Colder & Calmer Start to December Expected

 FastCast—Wednesday, Dec. 1 to Sunday, Dec. 6:

After weeks of active weather, December will start calm and much colder than November has been. Rain associated with the final atmospheric river will continue in Whatcom County and the NW Olympic Peninsula through early Thursday. Additional river flooding is possible, mainly in minor flood stage. Temperatures will remain warm, in the mid-upper 50s, through Wednesday, but will not climb above 50 degrees after that. Expect much cooler highs in the low to mid 40s through Sunday, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Showers are possible at times, mainly from Friday to Sunday, with totals of 0.25-0.4 inches. Since it will be much cooler, snow levels will be lower. Expect snow at the passes, around 6 inches through Sunday. 

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What a month! It has been very wet and active, to say the least. Rain totals have ranged from 8-14 inches in the lowlands to 18-25 inches on the coast and in the NW Interior. Plentiful atmospheric rivers have caused multiple rounds of flooding, including devastating flooding in Whatcom County and BC’s Lower Mainland earlier in November. 

The last atmospheric river is moving through at a northwesterly angle, keeping the metro area in the rain shadow. See the 24 hour rain totals ending 6 PM Tuesday. Notice the areas where totals are higher, and where they are lower (downstream of the Olympics).

The contrasts between sides of the Olympics are impressive. The most rain (1.5-2.5 inches) fell in Whatcom County, along the Coast/Olympics, and in the Cascades. This rain will taper by Thursday morning, and rivers will recede soon after. 

Colder weather arrives by Thursday. Temperatures will decrease from the mid to upper 50s to the mid 40s. Below is the Federal Way forecast from Weather Underground.

By Thursday, temperatures don’t go above 50 degrees. Expect highs (after Wednesday) in the low to mid 40s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Showers are also possible, mainly from Friday to Sunday, totaling around 0.25-0.5 inches.

Enjoy the calmer weather, and stay tuned for more information about upcoming weather!

Another Round of Flooding, Next Atmospheric River Ahead

FastCast—Monday, Nov. 29 to Friday, Dec. 3:

The weekend’s atmospheric river brought another round of flooding to Western Washington, especially in Whatcom County. A total of 0.5-1.5 inches of rain fell in the interior lowlands, and as predicted…2-6 inches fell in Whatcom County. Additionally, temperatures reached the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday due to the subtropical component of the atmospheric river. Rain has tapered around the area as of Sunday night. The next atmospheric river will approach from the northwest, keeping areas south of Bellingham in the rain shadow (0-0.25”). Areas outside the rain shadow will receive 0.5-3 inches of rain, and 2.5-7 inches in the mountains. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s to mid 50s through Wednesday evening. Temperatures decrease into the mid 30s to mid 40s by Friday.

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It was an active weekend across Western Washington, with yet another atmospheric river impacting the area. We experienced balmy temperatures (upper 50s to low 60s), heavy rain, and another round of flooding. Rain totals ranged from 0.4-1.5 inches in the Interior Lowlands and 2-6 inches in Whatcom County and BC’s Lower Mainland. The mountains received up to 7 inches of rain.

I went to Snoqualmie Falls on Sunday morning, and it was raging! Click here for my video on Twitter.

There is also ongoing urban & river flooding in Whatcom, Skagit, and Snohomish Counties, particularly on the Nooksack River north of Bellingham and numerous Whatcom County roads. (See Live Storms Media video). In the WSDOT map below, you can see the amount of road closures on Sunday night in round 2 of Whatcom County’s flooding.

In British Columbia, flooding continues as areas try to recover from the previous devastating flooding. Check out the SteBros YouTube channel to see daily updates from a major washout on BC Highway 5 in Coquihalla Canyon (about 75 miles east of Vancouver).

Looking ahead, another atmospheric river will move into British Columbia on Tuesday. It will move in at a northwesterly angle, putting areas from Bellingham southward in the rain shadow. Below is the UW rain forecast through 4 PM Wednesday.

The western and northwestern slopes of Vancouver Island, the Olympics, and the North Cascades will receive 1.5-7 inches of rain. Areas from Bellingham to Vancouver BC will receive 0.75-3 inches of rain. The metro area will be in the rain shadow during this event, and will receive 0 to 0.25 inches of rain. This next atmospheric river will cause rivers to rise a bit more by Tuesday after receding on Monday. Rivers that flooded on Sunday will reach minor flood stage (except the Skagit, which will reach moderate stage).

Looking ahead, below is the forecast for Federal Way from Weather Underground.

