Rainy End of the Week, Dry for New Year’s

FastCast—Friday, Dec. 30 to Sunday, Jan. 1:

A system will move through Western Washington from late Thursday through Friday, with rain becoming showery at times on Saturday. Across the lowlands, expect 0.4-1.25 inches of rain, except 0.2-0.4 inches for the Olympic rain shadow. The coast will get 0.75-1.5 inches, and the mountain passes will receive 4-10 inches of snow. Eastern Washington, mainly from I-90 northward and in Yakima County will get 1-3 inches of snow. Conditions in the lowlands will be breezy, with gusts of 25-35 mph possible, except up to 35-40 mph on the coast and from Everett northward. Winds will be strongest early Friday. Conditions will transition to partly sunny on New Year’s Day. Through New Year’s, expect highs in the mid to upper 40s, with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. 

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Continue reading the full blog below!

The last system of 2022 is moving into Western Washington, bringing showers and breezy conditions through midday Saturday. Let’s start with the European model forecast for total rain through 10 PM Saturday.

The European model shows 0.75-1.25 inches of rain for the lowlands, 1-2 inches for the coast, and 0.2-0.5 inches for Eastern Washington.

Let’s compare this with the higher resolution NAM model, showing rain through 11 PM Saturday.

The NAM shows lower precipitation amounts of 0.4-0.6 inches for the lowlands and 0.9-1.25 inches for the coast. Eastern Washington gets 0.2-0.4 inches with this forecast.

Additionally, mountain pass travel will be impacted by snow, as snow levels have dropped back below the passes. Let’s take a look at the European model’s forecast below, for snow through 10 PM Saturday.

The European model shows 4-10 inches of snow at the passes and 8-12 inches at higher elevations. Eastern Washington will receive 1-5 inches outside the lower Columbia Basin by Saturday.

Now, let’s take a look at the higher resolution NAM forecast for snow through 11 PM Saturday.

The NAM forecast shows 3-6 inches for the passes, 6-12 inches for the higher elevations, and 1-4 inches in Eastern Washington outside the lower Columbia Basin. 

There will be some windy conditions with this system, but only in localized areas and much calmer than the previous storm. Below is the European model showing max wind gusts on Friday morning.

Expect peak gusts of 25-35 mph in the lowlands and 35-40 mph on the coast and from Everett northward.

Finally, a brief break in the weather is expected for late New Year’s Eve through New Year’s Day. Below is the European model showing upper level conditions on New Year’s Day.

Notice inside the black box. This shows a brief high pressure ridge (called a transitory ridge) that will bring dry weather for the beginning of 2023!

Morning Update: Major Windstorm Expected, Impacts Likely

Update 8:00 AM Tuesday: It is likely that a significant windstorm will impact Western Washington on Tuesday. Strong gusts will bring a likelihood of widespread power outages and widespread tree damage. Low pressure, king tides, and strong winds will bring tidal overflow in Puget Sound and damaging high surf on the WA & OR Coasts. Continue reading below for an explanation of the impacts.

Let's start with the forecast. Below is Monday night's run of the high-resolution HRRR model. Forecasters have noted that this model seems to be accurately predicting the dynamics of the winds for the Seattle area. 

The HRRR shows peak winds around the lowlands around 4 PM Tuesday, with peak wind gusts of 55-65 mph. Earlier, the coast will peak at 60-70 mph, and around this time, Eastern Washington will reach 50-65 mph, and the Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca will be gusting 50-65 mph with a very strong westerly surge.

Below is a wind gust graphic from NWS Seattle, showing expected peak wind gusts around the region on Tuesday.

NWS Seattle is calling for gusts of 50-60 mph for all areas from Everett south and along the Eastern Strait.

Finally, the high-resolution NAM model forecast.

This forecast underscores the still-present uncertainty regarding the windstorm forecast, showing a lower & later peak winds (around 8 PM, 40-50 mph) for the Sound. It still shows 60-70 mph on the Coast, 50-65 mph in Eastern WA, and 50-60 mph along the Eastern Strait. Additionally, the NAM shows peak winds of 55-65 mph for the Portland area around 3 PM.

