FastCast—Wednesday, Sep. 28 to Monday, Oct. 3:
There is a decent chance of showers across Western Washington on Wednesday, mainly in the afternoon, through early Thursday morning. Rain totals will be sporadic, with totals varying from a trace to 0.3 inches across the lowlands. However, the incoming weak system will clear out surface smoke and drop high temperatures from the upper 70s/mid 80s to the mid to upper 60s, a refreshing break. Conditions will remain cool and partly cloudy on Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Conditions will be sunnier on Friday, with highs reaching the low 70s. However, October will begin with temperatures 5-15 degrees above average. Expect lowland highs in the upper 70s with sunny conditions on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Warmer than average temperatures look to continue through the first week of October. Throughout the period, expect lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Read below for an update on Hurricane Ian.
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Continue reading the full blog below!
Dangerous Hurricane Ian is approaching Southwest Florida, with devastating storm surge, winds, and rain ahead. This blog will take a look at the very dangerous impacts of Ian in Florida and the Southeast at large.
Below is the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 8 PM PDT Tuesday.
Ian will make landfall on Wednesday evening as a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 130 mph. Landfall is expected to be between Fort Myers and Sarasota, FL. By Thursday morning, Ian will be a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph, over the Orlando area. By late Thursday, Ian will likely move offshore near Jacksonville, then back onshore near the Georgia/South Carolina border by Friday evening.
The hazard with the greatest threat to life in Hurricane Ian will be storm surge. The NHC storm surge forecast is below.
Notice the surge forecast for the Atlantic Coast, from Cape Canaveral to the Central South Carolina coast. This is due to Ian's onshore winds on Wednesday and the future Tropical Storm Ian's impacts when moving toward Georgia and South Carolina.
Another major and prolonged hazard with Hurricane Ian will be excessive rainfall. The European model forecast through Saturday morning is below.
A relatively narrow area of 15+ inches of rain will exist across Florida, with most of West, Central and NE Florida getting hammered with 5-10 inches.
This will contribute to a high risk of flash flooding. The NHC graphic below shows the risk of flash flooding through Friday.
Areas in pink have the highest risk of dangerous flash flooding. The major urban areas of Tampa Bay, Orlando, and Jacksonville are all in the “high risk” area, with a 70% chance of flash flooding. Virtually the entire state of Florida, except the Panhandle, has a 40%+ chance of flash flooding through Friday.
Before we get to the wind forecast, it is important to remember that forecast models often have a difficult time with predicting hurricane winds as storms move onto land. That is especially true in areas like Western Florida, where the coastline is full of marshes and inlets.
We will use the European model’s forecast showing peak winds over 6-hour periods.
This first frame is for Wednesday morning to early afternoon. Winds will gust 80-100+ mph from Tampa southward, and 45-55 mph along the east coast, including 50-55 mph in the urban core of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach.
The continuation is below.
This frame is for Wednesday afternoon to about an hour after sunset. During this time, winds will be gusting 75-120 mph along the west coast of Florida. The remainder of the state will have gusts of 40-60 mph.
Over the next 24-36 hours, strong gusts of 50-75 mph will occur in the Orlando and Jacksonville areas, along with the east coast cities, mainly north of Cape Canaveral.
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Summary of Impacts & How to Stay Updated:
Although Ian will be weaker over the interior of Florida, significant impacts are expected, along the the closures of Walt Disney World and Universal Studios Orlando. Additionally, as of Tuesday night, operations at the Tampa Bay, Fort Myers, and Orlando International Airports have been stopped or will be stopped. Significant delays are ongoing at Miami International.
From airports to highways, coastal communities to inland towns, and much more, Hurricane Ian will bring a plethora of devastating impacts to Florida. The biggest hazards are major storm surge, very strong winds, flash flooding and excessive rainfall, and a tornado threat in the outer bands of Ian. The storm’s slow speed will exacerbate all these impacts.
Hurricane Ian has already hit Western Cuba, crashing the entire country’s power grid, leaving 11 million Cubans in the dark. Key West, FL, has recorded its 3rd highest storm surge ever, and Ian is over 75 miles away. The worst has yet to come for Florida, sadly.
Stay tuned to Twitter, any national news outlet, The Weather Channel, FOX Weather, and of course the National Hurricane Center for all the latest updates throughout Hurricane Ian’s slow march through Florida, and keep all those impacted in your thoughts and prayers.
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