Abnormal October Continues: Dry, Smoky, Slight Chance of Rain

FastCast—Saturday, Oct. 8 to Friday, Oct. 14:

A dry and warm October will continue in the next week, with only a slight chance of rain on Monday. Surface smoke from the Bolt Creek Fire (36% contained) will continue degrading air quality over the weekend. An Air Quality Alert is in effect for all of the lowlands through Sunday night. Highs this weekend will be in the low to mid 70s. A system will move north of the area on Monday, bringing a cooldown and cloudier conditions to the mid 60s to low 70s on Monday and Tuesday, plus a slight chance of rain on Monday, due to a potential Convergence Zone. The most rain would be only 0.05-0.2 inches, mainly in the mountains. Temperatures will rebound Wednesday through Friday, remaining above average, in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows throughout the entire week will be in the mid 40s to low 50s.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

October 2022 is shaping up to be one of the driest Octobers in Western Washington history. The NWS Climate Prediction Center outlooks for October 13-17 show the abnormal conditions.

There is a 70-80% chance of above average temperatures across the Pacific Northwest, with a bullseye of an 80-90% chance of above average temperatures across parts of Oregon and Washington. This suggests a high probability that warmer than normal conditions will continue through next week in Western Washington.

The CPC outlook for precipitation isn’t any better.

This outlook shows a 60-70% chance of below average precipitation across most of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana through next week. This includes Western Washington, suggesting that it will remain much drier than normal through mid-October.

The situation has gotten bad enough that the US Drought Monitor has upgraded Western Washington to the “moderate” drought category.

Luckily, this drought will be short-lived once precipitation begins moving through the area. Notice that the entirety of Washington state is now under the abnormally dry or moderate drought categories.

Smoke is another significant issue over the weekend. The HRRR smoke forecast for Saturday afternoon is below.

Surface smoke will be thick in the foothills and Cascades, with AQI likely in the “unhealthy” category. Most of the lowlands will have AQI in the “moderate” to “unhealthy for sensitive groups” categories throughout the entire weekend. Smoke will also be heavy for large areas of Eastern Washington, most of the Cascades, and the Willamette Valley. Expect surface smoke coverage to fluctuate throughout the weekend as smoke moves through the area. 

Sunday will bring some improvement in the lowlands, but air quality will remain degraded. The HRRR forecast is below.

On Sunday, surface smoke will still be thickest in the foothills and Cascades, but air quality will be degraded across the region. Surface smoke will also be heavier in the Willamette Valley, Eastern Washington south of I-90, and on parts of the Oregon coast. To escape the bad air, head to the Washington coast, where it will be replaced by a thick and constant marine layer.

A weak system will move to the north of the region on Monday, bringing a very slight chance of rain. Forecast models have been having a hard time pinpointing if it will or won’t rain on Monday. The European model forecast is below.

The current European model forecast shows 0.05-0.2 inches of rain along the coast and in the mountains. The best chance of rain in the lowlands is in the Convergence Zone area (South Seattle northward) and areas from Everett northward. Total rain will only be a trace to 0.1 inches, with another dry week ahead.

Stay tuned for more information as this abnormal October continues.