Regardless of the exact wind speed, any gusts over 45 mph can be problematic in Western Washington, with scattered power outages and tree damage possible. However, when gusts go over 50-60 mph, much more widespread power outages and tree damage is expected. Saturated soils from recent rain & snow will make it easier for trees to fall. Included below is the High Wind Warning for the Seattle area from NWS Seattle. It is in effect from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday, for SW winds of 30-40 mph, gusting to 55 mph. It is good practice to read the warnings and see what impacts are expected in the storm.

Below is a 7:45 AM satellite image, showing the storm offshore.

The area outlined in red is what we have to worry about. It is called the bent-back occlusion, sting jet, or scorpion's tail. This brings the strongest winds up the lowlands in a sudden surge, with gusts going from 20-30 mph to 45-65 mph in minutes. Be prepared for this sudden wind surge between 1 PM and 3 PM Tuesday.

Below is the UW forecast showing the strong pressure gradient that will cause the strong wind surge. This forecast is for 7 PM Tuesday, a bit later than the rest of the models.

The UW model shows the peak pressure gradient around 7 PM, later than other forecasts but showing the uncertainty that still exists with this setup.

Finally, due to very low pressure and king tides, coastal flooding/tidal overflow is expected around Puget Sound, and dangerous surf conditions are expected along the coast, with the combination strong winds, low pressure, king tides, and high surf creating dangerous conditions. Below is a NWS Portland graphic showing expected surf heights on Tuesday.

Maximum wave heights of 30-40 feet are expected for the WA & OR Coasts. This will likely run up most beaches at high tide and create areas of coastal flooding. Tidal overflow is also expected in bays and estuaries.

Stay tuned as this storm is ongoing. The best places to stay updated are Twitter (link on top right of blog), NWS Seattle, and Pacific Northwest Weather Watch on YouTube, where Michael Snyder makes a very informative briefing each day.

Stay safe and be prepared for power outages. Charge your cell phone and have a flashlight ready!

Major Windstorm Possible on Tuesday

Forecasts have now come into more agreement on the potential for a major windstorm across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. This event has a chance to produce major impacts across the region.

This event will happen in stages as a strong low approaches the coast. First, strong winds will hit the coast, especially the Oregon Coast, from Monday evening to midday Tuesday. Strong winds will hit the Washington Coast and Willamette Valley a bit later, from early Tuesday morning through midday. Peak winds in the Puget Sound area are expected from early afternoon to late evening, followed by an evening westerly surge down the Strait of Juan de Fuca.

Peak Winds (estimated):

Oregon Coast: Monday night to midday Tuesday

Willamette Valley: Early Tuesday morning to midday Tuesday

Washington Coast: Early Tuesday morning to Tuesday night

Puget Sound Lowlands: Midday Tuesday to Tuesday evening

Strait of Juan de Fuca: Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night

Below is the first forecast we'll look at. This is the NAM forecast, which accurately predicted the winds on Monday morning.

The NAM model paints a dangerous picture, showing peak gusts of 60-65 mph for the lowlands around 3 PM Tuesday. At other times, this forecast shows peak gusts of 60-80 mph on the Oregon Coast, 60-70 mph on the Washington Coast, 50-60 mph in the Willamette Valley, and 55-70 mph along the Eastern Strait. Eastern Washington will get gusts of 40-55 mph.

Next, we'll look at the HRRR forecast for peak winds in the lowlands.

The HRRR shows 55-65 mph gusts for the lowlands around 2 PM Tuesday. The Oregon Coast could reach 65-85 mph, 60-70 mph on the Washington Coast, 40-55 mph in the Willamette Valley, and 60-70 mph on the Eastern Strait. Eastern Washington will get gusts up to 50-65 mph.

So...why are winds this strong possible? The UW forecast below shows the low pressure system offshore at 7 AM Tuesday.

Notice the elongated low pressure moving onshore, with a massive pressure gradient down the Oregon Coast.

Fast-forward to 4 PM Tuesday.

There is a very strong pressure gradient across the Puget Sound area. This is what fuels the potential for 50-65 mph winds across the region.

Two additional impacts from this storm will be very high waves, with 25-35 foot breakers and significant coastal flooding on the Washington & Oregon Coasts. Additionally, southerly winds and very low pressure will bring coastal flooding and tidal overflow in Puget Sound.

