One of the strongest storms to impact Atlantic Canada in history is just hours from landfall in Nova Scotia.
Hurricane Fiona, now a post-tropical cyclone, has sustained winds of 105 mph, the strength of a Category 2 hurricane. 5-10 inches of rain will fall, and significant storm surge is likely in the many bays and inlets along the coasts of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.
Below is the European model forecast for late Friday night, showing Fiona’s approach to Nova Scotia.
The European model gives Fiona an incredible central pressure of 925 millibars, which would be the all-time record lowest pressure in Canadian history.
The incredibly close lines of constant pressure represent the very strong hurricane-force winds that will impact Atlantic Canada.
Below are wind gusts at 10:20 PM Pacific Time (2:20 AM in Nova Scotia).
Peak winds across most of Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island will be sustained 40-70 mph, with gusts of 75-110 mph, strongest on the coast. Extreme wind damage will be widespread, including power failures.
The duration of the winds will also be an issue. The European model forecast below is for 5 AM PDT.
This is about 6 hours after the forecast model shown earlier in the blog. In those 6 hours, Fiona will weaken, but hurricane-force winds will continue impacting a large area.
Additionally, strong and prolonged onshore winds will bring significant storm surge to many bays, inlets, and large lakes in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. This will cause significant coastal erosion and damage, including potential major impacts to the only causeway connecting Cape Breton Island to mainland Nova Scotia.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast for Fiona shows the expanse of Fiona’s wind field (brown/orange shading around the storm center).
The NHC’s latest advisory reports that hurricane-force winds (74+ mph) extend 185 miles from the center in all directions, essentially the distance from Seattle to the Tri-Cities or Salem, OR.
Although Fiona’s forward speed will slow substantially on Saturday, impacts for Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island should end by late Sunday, with wind speeds substantially lower even by Sunday morning.
However, we are not done talking about hurricanes. In fact, you will hear much more about an upcoming hurricane than you have about Hurricane Fiona.
Tropical Storm Ian formed on Friday evening. Ian is currently over the Caribbean Sea, south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Ian is forecast to pass south of Jamaica as a tropical storm, then pass near the Cayman Islands as a hurricane. It will make landfall in Western Cuba as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane late Monday. Ian will re-strengthen on Tuesday and Wednesday, and is currently forecast to make landfall on the east coast of Florida on Wednesday night as a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane.
Ian’s final outcome is incredibly uncertain, so stay tuned to my Twitter (accessed from the Twitter logo on the right side of the blog) for updates.
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