FastCast--Tuesday, April 2 to Saturday, April 6:
A partly sunny day with high clouds is expected on Tuesday, concluding a pleasant few days across the Northwest. On Tuesday, lowland highs will peak in the mid 60s, with some areas closer to the water remaining in the low 60s. By Wednesday, high temperatures will crash, with highs dropping to the low 50s. Some parts of Western Washington will experience a 15° temperature drop from Tuesday to Wednesday. Highs through Saturday will remain in the upper 40s to mid 50s (warmest with partly sunny conditions on Friday). Lows through Saturday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Additionally, there is a chance of showers from late Wednesday to Thursday, with totals of 0.2-0.4" across the lowlands, except 0.1-0.2" in a rain shadow from Olympia to Seattle. A Convergence Zone could bring up to 0.6-0.8" for parts of Northern King and Snohomish Counties.
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Continue reading the full blog below!
Tuesday will be a pleasantly warm day across the state, with some very warm conditions possible across Eastern Washington. However, temperatures will crash significantly by Wednesday. Let's take a look at the forecast!
Below is the NWS NBM model forecast for highs on Tuesday.
Expect lowland highs to reach the mid 60s, with areas north of Mount Vernon only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. The coast will remain under marine stratus, with highs in the low 50s. The Willamette Valley will reach the low 70s. Eastern Washington will also reach the low to mid 70s, except the Columbia Basin, where temperatures in the low 80s are expected. The Tri-Cities and Walla Walla will reach the upper 70s to low 80s.
Now, let's take a look at highs on Wednesday, seen below in the NWS NBM forecast.
This is a huge temperature decline across the state, and it illustrates the power of the "marine push," where cool ocean air pushes across the state and rapidly cools temperatures. Expect lowland and coastal highs to only reach the upper 40s to low 50s, with Eastern Washington reaching the low 50s to low 60s (warmest in the lower Columbia Basin). Similar highs to these are expected across the region for the next few days.
Let's take another look at this significant day-to-day temperature decline. Below is the European model forecast for temperature difference from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon.
The lowlands will have a 10-15° drop, with the Willamette Valley and most of Eastern WA dropping 15-20°, with the exception of the lower Columbia Basin, which will see 24-hour temperature drops of 25-30°.
Let's compare this with the same forecast from the high-resolution NAM model, seen below.
This forecast gives a better visualization with higher resolution. The lowlands drop 10-15°, with the Willamette Valley and Eastern Washington dropping 15-25°. Again, the lower Columbia Basin will have staggering temperature drops of 25-30° colder highs in 24 hours.
The marine push will also bring breezy conditions to the region, especially on the eastern slopes of the Cascades. Below is the NAM high-resolution forecast for wind gusts through Wednesday morning.
Expect gusty W-SW winds along the Strait of Juan de Fuca (30-35 mph) and across Eastern Washington (30-40 mph), strongest in the Kittitas Valley and eastern Columbia River Gorge, where gusts up to 45 mph are possible. The lowlands will have an evening breeze gusting 25-30 mph. In the summer, these marine push events are frequently called the Puget Sound area's "natural air conditioning", and this marine push is essentially the same event, but just in early spring.
Finally, let's take a look at what precipitation we can expect. Below is the European model forecast for total rain through Wednesday.
Across Western Washington, expect 0.2-0.4" of rain, except 0.05-0.15" from Olympia to Seattle. There is potential for a Convergence Zone bringing up to 0.8" of rain from Everett to Camano Island, with the North Coast also getting up to 0.7" of rain. Eastern Washington will remain dry, except for 0.2-0.6" around Walla Walla, Pullman, and Clarkston.
The incoming pattern change will be enough to actually bring some snow to the mountains. Below is the European model forecast for snow through Wednesday.
This forecast shows the passes getting 2-4" of snow through Wednesday, with higher areas such as Mt. Baker and Paradise getting up to 6". This won't cause impacts, but it is a reminder that even though it's spring, mountain snow is still present.
Enjoy the warmth on Tuesday! We won't be that warm for the foreseeable future.
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