Expect light rain at times in the metro area, with temperatures decreasing by Wednesday night, as an overall colder pattern arrives.

Next Atmospheric River Arrives Saturday: Heavy Rain & Flooding Expected

FastCast—Saturday, Nov. 26 to Sunday, Nov. 27:

The next atmospheric river is expected to impact the area from Saturday morning to early Monday. It will be stronger than the Thanksgiving atmospheric river, and will cause another round of river flooding. Expect rain totals of 0.5-1.5 inches in the interior lowlands, 2-5 inches on the coast and in Whatcom & Skagit Counties, and 3-10 inches in the Olympics and Cascades. The Olympic rain shadow (from Seattle to Mount Vernon and the NE Olympic Peninsula) will receive lesser amounts of 0.05-1 inch. River flooding is expected on the Snoqualmie/Snohomish, Skagit, and Nooksack Rivers. The worst flooding will be on the Skagit (major) and Nooksack Rivers (moderate), as well as the Snoqualmie River in Snoqualmie Valley (moderate). Due to the atmospheric river, temperatures will rise to the mid-upper 50s through Sunday evening. Rain from this atmospheric river will taper by Monday afternoon.

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The next atmospheric river will impact the Pacific Northwest from Saturday morning to Monday morning, bringing heavy rain and river flooding. Below is the UW rain forecast through 4 PM Monday.

Expect 0.5 to 1.5 inches in the lowlands. Less (0.05-0.5”) will fall in the Olympic rain shadow. The most concerning aspect of this atmospheric river is 2-5 inches of rain in Whatcom & northern Skagit Counties and BC’s Lower Mainland. Expect 2-5 inches on the coast and 3-10 inches in the mountains. 

Below is the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service flooding forecast through Tuesday.

Moderate flooding will occur on both forks of the Nooksack River, major flooding will occur on the Skagit River, and minor to moderate flooding will occur on the Snoqualmie and Snohomish Rivers. 

Flood-weary NW WA & SW BC will likely have urban flooding in addition to river flooding. Urban flooding is possible around the area, especially in low-lying or poorly drained areas.

Additionally, breezy winds are possible around the region from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon. Gusts up to 25-35 mph are possible, strongest near the water. Below is the wind gust forecast for Federal Way from the Windy app.

Showers will continue through Wednesday. Stay updated on this atmospheric river and other active weather on Twitter (click the Twitter icon on the right side of the blog).

Thanksgiving Forecast: Another Atmospheric River to Impact the PNW

 FastCast—Thanksgiving Day to Sunday, Nov. 28:

As if we haven’t had enough rain this month, another atmospheric river will impact the Pacific Northwest from Thanksgiving Day to midday Friday. Expect 0.5-1 inch of rain in the lowlands from Thursday evening to midday Friday. On the coast and in Whatcom County, expect 1-2 inches. The atmospheric river will raise snow levels over 8,000 feet and high temperatures will rise to the low-mid 50s by Friday and Saturday. Rain will be heaviest from Thursday evening to early Friday morning. A second atmospheric river arrives on Saturday, continuing through Sunday. This one will likely bring another 0.5-1 inch of rain in the Interior Lowlands, and 1-3 inches on the coast and north of Mount Vernon. This will likely be followed by a third atmospheric river from Tuesday to Wednesday. This one is more uncertain…so stay tuned. Of particular concern is the fact that 4-8 inches of rain will likely fall in Whatcom County and BC’s Lower Mainland, an area that is still just beginning to recover from devastating flooding. Stay tuned for updates on the river flooding potential…which is not very high as of Wednesday night, but the threat of landslides will definitely increase. Happy (wet) Thanksgiving!

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This Thanksgiving will be served with a side of atmospheric river. The first of three atmospheric rivers will move into the Pacific Northwest on Thanksgiving, with the heaviest rain from Thursday evening to Friday morning. See the UW model forecast below that shows the IVT (integrated water vapor transport) at 4 PM Thursday.

This has become a typical forecast model image for the PNW as of late. Due to this atmospheric river, temperatures will rise into the 50s and snow levels will rise over 8,000 feet. 

Below is the UW rain forecast through 4 PM Friday.

Expect 0.5-1 inch from Olympia northward in the interior lowlands. More rain will fall on the coast & in the mountains (1.25-7.5”), and less will fall in the rain shadow (0.1-0.5”), including Seattle. 

