Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Chance of Showers Overnight & Another Round of California Smoke

Tuesday was mostly sunny, but you probably noticed smoke aloft moving in throughout the day. It was most apparent as the sun sank lower in the sky, as seen around 7 PM in Federal Way.


The sun became increasingly red/orange, and the layer of smoke was evident on the horizon. We'll talk about smoke soon, but first the forecast.

Below is the Federal Way forecast from Weather Underground.


There is a chance of showers overnight due to a system moving through. Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s from Thursday to Sunday. Low temperatures decrease from the upper 50s on Tuesday to the upper 40s by Sunday night.

Regarding that chance of showers overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, there is also a slight chance of thunderstorms from 2-8 AM Wednesday. Instability doesn't look great, so this chance isn't very likely.

However, some rain is possible. Below is the 24 hour rain forecast from the UW model, ending 5 AM Wednesday.


Let's just say that this will be very little rain, with a trace to 0.03 inches for Puget sound and up to 0.2 inches for parts of the mountains & coast.

I don't know about you, but I am very excited for the day when we have a real rainstorm! Hopefully within a month!

Now for the smoke forecast...this is all vertically integrated smoke (smoke aloft). 

Below is 7 PM Tuesday. Moderate concentrations of smoke over Puget Sound, with more moving north.


The thickest smoke will be overhead early Wednesday morning. The forecast for 5 AM Wednesday is below.


At 5 AM, thick smoke is present over Western Washington from Puget Sound eastward. Soon after this (by 7-8 AM), westerly winds will clear out most of the smoke.

By 1 PM, the skies are almost clear, with a slight haze remaining.


Conditions get progressively better west of the Cascades, and by 7 AM Thursday, skies are free of smoke on the west side of the mountains in Oregon and Washington.


In Eastern Washington, conditions will be largely dependent on if you are downwind of a wildfire. The Schneider Springs Fire (94,206 acres, 14% contained) will likely create a large smoke plume by Wednesday evening, impacting areas from Yakima northeast. Additional (smaller) smoke plumes will be present from other fires.

Eastern Oregon and Idaho won't be as lucky, as their location relative to massive fires in California will allow smoky skies to continue.

One Year Ago (September 7-8, 2020):

Very strong winds moved through the gaps in the Cascades in Oregon and Washington, resulting in massive wildfires in Oregon & Eastern WA and a widespread power outage event in the South Sound. These winds, some of the strongest ever observed in Western WA during September, sparked the Sumner Grade Fire early on September 8th. The fire burned over 800 acres and destroyed multiple homes before reaching 95% containment on the 16th.


The photo above was taken by Bonney Lake WX on Twitter on September 8th, as the fire grew and moved southward. The area was evacuated just hours later.

I think we are all glad to not be experiencing an extreme fire weather event this year!

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