FastCast—Tuesday, Sep. 6 to Saturday, Sep. 10:
Seasonable weather will continue through the week in Western Washington. Expect mostly sunny skies (except for morning clouds on Wednesday), with highs in the low 70s to low 80s, warmest on Tuesday and coolest on Thursday. Saturday will bring an extension of the heat trough north into Western Washington, bringing an abnormally hot day, with lowland highs in the mid to upper 80s. This warmth will be short-lived, with clouds increasing Sunday night. Expect lows to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Increased fire danger is expected on Tuesday in the foothills and Cascades, with a Red Flag Warning in effect. Remember to follow all burn restrictions. Keep reading below to learn about the extreme and unprecedented heat wave occurring in California this week.
————————————————————
Continue reading the full blog below!
While Western Washington enjoys near to slightly above average temperatures for this time of year, California will be baking in unprecedented heat. The heat will be worst in the Central Valley, which stretches from Redding to Bakersfield, and is home to 6.5 million people. Multiple all-time records will be challenged, tied, or broken during this heat wave.
Some records have already been broken in the first day of the heat wave (Monday), with more extreme temperatures expected Tuesday.
Let’s begin with the NAM model, showing California’s highs on Tuesday. The NAM has been on the hotter side of predictions in California, but these temperatures are not out of the realm of possibility.
These forecasts are extreme, almost unbelievable. It is reasonable that temperatures in the Central Valley will reach 115-119 degrees. Areas outside the Valley, including the Bay Area and LA Metro will reach the low 90s to upper 100s. For those wondering…Death Valley will be in the mid 120s (dark gray east of Ridgecrest).
Normally, forecasts like this are dismissed as crazy forecast models with a big glitch…but the HRRR model verifies the NAM’s extreme temperatures.
Below is the HRRR model, showing California’s highs on Tuesday. This has been more accurate than the NAM by a couple degrees.
The HRRR validates extreme highs of 115-118 degrees in the Central Valley. As in the NAM forecast, many other areas in California will be dangerously hot as well, with huge areas reaching 110+ degrees.
Not only will daily and monthly records be broken, but multiple all-time records have a decent chance of being broken. Some of these include Sacramento (115°), Fresno (115°), Stockton (115°), Merced (114°), and Modesto (113°). It is even more staggering that these all-time records will be broken in September. All the previous records were set in July or August.
The European model below shows the departure from average temperatures on Tuesday evening.
Temperatures in the Central Valley are an incredible 25-35 degrees above average. Notice that nearly the entire Southwest US is 10-20 degrees hotter than normal.
One final aspect that is important to know is what is causing this extreme heat wave. The UW forecast below shows the “heat dome” high pressure ridge that is allowing California to become extremely hot.
This ridge is dominating the Southwest, and although it is not centered over California, its influence is being felt. Should this ridge have been placed further northwest, Washington would be feeling more impacts of this heat wave.
It is important to emphasize just how extreme this heat wave is. The fact that temperatures will top 115° and make a run at all-time records in September is extreme, but when we consider the forecast for Friday (seen below from the European model), which includes highs still over 110° in the Central Valley, and 100°+ in Los Angeles, the only word that comes to mind is unprecedented.
We have not even begun considering the incredible impact that this heat wave will have on residents and the economy. For those without access to air conditioning, those working outside, and the vast agricultural industry in California, this heat wave has the potential to be devastating.
No comments:
Post a Comment