1-2.5 inches will fall in Whatcom County and BC’s Lower Mainland. This area is just beginning to recover from devastating floods, and the series of atmospheric rivers won’t help. Urban flooding and landslides are possible, and rivers are expected to reach “action stage” (at or just over bankfull) and minor flood stage in Whatcom County. 

Gusty winds of 35-45 mph are possible north of Everett on Thanksgiving, with gusts up to 20-30 mph elsewhere.

As additional atmospheric rivers move in, Thanksgiving weekend travel will be impacted, with the biggest impacts on the weekend, as atmospheric river #2 brings heavy rain to the entire region.

Stay tuned!

Rain & Mountain Snow Return on Monday

FastCast—Monday, Nov. 22 to Friday, Nov. 26:

After a brief hiatus from the rain (and a great weekend), the rain returns on Monday. First off, a cold night is expected, with lows in the low 30s and frost possible. Fog, potential freezing fog, and black ice is possible, especially in valleys and outlying areas. Additionally, stagnant air is possible through Monday, with degraded air quality, due to a high pressure ridge and relatively little wind. Clouds move in through the day, with rain beginning by late afternoon. Spotty showers are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect 0.2-0.5” in the interior lowlands through Wednesday. Mountain snow is expected from Monday night to Wednesday. Up to 8 inches is expected through Wednesday before the snow level rises above the passes. The next system moves in on Thanksgiving, with up to 1 inch of rain on Thanksgiving. Showers continue on Friday. Expect highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s, except in the low 30s Monday morning. Stay tuned for more information about the upcoming weather systems!

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What a nice weekend! It was actually dry, a rare feat this month! I took the photo below at Snoqualmie Pass on Saturday.

It was nice to enjoy the dry weather while it lasted, as the next rainy period is in the forecast. 

Below is the UW rain forecast through 4 PM Wednesday.

Expect 0.2-0.5 inches of rain in the Interior Lowlands, with more in the foothills and on the coast. Up to 0.5 inches of rain is possible in BC’s Lower Mainland, where areas are still underwater.

The other impact will be mountain snow, mainly from Monday evening to Tuesday evening. Below is the UW snow forecast through 4 PM Friday.

Expect up to 8 inches at the Passes, before the snow level rises by Wednesday.

More rain is expected, especially on and after Thanksgiving. Additionally, temperatures will rise, with highs in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 40s. Below is the Weather Underground forecast for Federal Way.

More rain & active weather is expected…so stay tuned!

Rain Ends Friday, Dry Weekend Expected & The Winter Outlook

 FastCast—Thursday, Nov. 18 to Monday, Nov. 22:

The first rain since the atmospheric rivers has moved through Western Washington since Thursday afternoon, with 0.2-0.7 inches of rain. Additional totals of up to 0.5” are possible through Friday morning. The biggest impact has been mountain snow. As of 8:25 PM Thursday, Snoqualmie Pass is closed both directions from North Bend to Ellensburg due to heavy snow and spinouts. No estimated reopening has been given at this time. Stevens, White, and Blewett Passes are also receiving heavy snow. Accumulations up to 8 inches are possible by Friday morning. Mostly dry weather is expected from midday Friday through Monday afternoon before the next rain arrives. Expect highs in the mid 40s to low 50s and lows in the mid 30s to near 40. 

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Rain moved into the Puget Sound area on Thursday afternoon, and steady rain continued through around 8 PM, totaling 0.2-0.75” around the region. The biggest impact from this system has been heavy mountain snow in the passes. Below is a WSDOT image from Snoqualmie Pass at 4 PM this evening.

Snow continued quickly after this, and by 6 PM, the pass was closed. As of 8:30 PM, I-90 both directions is closed from North Bend to Ellensburg, and will reopen at 12 AM Friday. 

Rain and mountain snow will continue through Friday morning. Expect up to 0.5 inches of rain and up to 8 inches of mountain snow.

Below is the Federal Way forecast from Weather Underground.

Expect rain ending by Friday morning. Friday will be cloudy, and clouds will decrease on Saturday, increasing again on Sunday and Monday. Rain arrives Monday and showers continue on Tuesday. More rain is possible in the extended forecast…so stay tuned! Expect highs in the mid 40s to near 50, and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Recently, the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their temperature and precipitation outlooks for December, January, and February. 

Below average temperatures and above average precipitation are expected. This is classic for a La Niña winter pattern. This generally means above average mountain snow and above average precipitation in the Lowlands. And yes…there is a higher potential for lowland snow…so stay tuned!

