FastCast-Monday, Sep. 26 to Thursday, Sep. 29:
Record high temperatures are ahead for Western Washington, especially on Monday. Highs in the lowlands will reach the low 80s, except cooler near the water. In Eastern Washington and the Willamette Valley, highs will reach the mid 80s to low 90s. Daily record highs will likely be set around the Pacific Northwest. It will only be slightly cooler on Tuesday, with lowland highs in the upper 70s, the low 80s in the Willamette Valley, and the upper 80s to low 90s again in Eastern Washington. From Sunday afternoon through late Monday, light winds will be fueling weak offshore flow, bringing a return of haze and surface smoke to the lowlands and Red Flag Warning conditions to the Cascades on Monday. Air quality may degrade to the Moderate or Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups categories, with areas near the Cascades potentially reaching the Unhealthy category. However, this will slowly change on Tuesday, as winds switch to light onshore flow. It will be much better by Wednesday, with clouds returning and highs dropping to the upper 60s. Then, from late Wednesday to Thursday morning, RAIN is in the forecast! Expect 0.2-0.4 inches of rain around the lowlands, the most since early July. Stay tuned for more information, and find an update on Tropical Storm Ian at the bottom of the blog.
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Continue reading the full blog below!
The hot and dry summer of 2022 just won’t stop! Yet another round of warm temperatures and offshore flow begun on Sunday and will continue through Tuesday.
Below is the NAM forecast for highs on Monday.
Expect highs in the lowlands (away from the water) to reach the low 80s. Some areas in mountain valleys may even reach the mid 80s. Eastern Washington and the Willamette Valley will reach the mid 80s to low 90s. While not unprecedented, these temperatures are rare for the last week of September.
Offshore winds on Monday will bring areas of surface smoke to Western Washington due to the Bolt Creek Fire. The areas with the highest likelihood of surface smoke are along US-2 and areas from Everett northward. Degradations of air quality is possible as well, especially near the Cascades and north of Everett. (A new air quality link has been added to the right side of the blog. Click “PurpleAir AQI Map” for a very accurate and hyperlocal look at the current air quality.)
The warm weather will continue on Tuesday, as seen in the NAM forecast below.
Expect Tuesday’s highs in the lowlands to reach the upper 70s to low 80s, wit 80+ degree readings being less widespread than Tuesday. Notice that the coast cools to the upper 50s and the Willamette Valley drops to the upper 70s to low 80s. However, Tuesday will be warmer in Eastern Washington, where highs across nearly the entire region will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Now…what we have all been waiting for…a big and very welcome change. RAIN is in the forecast! The large ridge offshore will break down by Wednesday, bringing a chance of showers by Wednesday evening. Rain will continue at times through early Thursday. The European model forecast is below for rain through 5 AM Thursday.
The European model shows 0.2-0.4 inches of rain in the lowlands and 0.5-1.25 inches in the mountains and on the coast! There is still uncertainty regarding the exact timing and amounts of rain, so stay tuned for more information.
Besides a chance of rain, Wednesday will also bring a big cooldown from Tuesday’s temperatures. The European model forecast is below.
In the lowlands, Wednesday afternoon will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Tuesday. In the mountains, it will be a whopping 20-30 degrees cooler!
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Tropical Storm Ian:
As of 9:20 PM Sunday, Ian is a strengthening tropical storm located SW of Jamaica in the Caribbean Sea. On Monday, Ian will begin rapid intensification, becoming a 115 mph Category 2 hurricane by Tuesday. Ian will cross Western Cuba, bringing storm surge of 9-14 feet and winds over 100 mph. By Wednesday morning, 130 mph Hurricane Ian will be off the west coast of Florida. Although Ian will weaken prior to landfall, it will also slow down. Major storm surge is likely for Western Florida.
The National Hurricane Center forecast for Ian is below.
Notice how Ian slows down (“M” icons closer together) from late Tuesday to late Thursday as it moves into Western Florida. This will likely create significant damage along Florida’s West Coast, as Ian’s storm surge and expanding wind field keep Florida in their crosshairs for over 24 hours.
However, substantial uncertainty remains. The “spaghetti model” probability plot from the incredibly helpful Tropical Tidbits website by Dr. Levi Cowan is below.
This forecast shows the potential tracks of Ian from many different forecast models. The models range from a disastrous landfall near Tampa Bay to a landfall near Pensacola, nearly 340 miles away.
For updated information on Ian, stay tuned to Twitter (right side of the blog) and the National Hurricane Center.
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