Significantly Wetter Pattern & Atmospheric River to End February

FastCast—Saturday, Feb. 26 to Tuesday, Mar. 1:

After a cold & mostly dry week and an abnormally dry February, a significant pattern change is ahead. One more cold night, with lows in the mid to upper 20s, is expected overnight Friday into Saturday. Then, the ridge will collapse, with rain and wind moving in by Saturday evening. A front late Saturday into Sunday will bring rain and gusty winds (30-35 mph in the lowlands, 45-50 mph on the coast and in the North Sound). On Monday, as an atmospheric river will set up over the region. By Tuesday, expect 2-3 total inches of rain across Western Washington. Most rain will fall from late Sunday through early Tuesday. The passes will receive snow through Sunday, then snow levels will rise above 4,000 feet, bringing mountain rain from Sunday evening onward. Rivers will rise, and some will approach bankfull. The Skokomish River on the SE Olympic Peninsula and potentially the Snoqualmie River will briefly reach flood stage around Tuesday. Temperatures will also warm significantly in the lowlands, with highs by Tuesday in the mid to upper 50s, and lows in the mid to upper 40s.

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After a dry February and a cold week, a significant pattern change is ahead, with heavy rain, higher snow levels, and gusty winds.

Below is the European model forecast for rain through Tuesday.

Significant rain is expected, with 2-3.5 inches likely across Western Washington, and even more on the coast. Less will fall in the north interior (1.5-2”).

Most of this rain (1-2”) will fall from late Sunday through early Tuesday, as an atmospheric river sets up over the region. The UW model below shows the atmospheric river aimed at Western Washington at 6 AM Monday.

This atmospheric river will bring heavy rain at times from late Sunday to early Tuesday, along with snow levels over 4,000 feet.

The atmospheric river will also bring warm temperatures on Monday and Tuesday. The European model below shows high temperatures on Tuesday, in the wake of the atmospheric river.

Temperatures in the mid to upper 50s (low 60s in the Columbia basin) will be quite a change from our recent Arctic blast.

Periods of gusty winds are possible as well. Expect gusts up to 35 mph in the lowlands at times through Monday evening. The strongest gusts will be on the coast and in the North Sound, where gusts reaching 40-50 mph are expected at times from late Saturday to Monday afternoon.

February will end much wetter than the rest of the month. The 1st to 25th have had around 0.75” of rain. The 26th to 28th will likely have 2-3 inches…more in 3 days than the previous 25!

Stay tuned for more information about the upcoming active weather!