Recap: Windstorm & Major Flooding, Colder Weather Ahead

 FastCast-Wednesday, Nov. 17 to Saturday, Nov. 20:

What a start to November! Active weather has been nonstop, and most areas have received well over the normal monthly rainfall. Some extreme events have occurred as well, with devastating flooding in Whatcom and Skagit Counties & BC's Lower Mainland, strong winds around most of Western Washington, and flooding in urban areas and on most local rivers. Now, the weather will calm down significantly! Floodwaters will begin to recede in Whatcom County & BC, the area can dry out, and damage can begin to be repaired. Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the month, with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Frost is possible in the morning. It will be mostly cloudy through the day, and rain will move in by midday Thursday, totaling 0.3-0.5” around the Lowlands. Snow levels will be much lower, with totals in the passes of 4-6” by Friday. Some showers will remain on Friday, and then a dry day is expected on Saturday. Expect cooler temperatures in the lowlands, with highs in the mid to upper 40s, and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

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It has been a very active first half of November in Western Washington. Perhaps it can be summed up in this stunning image from Benjamin Jurkovich, taken during Monday's windstorm.

This semi truck overturned on the Deception Pass Bridge at the height of Monday's windstorm, precariously leaning on the railing, 180 feet above the stormy seas. Winds in the area gusted 50-70 mph. Thankfully, the driver was able to escape the truck!

Winds were very strong around the area, gusting 40-58 mph in the Puget Sound area, 50-75 mph along the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and 50-65 mph on the coast. Significant power outages occurred, with over 200,000 customers out of the power at the height of the storm. 

The photo below from Valley Regional Fire shows massive tree that fell on power lines in Auburn.

This was a common sight around the area, especially due to the very saturated soils because of the huge amounts of rain recently.

Below are peak wind gusts around the region on Monday, with a zoomed in graphic of the Puget Sound area.

The strongest gusts in the Puget Sound area were 58 mph gusts recorded at Sea-Tac Airport and Point Robinson on Vashon Island. Numerous gusts of 45-55 mph were also recorded.

Despite the crazy wind, the biggest story has been the devastating flooding in Skagit & Whatcom Counties and BC’s Lower Mainland. Some updates, photos, and videos of the flooding are linked below: (Also check my Twitter page)

Randy Small (Whatcom County Weather) Twitter

Live Storms Media YouTube Channel

Below are rain totals in NW Washington and SW British Columbia. These are large totals in any event, but it is incredible (and devastating) that all this rain fell in 3 days.

Massive totals of 4-9 inches fell from Saturday to Monday. This is near or greater than average November rainfall for these areas, and as you would expect, the impacts were massive and widespread.

Water rescues, record river flooding, widespread & damaging urban flooding, and landslides all were common. Landslides & major flooding closed I-5, numerous Washington highways, the Trans-Canada Highway, and all roads connecting the Vancouver metro area with the interior of Canada were cut off. 

The flooding situation in NW WA and SW BC is ongoing, and impacts will likely continue for days. Stay tuned to local officials for the latest updates.

Looking ahead, cooler weather is expected. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s are expected Wednesday morning. Rain returns on Thursday, though the system will not be very impactful. Below is the UW forecast through Friday.

Expect 0.3-0.5” from Thursday to early Friday. Mountain snow is expected as well, with 4-6” at the passes by Friday.

Temperatures will generally be much cooler than the first half of November. Expect highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s (except much colder Wednesday morning).

Strong Winds, Heavy Rain, and More Flooding Expected on Monday

I will have a recap of the recent windstorm and flooding by 9 PM Tuesday. Stay tuned!

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FastCast—Sunday, Nov. 14 to Monday, Nov. 15:

After a warm, windy, and rainy Sunday, the active weather continues into Monday. The biggest threat will be winds, due to a low pressure center that will strengthen and move into British Columbia, bringing a large rise in pressure on Monday. Winds will increase through Sunday night, peaking from Monday morning to the afternoon. Expect strong gusts of 45-50 mph over the lowlands, potentially higher. Gusts of 55-65 mph are possible around Admiralty Inlet and on the coast. Tree damage and power outages are expected, especially due to very saturated soils. Expect rain totals of 0.3-0.75" of rain in the lowlands (potentially higher), and 0.5-2" in the Northwest Interior. As rain tapers Monday afternoon, the main issue will be river flooding. Record levels are expected on parts of rivers draining from the North Cascades and North Olympics. Flooding will last through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s through midday Monday, before dropping to the 40s by Monday evening. By Monday evening, snow levels will plummet to 1,500-2,000 feet, and Convergence Zone bands will bring 4-8" to the passes. Drier weather is in store for Tuesday!

