Significant Texas Wildfires Due to Extraordinarily Dry Conditions

 FastCast—Monday, Mar. 21 to Friday, Mar. 25:

A rainy day is expected on Monday around Western Washington. Expect up to 0.4-0.75 inches of rain in the lowlands (most east of Puget Sound), 0.7-0.9” north of Everett and in the foothills, and 1-1.5 inches on the coast. A mix of rain and snow is possible at the passes, with precipitation changing to all rain by Monday morning. By Tuesday, temperatures will warm significantly (from the mid to upper 40s on Monday). Expect Tuesday’s highs to be in the low to mid 60s, with morning clouds and afternoon sun. A chance of showers and temperatures in the low 50s return on Wednesday, then expect mostly cloudy days on Thursday and Friday, with highs in the upper 50s (potentially the low 60s in some spots). 

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In the past few days, significant wildfires have been burning in central Texas. These wildfires have been fueled by very dry conditions and have destroyed over 80 structures. (Photo below from the InciWeb Incident Management System, Matthew Whelan/Texas A&M Forest Service)

Where are these wildfires? Most of them are in North Central Texas, within the red box in the InciWeb map below.

The largest fire (Eastland Complex Fire) is located in the cluster of fires between Abilene and Fort Worth. At over 54,000 acres, the Eastland Complex Fire has become one of the largest in Texas history. Note: Orange diamonds represent prescribed burns, or intentional fires, set for ecological reasons.

Take a look at the GOES-East weather satellite screenshot from Sunday evening, showing the smoke plumes in Central Texas.

These are significant smoke plumes considering it is March. The NWS Storm Prediction Center outlook from Sunday shows the large swath of “critical” fire weather in parts of the Southwest and Great Plains.

Sunday was incredibly dry, with gusty winds aiding fire growth. Minimum humidity values dropped to 5-15%, levels usually seen in Phoenix. These are seen below in the map of central Texas.

So what’s next around these fires? Weather conducive to fire suppression will move in…but with a twist. That twist is that the much higher humidity and likely rain will be preceded by gusty winds, and most importantly, followed by even stronger and drier winds after the rain moves out. 

Enough rain combined with higher humidity will hopefully provide some fire suppression, although the threat of severe thunderstorms doesn’t help the situation. Below is expected rain for Central Texas from the HRRR model (through 4 AM Tuesday).

The fires are between Abilene and Weatherford, where 0.2 to 0.75” of rain will fall, largely depending on if thunderstorms move over the fires. More or much less may fall depending on individual storm tracks.

This rain will bring some relief, but it’s what happens after the rain that is a cause for concern. Drier air with gusty winds will move in from the Great Plains on Tuesday. Humidity will plummet, and drying NE winds will increase. Maximum wind gusts on Tuesday afternoon are shown below, from the European model.

This next round of winds will gust 35-45 mph, not helping the fires. Let’s hope that the rain, thunderstorms, and higher humidity can suppress them enough. More dry days (with humidity not rising above 60% and gusty winds of 20-35 mph) through the end of this week.