FastCast--Thursday, April 11 to Monday, April 15:
A weak system will move through from Thursday to midday Friday, bringing cooler, cloudier conditions and light showers to Western Washington. The lowlands can expect to see 0.05-0.10" of rain with this system, with more rain on the coast and in the Northwest Interior. Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the mid 50s, with some areas reaching the upper 50s on Friday as clouds clear out in the afternoon. A short-lived ridge will build over the region from late Friday through Sunday. Saturday will be an excellent day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s, warmest Seattle southward. Sunday will be a bit cloudier and cooler, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. As another system moves in late Sunday into Monday, it'll likely be breezy across the region, especially along the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Stay tuned for more information on this in my Friday blog. The arriving system will bring a drop in temperatures, an increase in clouds, and a chance of showers on Monday, with highs dropping to the low to mid 50s.
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Continue reading the full blog below!
A relatively weak system will impact Western Washington on Thursday and early Friday, bringing a light round of rain to the region. The second half of Friday will bring decreasing clouds, followed by a pleasant weekend (especially Saturday).
Let's start by taking a look at the European model forecast for rain through Friday, seen below.
The lowlands will only see around 0.05-0.1" of rain with this system, with areas from Mount Vernon northward getting 0.15-0.3", and the coast getting 0.3-0.4", except 0.6-0.9" from Ocean Shores northward. Eastern Washington will remain mostly dry, except for the far northern Cascades and the areas surrounding the Blue Mountains, which will get 0.1-0.3" of rain, with isolated higher totals possible.
Next, let's take a look at the snow forecast through Friday, also from the European model.
We are getting to the point in the year where a system has to pack much more of a punch to produce much snow for the Cascades. In winter, weak systems like this can bring a few inches of snow to most of the mountains, but in spring, a weak system struggles to bring more than 3-5" to the highest terrain. The Olympics and North Cascades will be the only areas to get more than 1" of snow with this weak system.
Speaking of snow, it's a good time to take a brief look at the current snowpack situation, seen on the USDA/NWCC Snowpack Interactive Map for Washington.
This is a classic signature of an El Niño winter in the Pacific Northwest. Most of Washington's snowpack in the Cascades is 60-70% of normal, with only the southern and extreme eastern parts of the state having snowpack of 70-90%. As of this time, reservoir storage on both sides of the Cascades is still near or slightly above normal.
Now, let's shift to taking a look at the nicer weekend forecast. Below is the European Ensemble forecast, showing the upper-level pattern influencing our nice weekend.
Notice the high pressure ridge over Washington. While it'll be relatively short-lived (late Friday through Sunday), it will at least bring a pleasant spring weekend!
Saturday will definitely be the best day of the weekend, as seen in the high temperature forecast below from the NWS NBM high-resolution model.
On Saturday, expect lowland highs in the low to mid 60s, with the coast reaching the upper 50s to low 60s, and the Willamette Valley reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. Eastern Washington will be very nice, with highs in the upper 60s near Spokane to the upper 70s (potentially low 80s) in the Columbia Basin.
I'm looking forward to a nice weekend! Stay tuned for an update on our return to cooler weather (again) for the first half of next week.
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