Finally, another round of heavy rain is expected for the entire region. Below is the HRRR high-resolution forecast for rain through Tuesday night.

The HRRR shows 1-1.5 inches of rain in the lowlands and a significant soaking of 3-5 inches on the coast and in the mountains. Eastern Washington even gets 0.3-1.25 inches.

Next, the NAM high-resolution forecast, also for rain through Tuesday night.

The NAM shows 0.75-1.25 inches for the lowlands, 3-5 inches for the coast, 3-7 inches for the mountains, and 0.25-1.25 inches in Eastern Washington.

Stay tuned. This is potentially a major wind event, so I will post an update Tuesday morning.

Active Period Ahead: Heavy Rain, Windstorm, and Coastal Flooding Possible

 FastCast—Monday, Dec. 26 to Wednesday, Dec. 27:

An active period is ahead for the Pacific Northwest, with heavy rain, a potentially strong windstorm, and river/coastal flooding possible. A fast-moving atmospheric river will bring 1-2 inches of rain to the lowlands through Tuesday night. This will bring 2-3 inches on the coast and 3-7 inches in the mountains. Two systems will bring a potential for windy conditions. A system Monday morning will bring gusts of 25-35 mph to the lowlands and 40-50 mph to the coast and North Sound. Then, a much stronger system will approach the Washington Coast on Tuesday. The placement of this system will determine if the Puget Sound area and Willamette Valley will get strong winds. It’s certain that the Oregon Coast will have gusts of 60-70 mph. Stay tuned for more about this storm. With king tides occurring, coastal flooding is possible on the coast and around Puget Sound on Monday and Tuesday mornings.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

A stormy period of weather is ahead for the Pacific Northwest, with heavy rain, winds, and coastal flooding expected. 

Below is the UW forecast showing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere at 4 AM Monday.

This system is typical of an atmospheric river, but it will be on the fast-moving side, so  it doesn’t officially qualify as an atmospheric river. 

However, a significant amount of moisture will remain around the region at 1 AM Tuesday.

This will bring a significant atmospheric river to the Southern Oregon Coast and Northern California, while still bringing heavy rain to the Puget Sound area. 

So…how much rain will fall? Let’s take a look at the forecasts, starting with the European model through 10 PM Tuesday.

The European model shows 1.5-2.5 inches for the lowlands, with 3-5 inches in the mountains and on the coast, 2.5-3 inches in the Willamette Valley, and 0.5-1.25 inches in Eastern Washington.

This matches up well with the forecasts from the NAM high-resolution forecast, seen below through 11 PM Tuesday.

The NAM shows a bit less rain for the inland areas, with 1-2 inches for the Puget Sound area and Willamette Valley, 0.25-1.25 inches in Eastern Washington, 3-5 inches on the coast, and 5-10 inches in the mountains, increasing the potential for river flooding.

There is also a significant potential for a region-wide windstorm on Tuesday. First, a system offshore will bring breezy conditions to the lowlands and windy conditions to the coast on Monday, as seen below in the European model forecast for Monday morning’s peak wind gusts.

Expect 25-35 mph gusts around the lowlands, with gusts 40-50 mph from Everett northward and on the coast. 

A significantly stronger windstorm is possible on Tuesday, as seen in the UW forecast for 7 AM Tuesday.

A strong storm is offshore of the Washington/Oregon border, moving northward. Note: lines on the map are lines of constant pressure, how meteorologists measure the strength of winds and pressure. On Tuesday morning, this storm will be bringing 60-70 mph gusts to the Oregon Coast and potential coastal flooding to the entire region due to the combination of king tides and very low pressure. 

By 7 PM Tuesday, the storm has moved inland over Southern Vancouver Island.

Notice the very strong pressure gradient (closer lines) across Western Washington. This could bring significant winds to the Puget Sound area. 

However, as of Sunday night, it’s too uncertain to tell exactly what the impacts from this storm will be, so stay tuned to the next blog!

Ice Storm Recap

The Seattle area was hit by its first ice storm in 10 years on Friday. This storm produced significant impacts, especially on roads and at SeaTac, Paine Field, and Bellingham Airports. (Cool photos at the bottom of the blog!)

Ice accretion was measured to be 0.1-0.5 inches across the lowlands, including 0.3" at my house in Federal Way, seen below.

