Tuesday, December 20, 2022

Frigid Air Arrives, Lingering Snow Showers

 No FastCast tonight...continue reading the full blog below.

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First the snow, then the cold. It has been a wild 24 hours across Washington State, including significant lowland snow from Seattle northward, the now-lifted closures of all mountain passes, wind chills below zero in Whatcom County, and a plethora of snow and cold-related impacts across Eastern Washington. Due to cold temperatures, any snow that has fallen will remain and freeze over across the state.

As winter weather continues to impact Washington State, we will forecast it day-by-day on the blog, so stay tuned each night for new information.

Let's start with the European model forecast for Wednesday morning's lows.


Expect areas from Everett southward to drop into the mid to upper 20s, coldest east of I-5. Areas from Everett north will drop to the upper single digits to low 20s. Eastern Washington will be hazardous, with lows of 5 below to 15 above.

As seen in the European model below, highs on Wednesday have a hard time getting above freezing.


Expect lowland highs in the upper 20s to low 30s, except in the upper teens to low 20s in Whatcom County. Eastern Washington will only make it into the upper single digits to low 20s.

Wind chills will also be brutal across Eastern Washington, and quite frigid in Western Washington. The European model forecast for wind chills at 7 AM Wednesday is below.


On Wednesday morning, expect hazardous wind chills of 20 below to 10 above in Eastern Washington. In Western Washington, expect wind chills in the upper teens to low 20s south of Everett, and 10 below to 10 above from Mount Vernon northward.

By Wednesday evening, wind chills will be even colder, as seen on the European model forecast for 7 PM Wednesday.


On Wednesday evening, expect wind chills in the mid teens to low 20s for all of Western Washington south of Everett, including the coast. For areas north of Everett and on the Northern Olympic Peninsula, expect wind chills of 10 below to 15 above.

Eastern Washington will be hazardous, with wind chills of 25 below to 5 above. It is best to stay inside.

Finally, there are residual snow showers moving across parts of Western Washington due to Convergence Zone activity. We'll take a look at a few forecasts below to see how much snow to expect.

First, the European model, showing snow through Wednesday afternoon.


The European model shows light snow from Bellingham to Lakewood, with accumulations of a trace to 0.5 inches, except 1-2 inches near Tacoma.

Let's compare that to some other forecasts. Below is the NAM high-resolution model through Wednesday afternoon.


The NAM shows light snow from Mount Vernon to Longview, with accumulations of a trace to 1 inch, except 1-1.5 inches from South Seattle to Graham.

Lastly, let's take a look at the NWS NBM model, also through Wednesday afternoon.


The NBM model shows light snow from Mount Vernon to Olympia, with a trace to 1 inch of snow.

Major weather hazards remain, with the coldest temperatures expected on Thursday and freezing rain expected on Friday. Stay tuned and stay warmed!

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