Final Chance of Snow on Sunday, Chilly Weather Remains

No FastCast today (will be included Tuesday), but continue reading the full blog below.

After a somewhat badly-forecasted and dynamic system from late Friday to early Saturday, there is one more chance of snow on Sunday.

The same system from Saturday will move back north, bringing a band of snow that will extend north to anywhere from Olympia to Seattle. The best chance of snow north of Centralia will be from midmorning Sunday through late afternoon. With temperatures in the low 30s, accumulating snow is possible, so let’s take a look at the forecast

Let’s start with the European model forecast for snow through late Sunday.

The European model shows 0.5-1 inch of snow from Seattle southward. Areas from Portland to Grand Mound will get 1-3 inches. 1-4 inches will fall in Eastern Washington and Eastern Oregon, plus 4-8 inches in the Columbia River Gorge.

Now, let’s take a look at the high-resolution NAM model, also showing snow through late Sunday.

The NAM forecast shows 0.5-2 inches of snow from Everett southward, with 2-4 inches from Vancouver (WA) to South Tacoma. Parts of Eastern Washington will receive 0.5-4 inches of snow, with 4-8 inches in the Columbia River Gorge.

Finally, let’s take a look at the high-resolution UW model.

The UW forecast shows snow stopping at Centralia, with 0.5-1 inch south of there,  plus 1-4 inches in the Cascades from Stevens Pass southward. There is also a chance of 0.5-2 inches on the Northern Olympic Peninsula, according to this forecast.

Overall, it’s a wait-and-see situation, with the main question being how far north the snow will get, and if a relatively weak system can win the battle against northerly winds. 

This will be the final chance of lowland snow in this pattern, but the weather will remain chilly, as seen in the European model’s forecast for highs on Monday.

Monday’s highs will be chilly, with the lowlands not getting above 40 degrees, topping out in the upper 30s. Eastern Washington will be much colder, with very cold highs in the mid to upper 20s, except in the 30s in the lower Columbia Basin.

Now, let’s take a look at the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s extended outlooks for December 9th-13th. First up is the temperature outlook.

This outlook shows a 40-60% probability of below average temperatures into the middle of December.

Next, the precipitation probability outlook, seen below.

This outlook calls for a 40-60% probability of above average precipitation through mid December. 

In short, after a chance of snow on Sunday, chilly weather will remain, and it is likely that the pattern will turn active in the middle to end of the upcoming week, so stay tuned!

Update: Snowing Again Around Puget Sound

No FastCast tonight…this is a brief update on the situation across Western Washington Friday evening.

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As of 10:30 PM Friday, snow is falling across most of Western Washington, with accumulations on roads, mainly from Federal Way northward and away from sea level. Conditions are especially bad in Mason and Kitsap Counties, where heavy snow is falling and roads are closed.

Let’s take a look at a few forecasts, updated this evening. First is the European model, showing snow through Saturday morning.

The European model shows 0.5-2 inches of snow from Tacoma to Everett, and 3-6 inches on the Kitsap Peninsula and around Hood Canal.

Next, the NAM model, which has a higher resolution, also showing snow through Saturday morning.

The NAM shows 1-3 inches from Tacoma to Everett, with a sharp cutoff south and east of Tacoma. The NAM gives the Kitsap Peninsula and Hood Canal area up to 8 inches of snow.

Finally, we’ll take a look at the UW model, showing snow through Saturday morning.

The UW forecast shows 1-3 inches from Tacoma to Mount Vernon, with an area of 3-5 inches from North Seattle to Everett. This forecast gives the Kitsap Peninsula and Hood Canal 4-12 inches, most near Hood Canal.

The biggest challenge for snow will be near sea level and in lighter precipitation rates, as temperatures are still quite marginal around the area. Snow will taper for the lowlands by early Saturday morning, later for the Kitsap Peninsula and Hood Canal area. The best way to stay updated is to stay tuned on Twitter (link in the top right of the blog).

Very Cold Night & the Next Uncertain Snow Event

No FastCast tonight…continue reading below for more information about the cold temperatures overnight Thursday to Friday morning and the next potential snow event from Friday evening to Saturday morning.

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It was a cold day across the region on Thursday, with highs only reaching the low to mid 30s. Most areas from Seattle south picked up 0.5-3 inches of snow, except 4-9” in the Cascade foothills including Bonney Lake, Buckley, and Enumclaw. 

A very cold night is ahead for the entirety of Washington State, as we will see below. Let’s take a look at the European model forecast for low temperatures on Friday morning.

Expect lows in the lowlands to be in the low to mid 20s, except in the upper teens in outlying areas and from Everett northward. Eastern Washington and the Cascades will be incredibly cold, with lows in the single digits to low 20s, with some parts of Northern Washington dropping into the -10 to 0º range.

All remaining slush, snow, and wet roads will likely be frozen on Friday morning, and there is a potential for freezing fog in the South Sound, so be prepared.

Temperatures on Friday will be slightly warmer than Thursday, likely reaching the mid 30s to near 40. 

By Friday evening, another storm will be offshore and will be pushing some precipitation into the area. This will be a tough storm to forecast as temperatures will be marginal and the placement of the storm is not ideal for lowland snow. 

Let’s take a look at the European model forecast, which has consistently been the most accurate with these snow events so far. This is showing total snow through Saturday.

The European model shows that the most likely area for snow will be the Kitsap Peninsula and Hood Canal Area, with 2-8 inches. The European model shows that the lowlands will receive 0.5-1.5 inches of new snow. 

However, the next forecast, from the NAM model, shows a trend among some of the high-resolution models to keep snow out of the Puget Sound area altogether. That forecast (through Saturday) is below.

The NAM and some other high-resolution forecasts show 3-8 inches on the West & North Kitsap Peninsula and around Hood Canal, with a chance of a dusting elsewhere. One exception to this is areas from Bellingham north, where forecasts show 0.5-5”, most north of Bellingham into parts of the Vancouver BC metro area.

Overall, it will be very cold from Thursday night into Friday morning, with another very uncertain snow forecast from Friday night to Saturday morning. Stay tuned on my Twitter page (link at top right of blog site) where I frequently update with the latest from local meteorologists. Stay warm!