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Due to a passing warm front, Sunday was a very warm day...by November standards! Highs around the area reached the low-mid 60s, and winds gusted 35-45 mph (locally stronger). Heavy rain fell north of Skagit County, with 1.5-3" in Whatcom & Skagit Counties on Sunday. Rivers began to rise again, with some (mainly north of I-90) returning to flood stage.

Another active day is on tap for Monday, featuring gusty winds, more rain, and major cooling (and rapidly dropping snow levels). 

Let's start with the wind. A low pressure system will quickly develop and move into British Columbia on Monday, and the associated sharp rise in air pressure will strengthen winds around the region. Below is the peak gust forecast from the HRRR Model on the VentuSky app.

Expect gusts of 45-50 mph around the lowlands. Isolated higher gusts (50-55 mph) are possible, especially near Puget Sound. Gusts of 55-65 mph are possible along the Strait of Juan de Fuca and on the coast. 

Winds will increase overnight, with the peak winds from Monday morning to early afternoon.

Due to this forecast, NWS Seattle has issued a Wind Advisory for the Interior Lowlands that is in effect until 4 PM Monday. The alert is below.

It is safe to expect gusts of at least 40-45 mph, with gusts in the 50 mph range very possible. Due to the fact that we have received huge amounts of rain in the past few weeks, soils are very saturated. This means that the threat of tree damage and power outages is highest with this storm than others this fall. Below is a graphic from AccuWeather illustrating saturated soil’s impact on trees.

Be prepared for strong winds, tree damage, and power outages on Monday. Winds will diminish somewhat by Monday evening, calming fully by Tuesday morning.

Now for the rain...a cold front will slowly move south through the area on Monday. Below is the UW forecast through 4 PM Monday.

Expect 0.5-0.75” in the lowlands, with less from approximately Tacoma southward. 0.75-3” is possible on the coast, with even more in the mountains. 1-3 inches are possible from Skagit County northward as the atmospheric river remains aimed at Northwest Washington and southern British Columbia.

All this rain will bring rises on area rivers yet again, especially for rivers north of I-90. Below is the flooding forecast from the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Impactful flooding is expected. Red and purple dots mean moderate or major flooding. All time record high crests are possible on the Skagit, Nooksack, Elwha, and Dungeness Rivers on Monday and Tuesday. Damage is expected along these rivers. There will also be another round of flooding on the Snoqualmie, Skykomish, and Snohomish River system, peaking with major flooding near Monroe.

To top it all off, major cooling is expected on Monday as well. As the cold front moves through, temperatures will drop from the upper 50s to the low-mid 40s. By Tuesday morning, we’ll be in the upper 30s to low 40s! Snow levels will sharply decrease to 1,500-2,000 feet by Monday evening. In the wake of the cold front, Convergence Zone bands will bring snow to the passes. The UW snow forecast through 7 AM Tuesday is below.

Expect 4-8 inches of snow in these Convergence Zone bands. These are highly localized, so where they set up will determine which passes get the most snow (likely Stevens Pass).

Wow! That’s a lot of weather! A crazy Monday will end the recent rainy pattern (for the time being) with a bang! Expect dry days on Tuesday and Wednesday, before the next system arrives on Thursday, with more rain. The good news…no atmospheric rivers are in the forecast! 

Stay safe & stay tuned (on Twitter, follow our local weather experts)!

Saturday Night Update: Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, Next Round of Flooding Ahead

Update 10:25 AM: NWS Seattle has issued a Wind Advisory (below) through 12 PM Monday.

Expect south winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph through around noon Monday. Tree damage and power outages are possible, especially due to the high amount of soil saturation due to recent rains.

Additionally, as of 10:25 AM, warm air is advecting into the area due to a warm front that moved through late Saturday. Take a look at temperatures below!

Temperatures across the area are in the upper 50s to low 60s. With high humidity, dewpoints are also in the upper 50s to low 60s, meaning it’ll be muggy at times. Expect these temperatures to continue through midday Monday.

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FastCast—Saturday, Nov. 13 to Monday Nov. 15:

After a brief break in the rain on Saturday, the next atmospheric river has begun impacting Western Washington. Rain, heavy at times, will impact the region through Monday afternoon. Expect 1-3 inches of rain across the area, with the most rain from Skagit County northward and in the mountains. Another round of river flooding is expected as well, with rivers cresting on Monday and Tuesday. Rivers draining from the North & Central Cascades and Olympics will experience the most flooding, especially the Skagit River, where major and near-record flooding is possible. This atmospheric river will also bring warm temperatures (upper 50s to low 60s) from Saturday night to Monday afternoon. Gusty winds are possible from early Sunday to Monday evening around the area. Gusts up to 30-40 mph are possible, strongest near the water, and up to 45 mph from Everett northward. Read below for more information!

