Weekend Storm, Potential for Big Changes Ahead

 FastCast--Saturday, Mar. 9 to Friday, Mar. 15:

A weekend storm will bring strong winds, rain, and snow to the region from Saturday to Sunday, with an additional system ahead from Monday to Tuesday. Generally, expect winds gusting 30-40 mph across the lowlands, with some areas near the water gusting up to 45 mph. Winds will likely peak midday to afternoon Saturday. The coast and North Sound will gust up to 50 mph. Expect 0.5-0.8" of rain across the region through Sunday, with 5-10" of snow at the passes. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s to low 50s through Wednesday, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Starting Thursday, a major pattern shift will begin, with potential growing for a huge high pressure ridge to build over the Northwest, bringing much warmer spring weather and sunnier conditions by the end of the week. Thursday will be partly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s, and Friday will be partly to mostly sunny, with highs reaching the low to mid 60s! Stay tuned for more information, and keep reading below for a look at the weekend storm.

Don't forget to turn your clocks forward this weekend, as Daylight Saving Time begins at 2 AM PDT Sunday.

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A storm will move through the region this weekend, bringing wind, rain, and mountain snow.

Let's start by taking a look at the wind forecast, starting with the European model below.

The European model shows winds from Seattle south gusting 40-45 mph, with most areas from Whidbey Island north also gusting 40-45 mph, except up to 50 mph around the San Juan Islands and on the coast. This forecast has winds increasing quickly midday Saturday, peaking in the afternoon.

Let's compare this to the HRRR high-resolution forecast, also showing peak winds.

This forecast shows winds across the entire region gusting 40-45 mph, with strong gusts of 45-55 mph for Whatcom, Island, San Juan, and Eastern Clallam & Jefferson Counties, particularly the Admiralty Inlet area. This forecast also shows very strong gusts up to 55-65 mph for the coast, strongest around Long Beach. (Note: These strongest winds around Admiralty Inlet and the coast occur early Sunday morning in this forecast).

Let's take a look at the high-resolution NAM forecast, shown below.

This forecast shows gusts of 35-40 mph for the entire region, with gusts up to 45 mph south of Tacoma and north of Everett. Gusts reach 50 mph in the San Juans and 50-55 mph for the coast. 

Next, let's take a look at the rain forecast through late Sunday night, shown below on the European model.

Through late Sunday, expect 0.5-0.8" of rain for most of the lowlands, with the Kitsap Peninsula getting up to 1-1.25". The coast will be quite wet, with totals of 2-3.5" through late Sunday.

Finally, let's take a look at the snow forecast through late Sunday, seen below on the European model.

This forecast shows a total of 5-10" of snow at the passes. This amount of snow likely won't cause significant impacts, but do be prepared if you're crossing the passes.

Now, let's end the blog by taking a look at the significant spring weather shift ahead. Below is the European Ensemble forecast showing the major high pressure ridge set to build over the region late next week.

This is a huge high pressure ridge, centered just offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast. This forecast, for Thursday, shows the ridge before it moves eastward and is directly over the region. What will the effect be, you ask?

High pressure ridges deflect weather systems and generally bring warmer and sunnier conditions. This will certainly be the case if this forecast verifies. Below is the European Ensemble forecast for highs next Saturday (the 16th).

For all you spring weather lovers out there, this is your forecast! This shows highs reaching the mid to upper 60s for the entirety of Western Washington and Western Oregon! Stay tuned over the next few days as we get more details on the warmup!