FastCast--Monday, Oct. 2 to Saturday, Oct. 7:
The next system is ahead for the Pacific Northwest, with rain moving in early Monday, continuing through the day. By Monday evening, showers will be relegated to a Convergence Zone over the Central Sound. Expect 0.3-0.6" in the lowlands. A rain shadow will be prevalent on the east and SE side of the Olympic Peninsula, dropping totals for the Kitsap Peninsula and Olympia area to around 0.1-0.3". Highs on Monday will only reach the mid to upper 50s, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Expect gradual clearing to partly sunny skies on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Conditions will significantly improve on Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s. Temperatures will continue increasing on Thursday and Friday, with sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Saturday will be the hottest day, with highs reaching the upper 70s, very close to record levels. Expect lows all week in the upper 40s to low 50s. The warm & sunny weather will be brief, with highs dropping and storms likely returning next week, so stay tuned.
----------------------------------------------------------
Continue reading the full blog below!
The first storm system of October will impact the Northwest on Monday, bringing a round of widespread rain. This will be followed by a significant warmup for the entire region. Let's take a look at the forecast!
Below is the European EPS forecast for rain through Tuesday.
In the lowlands, expect 0.3-0.5" on Monday. The coast will get 0.4-0.5", the mountains will get 0.6-1", and the Kitsap Peninsula/Olympia area will get 0.1-0.3" due to the rain shadow being on the east & southeast side of the Olympics. Of note is the fact that the typically rain-shadowed areas of the San Juan Islands and Northern Whidbey Island will get 0.4-0.5".
Let's see how this stacks up with the GFS forecast, seen below, also showing rain through Tuesday.
The GFS forecast is more pronounced with the rain shadow, extending it over parts of the lowlands more. This forecast shows 0.3-0.5" for Seattle south and east, with 0.05-0.2" for Olympia, the southern Kitsap Peninsula, and areas from Port Angeles to Arlington. The coast from Ocean Shores southward gets 0.6-0.8" in this forecast, with 0.6-1" in the mountains, mainly Stevens Pass south.
Now, let's take a look at temperatures. We will slowly be building up to a significant warmup from Thursday to Sunday, with highs likely reaching the upper 70s, near record highs for October! Let's start with the forecast for Monday, seen below on the European model.
Expect lowland highs on Monday to stay cool, likely only reaching the mid to upper 50s, with the coast reaching the upper 50s, Willamette Valley staying in the mid 50s, and Eastern Washington reaching the upper 50s to low 60s in the north to upper 60s in the south.
On Tuesday, temperatures will begin to warm up, albeit very slowly. Below is the European model forecast.
On Tuesday, expect lowland highs to increase to the upper 50s to low 60s, with similar temperatures on the coast. The Willamette Valley will reach the low to mid 60s, and Eastern Washington will reach the low 60s to low 70s, hottest from Moses Lake southward.
Wednesday will be even warmer, as seen in the European model forecast below.
On Wednesday, expect lowland highs increasing to the mid 60s, with the coast reaching the upper 50s to low 60s at the beaches to mid 60s inland. The Willamette Valley and Eastern Washington will reach the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Temperatures will only climb from Thursday to Saturday, reaching late summer levels. Below is the extended forecast for Seattle from the EPS.
Notice that highs and lows will be significantly above average during our warm spell. However, highs will drop significantly back to the low 60s early next week. The late summer-like warmth won't be here for long, so be sure to enjoy it on Friday and Saturday!
We'll round out the blog by taking a look at the same forecast, just for Spokane.
Notice a similar trend in Spokane, with highs increasing this week and then cratering near the middle of next week. Highs and lows are significantly above average during the warm spell. However, notice that the hottest day is one day later in Spokane, and notice that the moderating effect of nearby water is nonexistent in Spokane, seen by low temperatures being far cooler than Seattle.
Stay tuned for more information about the upcoming warm spell, potentially the last warm weather of 2023!
No comments:
Post a Comment