FastCast--Tuesday, June 4 to Sunday, June 9:
After a significant atmospheric river brought 1-2" of rain to the lowlands and 2-4" to the mountains & coast from Sunday to Monday, we have one more storm system before conditions dry out and warm up for the remainder of the extended forecast. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, expect rain at times with winds potentially gusting 30-40 mph, locally stronger, mainly on the coast and Everett northward. Gusty winds will slowly diminish through the day Tuesday, with showers remaining but decreasing in coverage all day. Most of the lowlands will receive an additional 0.15-0.3" of rain on Tuesday. Expect highs on Tuesday to reach the low 60s, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Conditions will change dramatically from Wednesday onward, as a strong ridge builds over the Western United States. This ridge will bring a dangerous heat wave to much of the Southwest, while providing pleasantly warm conditions to Western Washington. Expect Wednesday to Sunday to be mostly sunny, with highs increasing from the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday to the upper 70s to low 80s on Saturday and Sunday. Some high clouds could bring filtered sunshine at times over the weekend. Lows will range from the mid to upper 40s on Wednesday morning to the mid 50s on Sunday morning, thanks to high clouds. Sunny & calm weather is expected to continue into next week, as of now.
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An interesting beginning to June continues overnight Monday into Tuesday, with another round of wind and rain expected.
Winds gusted 35-45 mph across the region early Monday morning, causing over 40,000 customers to lose power across Western Washington. Winds later caused two cruise ships to be unable to dock in Elliott Bay on Monday afternoon.
More wind will impact the state on Tuesday, peaking in the morning west of the Cascades and in the afternoon east of the Cascades. Below is the NAM high-resolution forecast, showing the higher end of potential winds.
This forecast shows another round of 35-40 mph gusts across the lowlands, with gusts of 40-45 mph for Island, San Juan, and Whatcom Counties. The coast gusts 40-50 mph in this forecast. Eastern Washington gusts 40-45 mph, with backcountry areas of the Cascades and Olympics gusting 45-55 mph.
Let's compare this to the European model's forecast, also showing peak winds on Tuesday.
This forecast shows gusts of 35-40 mph for most of the lowlands and the coast, except 40-45 mph around Whidbey and Camano Islands. Eastern Washington gusts 35-45 mph in this forecast, with gusts over 50 mph in some backcountry areas of the Cascades.
Regarding rain, expect rain at times overnight Monday into Tuesday, turning showery through the day, with showers gradually diminishing in coverage. Below is the European model forecast for rain through Tuesday night.
This forecast shows 0.2-0.3" for the lowlands, 0.5-0.8" on the coast, and 0.4-0.6" for Whatcom & Skagit Counties. The Cascades and Olympics will get an additional 1-1.8" with this system.
However, major changes are afoot as this system clears the region. A great way to see these changes is to look at our upper-level pattern of low pressure troughs and high pressure ridges.
Below is the upper-level forecast (at around 18,000 feet) from the European model, for late Monday night.
Notice the large area of troughing across the Northwest and over the Gulf of Alaska. This is what has given us cooler and wetter conditions over the past few days.
Now, let's compare to the forecasted pattern on Friday, seen below.
This is a huge change! All troughing is gone, replaced by a massive ridge that covers the entirety of the Western US. This will bring a mostly sunny pattern for at least a week.
Let's take a look at how temperatures across the region will change through this week. We'll use the high-resolution NWS NBM model, looking at highs from Tuesday to Friday.
First, the NWS NBM forecast for Tuesday's highs.
Expect lowland and coastal highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, with some areas reaching the mid 60s. This is definitely on the chillier side for June. The Willamette Valley will reach the mid 60s, and Eastern Washington will reach the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Next, the forecast for Wednesday's highs.
Wednesday will be the first of a long stretch of pleasant days across the region. Expect lowland highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, coastal highs in the low to mid 60s, and Willamette Valley highs in the mid 70s. Eastern Washington will reach the upper 60s to upper 70s.
Conditions continue to warm up on Thursday, especially in Eastern Washington, as seen below.
On Thursday, expect lowland highs to increase to the upper 60s to mid 70s, with the coast reaching the mid to upper 60s, and the Willamette Valley reaching the low 80s. Eastern Washington will skyrocket to the upper 70s to upper 80s, hottest around the Tri Cities.
Finally, let's take a look at the forecast for Friday. It'll be an early June scorcher for some parts of the region.
Expect highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands, the low to mid 70s on the coast, and the mid to upper 80s in the Willamette Valley. Eastern Washington will reach the mid 80s to mid 90s, with the Tri Cities likely reaching the mid 90s (upper 90s aren't out of the question either).
Conditions will remain somewhat similar on Saturday, although a significant chance of thunderstorms over SE Oregon and Idaho could change temperature forecasts due to cloud cover. Stay tuned!
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