Saturday, January 13, 2024

Record Cold Temperatures, Strong Gap Winds

Extreme, record-breaking cold is continuing across the Northwest. If Seattle dips below 14°, it will be the coldest night since 1990. Let's take a look at the forecast!

First, let's take a look at the European model forecast for lows on Saturday morning.


The European model shows lows in the lowlands dropping to the low to mid teens, with outlying areas and areas from Everett to Mount Vernon likely reaching the single digits. Eastern Washington will drop to -10° to 10°, with the mountain valleys dropping to -15°. Even the coast will drop to the mid to upper teens.

However, it is possible that temperatures will get colder than this. Below is the NAM high-resolution forecast for lows on Saturday morning.


The NAM shows morning lows dropping to the upper single digits to low teens for the entirety of the lowlands, with Whatcom County in the low to mid single digits. In this forecast, most of Eastern Washington drops to 10° to -10°. This forecast is somewhat more unlikely (especially in the lowlands) but still remains in the realm of possibility.

On Saturday, highs will not be warm at all. The European model forecast is below.


The lowlands will likely have highs in the mid to upper 20s, although some areas will only reach the low 20s. In Eastern Washington, expect very cold highs in the low single digits to low teens, except in the low 20s for the lower Columbia Basin.

Next, let's take a look at the potential winds on Saturday afternoon, from the NAM high-resolution forecast.


This forecast shows Fraser outflow winds in Whatcom and San Juan Counties gusting 30-45 mph. Notice that winds through gaps in the Cascades are forecast to increase through the day on Saturday, peaking in the afternoon. This will bring gusts of 40-50 mph to the foothills (isolated stronger gusts, especially around Enumclaw and North Bend), with easterly gusts of 25-35 mph possible in the lowlands from Seattle to Tacoma. Additionally, strong offshore winds will gust 30-40 mph on the coast from Cape Flattery to La Push and from Seabrook to Long Beach. 

These winds, which will first turn offshore early Saturday morning, will bring frigid wind chills to Western Washington. Below is the NAM forecast for wind chills on Saturday morning, around sunrise.


This forecast shows wind chills dropping to 0° to -5° from Seattle to Aberdeen (except down to 0° to -10° near Everett due to gap winds), and down to -5° to -15° in Whatcom County and the Cascade foothills. The remainder of the area will have wind chills of 0° to 10°. 

Now let's take a look at the forecast for wind chills across the state, from the European model forecast, showing wind chills on Saturday morning.


This forecast shows extreme wind chills in Eastern Washington, dropping to -5° to -30°. Western Washington drops to -5° to 5°, except colder in the foothills. Take precautions if you are outside, and don't be outside for long, especially in Eastern Washington.

Cold weather will persist through the weekend, including a potentially major winter storm for Northern Oregon and SW Washington. For information, refer to NWS Portland. I will have another update on Saturday night. 

Remember to take precautions to protect yourself, your pets, your home, and your plants from this cold weather.

1 comment:

  1. You are so right, it is soooooooooooo cold!

    ReplyDelete

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