Saturday Night Update: Heavy Rain, Gusty Winds, Next Round of Flooding Ahead

Update 10:25 AM: NWS Seattle has issued a Wind Advisory (below) through 12 PM Monday.

Expect south winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph through around noon Monday. Tree damage and power outages are possible, especially due to the high amount of soil saturation due to recent rains.

Additionally, as of 10:25 AM, warm air is advecting into the area due to a warm front that moved through late Saturday. Take a look at temperatures below!

Temperatures across the area are in the upper 50s to low 60s. With high humidity, dewpoints are also in the upper 50s to low 60s, meaning it’ll be muggy at times. Expect these temperatures to continue through midday Monday.

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FastCast—Saturday, Nov. 13 to Monday Nov. 15:

After a brief break in the rain on Saturday, the next atmospheric river has begun impacting Western Washington. Rain, heavy at times, will impact the region through Monday afternoon. Expect 1-3 inches of rain across the area, with the most rain from Skagit County northward and in the mountains. Another round of river flooding is expected as well, with rivers cresting on Monday and Tuesday. Rivers draining from the North & Central Cascades and Olympics will experience the most flooding, especially the Skagit River, where major and near-record flooding is possible. This atmospheric river will also bring warm temperatures (upper 50s to low 60s) from Saturday night to Monday afternoon. Gusty winds are possible from early Sunday to Monday evening around the area. Gusts up to 30-40 mph are possible, strongest near the water, and up to 45 mph from Everett northward. Read below for more information!

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Continue reading the full blog below!

The second atmospheric river in the past week is now impacting Western Washington. While some uncertainty remains over how much precipitation will fall, a good guess is shown in the UW model’s totals below. (This forecast suggests a more northerly orientation of the atmospheric river…some forecasts suggest a different outcome, so stay tuned).

Expect 1-2 inches of rain in the metro area, with locally higher amounts possible, especially between Tacoma and Everett. North of Mount Vernon, 2-4 inches are likely. In the mountains, 3-10 inches are expected. With snow levels in the 8,000 to 10,000 foot range through midday Monday, these elements will combine to generate river flooding. Below is the NWS River Flooding Forecast for this event.

Rivers draining from the North & Central Cascades and Olympics will go above flood stage, while some rivers south of Seattle will be in “action” stage (or near bank full). Of particular concern is the Skagit River, where major flooding is forecast and near-record flooding is possible between Concrete and Mount Vernon.

Additionally, gusty winds are expected with this atmospheric river, something we didn’t have with the previous atmospheric river. Below is the wind forecast for Federal Way from the Windy App. 

Expect gusts of 30-40 mph (locally higher) from early Sunday to Monday evening. Tree damage and isolated power outages are possible, especially due to the very saturated soils from recent rain.

Details about the heaviest rain and where it will set up (particularly from late Sunday into Monday) are still evolving. Stay tuned for an update by 10 PM Sunday.