This was enough to make roads a sheet of ice and to significantly weigh down trees. Below is a Public Information Statement from NWS Seattle issued at 11 AM Friday. Most locations would go on to get 0.1-0.2 inches of ice.

So...how did forecasts do? As you would probably expect after all this winter weather, the historically reliable European model affirmed its position as the most reliable weather model in the world. See its forecast from before the event below.

This model accurately forecasted ice totals for the Puget Sound area, albeit a bit on the high end around Tacoma. The European model also accurately pinpointed the ongoing ice hotspots of Snoqualmie Pass, Stevens Pass, and the Columbia River Gorge.

As of 6:15 PM Saturday, I-90 and US-2 remain closed, along with WA-14 in the Columbia River Gorge. I-84 has recently reopened, and US-12 remains open over White Pass. Up to 1 inch of ice accretion prompted NWS Seattle's first Ice Storm Warning since 2012 (seen below in dark purple).

The Ice Storm Warning continues through 4 AM Sunday. Freezing rain will end in the passes on Sunday, with a transition to rain as snow levels rise to 6,500-8,000 feet.

One more note before some cool photos...the temperature has risen a substantial amount in the past 24 hours, as seen in the observations for 24 hour temperature difference from 12 PM Friday to 12 PM Saturday.

Wow! Temperatures were 10-25 degrees warmer today vs. 24 hours ago across the lowlands!

Finally, while ice is incredibly dangerous, as we all have seen across the area, it is also very interesting to take photos of. Below are some photos from around my yard during Friday's ice storm.

While sometimes hazardous & dangerous, weather can also be beautiful and mesmerizing. I hope all the readers of my blog have a very Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays! I'm very thankful to write this blog for all of you. 

Stay tuned, as an atmospheric river and potential windstorm are ahead for the days following Christmas. With this in mind, I'll likely post an update Christmas night.

Significant Pattern Change: Heavy Rain, Lingering Ice, Warmer Temperatures

 FastCast—Saturday, Dec. 24 to Monday, Dec. 26:

What a week! It has been a downright crazy week of winter weather across the region, and threats aren’t over for all. The largest ice storm Western Washington has seen since January 2012 brought 0.1-0.4 inches of ice across the region, producing huge travel impacts and making roads very treacherous (lowland side streets could remain icy through early Saturday). All areas have warmed into the mid 30s to mid 40s and begun melting except for parts of the Willamette Valley, Whatcom County, Snoqualmie & Stevens Passes, and the Columbia River Gorge. These areas will be impacted by an additional 0.1-0.2 inches of ice (except 0.3-0.5 inches in the passes/gorge) through early Saturday, except continuing through Saturday for the passes. Expect significant travel disruptions over the passes on Saturday. Widespread 0.1-0.3 inches of ice is expected across Eastern Washington on Saturday. In the lowlands, a heavy rain event is ahead, with 0.75-2 inches of rain from Saturday morning to late Christmas Day (Sunday). The main concern will be urban flooding due to runoff and snowmelt, so be prepared for areas of standing water and large puddles. Temperatures will skyrocket into the upper 40s to low 50s, and snow levels will shoot up to 8,000 feet (but cold air will keep freezing rain at Snoqualmie & Stevens Passes). Winds will gust 20-30 mph, and 40-50 mph from Everett northward. Another moisture-laden system will approach the area on Monday, so stay tuned!

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Continue reading the full blog below!

In 24 hours, we’ve gone from our most widespread & impactful ice storm in 10 years to talking about heavy rain and much warmer temperatures.

Below is the European model forecast, showing total rain through Christmas night.

Expect 1-2 inches across the lowlands, with less in the Olympic rain shadow. The mountains will be soaked with 3-5 inches of rain, and the coast will pick up 1.5-3 inches.

However, the freezing rain threat is far from over, especially for Snoqualmie and Stevens Passes and the Columbia River Gorge. Below is the European model forecast for freezing rain through Christmas night.

Expect 0.1-0.2 inches of freezing rain for the Northern Willamette Valley and Whatcom County. Impactful freezing rain is expected for Snoqualmie & Stevens Passes and the Columbia River Gorge, with 0.5-0.75 inches of ice accretion expected. Major travel impacts are possible with this setup. Additionally, expect 0.1-0.3 inches of ice across Eastern Washington.