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The second atmospheric river in the past week is now impacting Western Washington. While some uncertainty remains over how much precipitation will fall, a good guess is shown in the UW model’s totals below. (This forecast suggests a more northerly orientation of the atmospheric river…some forecasts suggest a different outcome, so stay tuned).

Expect 1-2 inches of rain in the metro area, with locally higher amounts possible, especially between Tacoma and Everett. North of Mount Vernon, 2-4 inches are likely. In the mountains, 3-10 inches are expected. With snow levels in the 8,000 to 10,000 foot range through midday Monday, these elements will combine to generate river flooding. Below is the NWS River Flooding Forecast for this event.

Rivers draining from the North & Central Cascades and Olympics will go above flood stage, while some rivers south of Seattle will be in “action” stage (or near bank full). Of particular concern is the Skagit River, where major flooding is forecast and near-record flooding is possible between Concrete and Mount Vernon.

Additionally, gusty winds are expected with this atmospheric river, something we didn’t have with the previous atmospheric river. Below is the wind forecast for Federal Way from the Windy App. 

Expect gusts of 30-40 mph (locally higher) from early Sunday to Monday evening. Tree damage and isolated power outages are possible, especially due to the very saturated soils from recent rain.

Details about the heaviest rain and where it will set up (particularly from late Sunday into Monday) are still evolving. Stay tuned for an update by 10 PM Sunday.

River Flooding Begins & Another Atmospheric River Starting Saturday Evening

FastCast—Saturday, Nov. 13 to Monday, Nov. 15:

River flooding has begun on rivers around the region as the atmospheric river moves out. Most areas south of Seattle received 1-3.5” of rain from Thursday to Friday afternoon. See the blog below for more information on river flooding. Expect a break in the rain through Saturday evening. Saturday will be mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. As if we haven’t already had enough rain…atmospheric river #2 arrives late Saturday. Rain will begin Saturday evening, continuing on and off at times through Monday evening. Uncertainty remains regarding total rain amounts for this next atmospheric river, but totals will be highest in the North Interior (Skagit County northward). Totals of 1-3 inches are expected in the metro area, with much more in the mountains. It will be breezy to windy (30-40 mph) at times, and temperatures will rise to the upper 50s to low 60s from late Saturday night to Monday afternoon. 

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It has been a very wet past 2 days in Western Washington, as the first of two atmospheric rivers moved through the area. Heavy rain contributed to urban flooding and flooding on many rivers that flow off the Cascades. Below is a photo of the Carbon River at Fairfax on Friday afternoon, taken by Bonney Lake Weather on Friday afternoon.

The water was moving very fast, and logs were floating in the swift current. This was a common scene around the region on Friday, and river flooding will continue through Saturday, rivers will briefly recede, and many (but not all) will rise again by late Sunday.

Below are rain totals from Thursday morning to Friday afternoon. 

Totals varied around the area. From approximately Seattle southward, totals ranged from 1.5 to 3.4 inches. North of Seattle, totals were 0.75 to 2 inches. In the mountains, totals of 4.5 to 6.7 inches were recorded, which coupled with snow levels around 10,000 feet, caused all the river flooding.

Now, a look ahead to atmospheric river #2…there is uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rain will fall. This depends on where the heaviest plume of moisture sets up. Forecasts should come in to more agreement by late Saturday. However, it does seem likely that areas from approximately Skagit County northward and in the mountains will receive the most rain. The uncertainty is in how much rain will fall in the metro area. Below is the atmospheric river forecast for 3 AM Monday.

This is a classic Pineapple Express setup, and relatively the same impacts are expected as in the previous atmospheric river, so stay tuned for more information.

One additional impact with this atmospheric river is the potential for gusty winds up to 30-40 mph (locally higher at times) from late Saturday to Monday evening. 

In short: more rainy & windy weather, river flooding, and potential urban flooding is in the forecast. Stay tuned for an update by 10 PM Saturday.

