FastCast--Saturday, Oct. 14 to Wednesday, Oct. 18:
After warm days on Thursday and Friday, clouds and showers have returned to the Pacific Northwest. Continue reading the blog below for a sky cover forecast for the annular solar eclipse on Saturday morning. Expect a chance of showers on Saturday in the lowlands, most likely in the early morning and in the evening. Rain will be light, generally around 0.1". A break in the rain is likely on Sunday, with cloudy skies continuing. A stronger system will move through on Monday, with up to 0.75" of rain, winds gusting up to 30 mph, and some periods of heavy rain. Some showers will linger on Tuesday before rain leaves the area. Wednesday will begin cloudy but end mostly sunny. From Saturday to Tuesday, expect highs in the low 60s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. On Wednesday, expect highs increasing to the mid to upper 60s, with lows in the mid to upper 40s.
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Continue reading the full blog below!
On Saturday, an annular solar eclipse (known as a "ring of fire eclipse" due to how the moon obscures all but a ring of the sun) will move across the United States, with maximum totality beginning over the Central Oregon Coast and moving SE across the Desert Southwest, then over Texas, and exiting the US near Corpus Cristi on the Southern TX Gulf Coast. The eclipse will enter the US on the Oregon Coast around 9:13 AM PDT.
The map below from the Great American Eclipse website shows the eclipse's path and the path of totality.
Washington will be in the 70-80% totality area, with the highest levels of totality south of a line from Cape Flattery to Walla Walla. However, prospects of seeing the eclipse from Washington look grim.
Let's take a look at multiple sky cover forecasts, showing cloud cover around 9 AM.
The first forecast is the European model, seen below.
The European model shows most of Washington under complete cloud cover, with breaks in the clouds from Seattle to Bellingham and over most of the Columbia Basin (but not Yakima, Ellensburg, or areas south of the Tri Cities).
Let's compare this to the GFS forecast, seen below.
The GFS forecast shows a much cloudier picture. The only areas of partially clear skies are around the Tri Cities, near Ellensburg, and potentially near Port Townsend and Sequim, but all of those are only partially clear skies.
Next, let's take a look at the NAM high-resolution forecast.
The NAM shows the least cloudy forecast for Washington, with an area of mostly clear skies from Port Angeles to Bremerton to Tacoma and from Everett northward. In Eastern Washington, this forecast shows nearly clear skies from near Leavenworth to Clarkston.
Next, the HRRR high-resolution forecast.
The HRRR shows a cloudy forecast, with an odd narrow area of clear skies (with relatively low population) from near Mount Baker toward Pullman.
Finally, we'll end with the NOAA FV3 forecast, also showing cloud cover.
This forecast shows near total cloud cover in Western Washington, with some areas of partially clear skies north of Spokane, in parts of SE Washington, including near Clarkston, around the Tri Cities, and in extreme north-central Washington, north of the Methow Valley.
Overall, prospects for seeing the eclipse are very low in Western Washington and only somewhat better in Eastern Washington. The best resource to see cloud cover (besides looking outside) will be the UW Atmospheric Sciences Satellite Loop, which updates frequently and shows cloud cover over Washington.
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