Freezing rain will linger longest in the Columbia River Gorge and Snoqualmie & Stevens Passes. Expect freezing rain to end in these locations by Saturday evening, though the impacts of 0.5-0.75 inches of ice will remain into Christmas.

Freezing rain should end across the Pacific Northwest by Christmas night.

Let’s focus on the heavy rain threat for the lowlands. Below is the UW model for the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere at 7 AM Saturday.

This shows a large area of deep subtropical moisture moving into Western WA & OR. This is what will bring significant rain totals through Christmas, with another system bringing another round of heavy rain starting Monday.

High-resolution forecasts, while not always good with snow, are helpful in pinpointing areas of heavier rain totals. Below is the NAM forecast for rain through late Christmas night.

The NAM forecast shows 0.75-1.5 inches of rain across the lowlands, with a pronounced rain shadow on the NE Olympic Peninsula. The NAM gives the coast 1.5-4 inches, and the mountains get 3-8 inches. 

Next is the HRRR forecast, which paints a similar forecast through Christmas evening.

The HRRR shows 0.75-2 inches of rain in the lowlands, following the pattern of the most rain from Everett to Tacoma. There is a pronounced rain shadow on the NE Olympic Peninsula and Whidbey Island. The coast receives 1.5-3 inches, and the mountains get soaked with 3-8 inches.

What about temperatures? We will have our warmest temperatures (by far) in over a week, with some areas being 20-30 degrees warmer than 24 hours before. Below is the European model’s forecast for high temperatures on Saturday.

What an increase from the past two days. Expect lowland highs in the mid 40s to low 50s, with potential mid 50s on the coast! However, notice the lingering cold air in the Columbia River Gorge and Eastern Washington, which will aid in producing freezing rain. Highs in the Gorge and Eastern Washington will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, with some areas getting above freezing, particularly out of the topographic bowl of the Columbia Basin.

Finally, a look at the 24-hour temperature increase at 10 AM Saturday.

Expect Saturday morning’s temperatures to be 10-20º warmer than Friday in the lowlands, and 15-25º warmer in Eastern Washington and the Willamette Valley!

Stay tuned, as much more stormy weather is ahead. I will also post an ice storm recap blog on Saturday, including photos!

Major Ice Storm on Friday

A significant ice storm is expected for much of Washington and parts of Oregon over the next couple days, with significant impacts possible for the Seattle and Portland metro areas.

As of 8:00 PM Thursday, freezing rain has already begun around Portland, and has been reported as far north as Grays Harbor County in Washington.

Expect freezing rain to start from 11 PM to 4 AM from Seattle southward, and later in the morning north of Seattle. Freezing rain will taper west of the Cascades by Friday evening. Freezing rain will impact Eastern Washington on Saturday, and will impact the Cascades and Columbia River Gorge from Friday through Saturday.

This has potential to be a high-impact event, with significant travel disruptions (including shutdowns of PDX and SeaTac), widespread power outages, and a significant tree damage potential.

Below is the European model forecast for total freezing rain accumulation.

The European model forecast shows 0.25-0.5 inches of ice accretion from the Willamette Valley to Seattle and on the coast. This would be very disruptive. The Columbia River Gorge and Snoqualmie/Stevens Pass get very bad freezing rain totals of 0.5-1.25 inches. Eastern Washington will pick up 0.1-0.25 inches of freezing rain, but likely on Saturday.

Next, let's look at the GFS model forecast for total freezing rain accumulation.

The GFS forecast shows 0.1 to 0.3 inches of ice for areas from Seattle to the Willamette Valley, the WA Coast, and Whatcom County. This forecast likely overdoes the freezing rain in the mountains & Gorge, since 1.5-3 inches of ice seems unreasonable.

Next, let's look at the high-resolution Canadian model, the RDPS.

The RDPS shows a similar situation as the Euro, with most freezing rain (0.25-0.5") from Seattle to Eugene, plus 0.3-0.5 inches on the Coast and Whatcom County.

Finally, the HRRR forecast.

