Summer to Start With a Bang: First Heat Wave of 2022 Ahead

FastCast—Tuesday, June 21 to Monday, June 27:

After a chilly and wet spring, summer will begin with the Pacific Northwest’s first heat wave of 2022! This heat will not be anywhere close to the all-time record heat experienced in late June 2021. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s around the lowlands on Tuesday, with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny by late morning.  Clouds and marine air will move back in on Wednesday, with a slight chance of showers and highs cooling into the mid 60s. Highs rebound to the upper 60s to low 70s on Thursday, with mostly sunny conditions returning as well. Even sunnier conditions prevail on Friday and through the weekend. Friday’s highs will reach the mid to upper 70s. Then, the real heat builds. The warmest temperatures of 2022 (by far) will occur on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s in the lowlands and the upper 70s to mid 80s on the coast. Eastern Washington will bake in the heat, with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 100s. In Western Washington, there will be quite a range of nighttime lows in the coming days. Lows on Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be in the upper 40s, but from Saturday to Monday, expect lows in the upper 50s to low 60s, the warmest of the year so far. Continue reading below for the full forecast and cause of the arrival of summer weather!

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Continue reading the full blog below!

After what has seemed like an endless pattern of chilly and wet weather, with few warm & nice days in between, warm summer weather is finally ahead for the Pacific Northwest!

In fact, this summer will get off to a warm start, with a heat wave in the cards from Saturday to Monday. The European model’s Monday forecast (June 27th) is below.

Temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands on Monday, with similar temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. 

However, before we get to the heat wave, we have some more routine weather to get to.

A warm day is in store for Tuesday, with highs reaching the low to mid 70s around the lowlands and mid to upper 80s in Eastern Washington. The NAM high-resolution forecast is below.

Expect highs reaching the low to mid 70s in the lowlands (a tad warmer than this forecast indicates).

Marine air will move in on Wednesday, with a slight chance of showers and mostly cloudy conditions. Highs will drop to the mid to upper 60s. The UW forecast for upper air patterns on Wednesday is below.

Notice a trough of low pressure passing just to the north of Washington State. This general pattern is key to clouds and showers, as we have experienced most of this spring. Additionally, the high pressure ridge is sitting offshore, negating any of its possible effects on the Pacific Northwest.

However, a major pattern change is in the cards for the weekend. The UW forecast for Monday’s upper air patterns is below.

This is a significant change. Notice that the high pressure ridge has built in over the Southwest US, with ridging extending northward to the Pacific Northwest. The position of this ridge (just east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades) will provide the optimal conditions for the creation of a heat trough…which is low pressure created by high temperatures. Heat troughs are what cause many of Western Washington’s hot days.

By Saturday, a heat trough will be extending north from California into the Pacific Northwest, gradually moving north through Monday.

The NWS forecast for Saturday’s high temperatures is generally on the cooler side of projections, as seen below.

This forecast shows temperatures reaching the upper 70s near the water and the low 80s inland. 

On the warm side of predictions is the American GFS model. The GFS forecast for Saturday is seen below.

Although high temperature forecasts for the weekend and next Monday have been steadily trending upward, this forecast is likely on the high end. It brings highs in the mid to upper 80s for most areas south of Seattle, and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s north of Seattle (that is reasonable).

Bottom line: A heat wave is coming to the Pacific Northwest to begin summer, after a cool and wet spring. Forecasts for the heat wave will become more refined in the coming days, so stay tuned for an update on Wednesday evening!