FastCast—Thursday, Oct. 7 to Tuesday, Oct. 12:

Thursday brought partly-mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-upper 50s. A similar day is expected on Friday, with highs in the upper 50s. Clouds move in on Saturday, with rain & potentially breezy conditions arriving later in the day. Showers continue through Sunday, totaling 0.25-0.4”. A couple inches of snow are possible above ~3,000 feet over the weekend. Cooler air arrives to start next week, with lows forecast to drop into the mid-upper 30s by Tuesday morning.

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Thursday morning was one of the coldest of the season, with widespread lows in the low 40s, with the outlying areas reaching the upper 30s. Thursday’s morning lows are below.

Some areas south of Olympia and south of Graham dipped into the mid 30s, and locations in the mountains even dropped below freezing.

Let’s take a look at the forecast. The Weather Underground forecast for Federal Way is below.

Expect Friday to be similar to Thursday, with partly cloudy conditions and highs in the upper 50s. Clouds move in on Saturday, with showers beginning midday. Showers will continue through Sunday. Drier and cooler weather, with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s, arrives to start next week.

Below is the UW rain forecast through Sunday evening.

Puget Sound will be in the rain shadow, but expect 0.1-0.3 inches total. More rain is possible from Seattle northward (0.3-0.75”) and in the mountains (1-3 inches).

Breezy conditions with winds gusting 25-35 mph are possible on Sunday. Higher gusts (up to 45 mph) are possible north of Everett, mainly near the water. 

To top it off, with generally colder air moving in, the snow level will drop to 3,000-4,000 feet over the weekend. This will bring some snow accumulations to the mountains, as seen in the UW snow forecast below (first of the season in the blog).

Forecasts show anywhere from 0.5 to 4 inches of snow around the passes, and up to a foot on the higher peaks.

It has been a fast transition to fall, and La Niña is showing itself with below average temperatures and cooler weather.

Wetter & Cooler Pattern Ahead

 FastCast—Monday, Oct. 4 to Monday, Oct. 11:

The next system will move in on Tuesday, bringing up to 0.5" of rain and breezy winds during the day. Spotty showers continue into Wednesday, then we dry out. Thursday brings some drier weather. Showers and occasional rain return by Friday, with up to 0.75” of rain from Friday to next Monday. Expect highs in the 50s, and lows (coldest of the season) in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

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After a dry start to October, the next system is moving in. Expect rain to begin by daybreak Tuesday, continuing through afternoon/evening. Totals through Wednesday morning from the UW model are below.

Expect 0.3-0.5” from Seattle southward, with isolated totals up to 0.75” between Tacoma and Olympia. Expect up to 1.25” on the coast and in the mountains, and less than 0.3” from Everett northward.

Breezy to locally windy conditions are also possible with Tuesday’s system. Gusts up to 25-35 mph are possible in the interior, with higher gusts north of Everett and on the coast.

It is also getting colder, as seen in the Weather Underground forecast below for Federal Way.

Expect highs mainly in the upper 50s, except in the low 50s on Friday. Lows will be in the low-mid 40s, except the upper 40s to low 50s on Saturday night. Some morning lows in the upper 30s are possible in outlying areas on Thursday and Friday mornings.

More rain is expected to arrive by the weekend, along with continued cool temperatures. The October 10-14 temperature outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a 70-80% chance of below average temperatures.

Average highs this time of year are in the upper 50s. Extended forecasts show highs in the low 50s, definitely cooler than normal. Fall is in the air!

Cooling Trend to Start October

 FastCast—Saturday, Oct. 2 to Wednesday, Oct. 6:

Fall is in the air! Expect a nice fall day on Saturday, with highs in the low-mid 60s and partly cloudy skies. Then, starting Sunday, temperatures steadily decline, with our last 60s for the foreseeable future likely on Monday. Some weak systems will move through from Sunday to Tuesday, bringing up to 0.25” of rain to the interior, most on Tuesday. Expect sunnier & colder conditions by Wednesday, with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, our coldest temperatures of the season by far!

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The first day of October is bringing much more fall-like weather, with high temperatures decreasing below 60 degrees by Monday. 

As you would expect, the general trend is for below average temperatures to start October. Below is the NWS Climate Prediction Center outlook for October 7-11.

There is a 60-70% chance of below average temperatures, which is shown in the forecast. The Weather Underground forecast for Federal Way is below.

As I said earlier, a few weak systems will bring light rain to Western Washington from Sunday to Tuesday. Then, temperatures cool down to the mid 50s, with lows dipping to the upper 30s to low 40s, our coolest temperatures since April.

Enjoy the transition to fall! It will be quite noticeable, especially temperature-wise.