This is the highest-resolution forecast available, and it paints a good picture showing the localized differences in freezing rain. The HRRR shows 0.25-0.5 inches of freezing rain from Seattle south into the Willamette Valley, in Mason and S. Kitsap Counties, in Whatcom County, and 0.5-1" in the Columbia River Gorge. On Saturday, 0.05-0.4 inches is possible across Eastern Washington, highest near Wenatchee and Walla Walla.

Some areas will receive snow before a changeover to freezing rain. Let's take a look at the European model forecast for snow prior to the changeover.

Expect a trace to 1 inch from Seattle to Everett and on the Kitsap Peninsula. Eastern Washington will get 1-4 inches, and areas from Mount Vernon northward into BC will get 2-6 inches.

This graphic below from the National Weather Service talks about how dangerous freezing rain can be.

With power outages possible, below is a list of local public utilities sites to monitor:

Puget Sound Energy Outage Map

Tacoma PUD Outage Center

Seattle City Light Outage Map

As always, the best place to get frequent updates is Twitter (linked on top right of blog site), local news stations, Pacific Northwest Weather Watch on YouTube, and NWS Seattle.

Stay safe & stay tuned. More active (but wetter & warmer) weather is ahead through the end of December.

Extreme Cold Across Washington, Ice Storm Possible on Friday

No FastCast today. Continue reading the full blog below. (Ice storm information at bottom)

Extreme cold is expected across Washington state on Thursday, with frigid temperatures and incredibly cold wind chills. 

Let’s start with the forecast for low temperatures on Thursday morning. The NAM high resolution forecast is below, and it is likely showing the coldest possible solution.

If this forecast verifies, expect lows in the lowlands in the low to mid teens. Whatcom County will reach the low single digits, the coast will reach the low to mid 20s, and Eastern Washington will reach 20 below to 5 above.

For a bit more moderate of a forecast, below is the European model for Thursday morning lows.

The European model shows the lowlands dropping to the mid teens to low 20s, with some colder spots. Areas from Everett northward drop to the low single digits to the low teens, the coast drops to the low 20s to low 30s, and Eastern Washington drops to 20 below to 5 above (colder in the northern mountains and valleys, potentially as low as 30 below).

These temperatures are hazardous on their own, but due to a strong Arctic high over the Great Plains, there will be a cross-Cascade pressure gradient, causing biting easterly winds across the lowlands.

Wind chills will be coldest Thursday morning, around sunrise. Below is the NWS NBM forecast for wind chills at 8 AM Thursday.

Wind chills will be in the low single digits to low teens across Western Washington, except in the foothills and Whatcom County, where wind chills will reach -5 to -15. Incredible wind chills of -5 to -30 are expected for the Cascades and Eastern Washington.

Let’s see if the European model agrees. Below are the European model forecasts for wind chills at 7 AM Thursday.

The European model agrees, showing wind chills in the low single digits to low teens across Western Washington, except 0 to -10 in the foothills and from Mount Vernon northward. The European agrees with the incredible -5 to -35 wind chills in Eastern Washington and the Cascades.

High temperatures on Thursday won’t offer much relief from the cold. Below is the European model forecast for Thursday’s highs.

The European model shows highs in the low to mid 20s in lowlands, and in the low single digits to low teens in Eastern Washington (-5 to 5 in the Cascades).

Let’s compare this to the NAM high-resolution model, showing a colder forecast for Thursday’s highs.

The NAM forecast shows highs only getting into the upper teens to low 20s, with even the coast getting into the mid to upper 20s. Eastern Washington reaches the single digits to mid teens, with the Cascades only reaching -5 to 5. 

Wind chills around midday will remain very cold, as seen below in the European model forecast for 1 PM Thursday.

Around midday, the European model forecast shows wind chills remaining in the mid teens to low 20s, except in the single digits in Whatcom County. Eastern Washington and the Cascades will have wind chills in the -15 to +10 all day. 

These frigid wind chills all day are caused by the strong pressure gradient across the Cascades, which will bring winds gusting 15-30 mph in the lowlands and potentially 35-50 mph in the Cascade foothills and Whatcom County.

There is potential for a significant ice storm on Friday, with disruptive freezing rain possible. The European model forecast below shows the potential freezing rain accumulation through late Friday. 

This could be a significant ice storm for areas from Seattle to Portland. Substantial uncertainty remains, so stay tuned and prepare for potential impacts. I will have an update by tomorrow night.