Atmospheric River: Heavy Rain, Flooding, and High Snow Levels Through Friday

 FastCast—Thursday, Nov. 11 to Friday, Nov. 12:

An atmospheric river will bring heavy rain, urban & river flooding, and very high snow levels on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will also be on the mild side, due to a stalling warm front. Expect temperatures to rise to the upper 50s by Thursday morning, remaining there through late Friday. Rain will begin early Thursday, gradually picking up in intensity through the day. Heavy rain is expected at times from Thursday evening to Friday morning. Totals of 1-3 inches are expected around the region (except in the Olympic rain shadow). The highest totals in the lowlands (2-3 inches) will likely be between Seattle and Tacoma. On the coast and in the mountains, 2-10 inches are expected. Snow levels will skyrocket due to the stalled warm front, rising to 8,000-9,000 feet. River flooding is expected on most rivers, mainly from late Thursday night to Friday night. Additionally, urban flooding and ponding is expected. Remember to never drive through floodwaters! Expect rain to taper off by Friday afternoon/evening.

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For the second time in the past month, an impactful atmospheric river is heading for Western Washington. Heavy rain, urban & river flooding, high snow levels, and mild temperatures are expected. 

Rain will begin early Thursday, continuing through Friday afternoon/evening. The heaviest rain is expected from Thursday evening to Friday morning. Below is the UW forecast for total rain through 4 PM Friday.

Expect 1-3 inches across Western Washington. 2-3 inches (locally higher) are expected between Seattle and Tacoma and in adjacent foothills. Expect less rain (0.3-1.25”) in the Olympic rain shadow and more (2-10”) on the coast and in the foothills/mountains.

This is all due to an atmospheric river, or a narrow current of deep subtropical moisture, aimed right Western Washington. These are also known as the “Pineapple Express” due to their origin in the area around Hawaii. Below is the UW forecast for integrated water vapor transport (IVT), or amount of water vapor in the air, at 1 AM Friday, during the heaviest rain.

The current of high IVT values are aimed directly at Western Washington, which will bring the heaviest rainfall.

As expected, flooding will occur. NWS Seattle has issued a Flood Watch from Thursday evening to Saturday afternoon. The alert is posted below.

Two main concerns when talking about flooding with this atmospheric river.

Urban flooding, ponding, and standing water is expected around the region, especially by Friday morning. Be careful of clogged storm drains and low-lying spots on area roads. 

River flooding is expected on many rivers from late Thursday to Saturday. Below is the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service map for Western Washington.

Any river with a yellow (action stage), orange (minor), or red (moderate) dot means it will flood or come very close to flooding from Thursday to Saturday. Nearly every river originating in the Cascades will reach “action stage” or crest above flood stage on Friday or Saturday. Click the link above for frequently updated river observations. 

Remember to never drive through floodwaters, and as the National Weather Service says, “Turn Around, Don’t Drown!”

Expect rain to taper by Friday afternoon. A break is expected through most of Saturday, before rain begins again in the evening. Stay safe & stay tuned here and on Twitter (click the Twitter icon on the right side of the blog)!

Recap: Crazy Weather Day Around Western Washington

FastCast—Tuesday, Nov. 9 to Wednesday, Nov. 10:

What a crazy day around Western Washington! We’ll recap that in the blog below, so keep reading to hear more about Tuesday’s weather. Showers will continue through early Wednesday morning, totaling 0.1-0.4” around the Puget Sound area. Wednesday will likely be mostly dry through the evening, with mostly cloudy conditions and highs in the low to mid 50s. Rain begins late Wednesday, as an atmospheric river begins to impact the area. Heavy rain is expected at times on Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned for more information about the atmospheric river & its impacts.

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What a day in Western Washington! From strong winds to real severe weather, Tuesday had it all! Below is a radar image showing Tornado Warnings and a Special Marine Warning in the Silverdale area at 12 PM Tuesday. (Warnings are in the red and orange lines).

There was not a report of a tornado, but rotation was seen on radar. To add to the craziness of Tuesday’s weather, the Tornado Warnings triggered phone alerts outside the Kitsap Peninsula, including in the Seattle area.

The day started with a strong cold front (and big pressure gradient behind it) brought strong winds to the area. Gusts reached 40-55 mph on the water, 45 mph at SeaTac Airport, 52 mph at the Tacoma Narrows Bridge, and 49 mph in Bonney Lake. Additionally, easterly gusts up to 43 mph were recorded in the Enumclaw area before 5 AM. Over 20,000 customers lost power around the region, particularly in the foothills, Kitsap Peninsula, and the Eastside.

Below are Tuesday’s peak gusts…generally on the higher side of the forecast, especially near Puget Sound.

