Extended Period of Dry Weather Through Next Week

FastCast—Saturday, Feb. 5 to Saturday, Feb. 12:

Due to persistent high pressure ridging offshore (frequent with the La Niña pattern), an extended period of dry weather is expected, through at least mid-February. Besides a slight chance of showers late Sunday into Monday, it will remain dry in the lowlands through the week and into next weekend. Generally, expect highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and lows in the mid 30s, except near freezing on Sunday morning. Keep reading below for information on the extended forecast and climate outlooks.

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As is common in La Niña patterns, significant and persistent high pressure ridging will dominate the Pacific Northwest over the next week and beyond.

Below is the GFS model showing a large ridge offshore (on Wednesday, Feb. 9th).

This pattern, with a persistent ridge offshore of the Pacific Northwest, is common in La Niña winters. If the ridge sets up nearer to Alaska or further out to sea, a colder and snowier pattern is possible (not likely in the foreseeable future).

The UW forecast below shows the ridge on Tuesday at the surface. 

The ridge is centered just offshore, deflecting weather systems away from Western Washington.

Looking into the future, significantly drier weather is expected. Below is the NWS Climate Prediction Center outlook for February 12th-18th.

This outlook shows a 40-50% chance of below average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. Of particular concern is the expected lack of precipitation in California. Already quite dry and in need of rain, this will not be good for California’s reservoir levels and vegetation conditions.