Winds have diminished as of Tuesday evening, although gusty winds are still possible in showers and near the water.

Thunderstorms were prevalent over parts of the region today. The NWS Storm Prediction Center planned accordingly, issuing a “Marginal” risk of severe weather from Olympia westward. The Pacific Northwest was the only area of severe weather in the entire United States today…quite a rare feat!

In addition to the aforementioned Tornado Warning, a thunderstorm had Severe Thunderstorm Warnings from Aberdeen to Shelton, for gusts up to 60 mph. (See radar image below from 2 PM Tuesday…the warning is the yellow-outlined polygon).

Multiple Special Marine Warnings for waterspout risks were also issued, a couple in Puget Sound and one off the far north Washington coast.

A few thunderstorms made it farther inland than Shelton, with some lightning in the Port Orchard area and a strike (with loud thunder) between Federal Way and Auburn this afternoon (see my photo below of the rain & dark clouds in SE Federal Way at 2:30 PM).

Now, our focus shifts to the atmospheric river, moving in to the area on Thursday. Heavy rain, very high snow levels, and potential flooding are all in the cards. Stay tuned for an update by 9 PM Wednesday about the atmospheric river (and don’t forget to enjoy a relatively dry day on Wednesday)!

Updated—Active Tuesday Ahead: Rain, Winds, Thunderstorms, and Mountain Snow

Update 7:10 AM: Wind Advisory issued for the Interior Lowlands through 4 PM Tuesday. Expect SW winds 25-35 mph, with gusts up to 40-45 mph. The alert is below.

Gusts of 30-45 mph have already occurred this morning, and are expected to continue through this afternoon, with a potential lull around 10 AM. Tree damage and isolated power outages are possible. 

Additionally, coastal flooding is possible along Puget Sound between 8 AM and 12 PM Tuesday.

There is also a Marginal risk of Severe Thunderstorms from Olympia westward today. Damaging winds are possible, and there is a slight chance of weak tornadoes. See the NWS Storm Prediction Center outlook below.

Stay safe today…lots of active weather around the area!

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FastCast—Monday, Nov. 8 to Wednesday, Nov. 10:

A storm moving north offshore of the Pacific Northwest will bring active weather to the area from Monday night through Tuesday. It begins with gusty Cascadia (gap) winds form Monday night to Tuesday morning. Easterly gusts of 40-50 mph are expected in the foothills, with gusts up to 30 mph downwind of the gaps in the metro area. Rain moves in very early Tuesday morning, with totals of 0.2-0.5” expected by Tuesday evening. Winds shift to southerly by sunrise on Tuesday morning, and gusts of 30-40 mph are expected area-wide during the day, with stronger gusts (40-50 mph) north of Everett and on the coast. Rain will taper and winds will decrease by early Wednesday morning. Expect a break in the rain until late Wednesday, when a potential atmospheric river will begin to impact the area. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low 50s, with lows in the low to mid 40s. Additionally, mountain snow is expected through Tuesday evening, with 2-8” at the passes and 12+” at higher elevations.

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Active weather is in store for late Monday through Tuesday, with gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow expected. 

Let’s start with gap winds…an elongated area of low pressure is offshore, and as of 9 PM, winds have gusted to 38 mph in North Bend and up to 43 mph in Enumclaw. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible in the foothills through early Tuesday morning. Scattered tree damage and isolated power outages are possible due to these winds. Away from the foothills, easterly gusts up to 30 mph are expected through around midnight.

Gap winds will decrease somewhat very early Tuesday morning (12-3 AM), and rain will move in. Below is the UW forecast for rain through 4 PM Tuesday.

Expect 0.2-0.5” across the interior, more on the coast, and less south of Olympia and north of Everett.

Winds shift to southerly by Tuesday morning. Expect gusts of 30-40 mph area-wide on Tuesday, and gusts up to 50 mph on the coast and north of Everett. Below is the forecast from the Windy app for Federal Way.

Winds shift from easterly to southerly around 4-7 AM, and gusts of 30-40 mph are expected through the evening.

Mountain snow is also expected, and coupled with gusty winds at times in the mountains, NWS Seattle has issued the first Winter Storm Warnings of the year. Below is an informative NWS Seattle graphic of expected snow through Tuesday evening.

Snow amounts will vary between different areas. Expect 2-3” at Snoqualmie Pass, 4-8” at Stevens and White Passes, and 12+ inches above 5,000 feet.

An atmospheric river, with heavy rain and very high snow levels, is still possible on Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned for more information as our active weather pattern continues!