Weekend Storm, Potential for Big Changes Ahead

 FastCast--Saturday, Mar. 9 to Friday, Mar. 15:

A weekend storm will bring strong winds, rain, and snow to the region from Saturday to Sunday, with an additional system ahead from Monday to Tuesday. Generally, expect winds gusting 30-40 mph across the lowlands, with some areas near the water gusting up to 45 mph. Winds will likely peak midday to afternoon Saturday. The coast and North Sound will gust up to 50 mph. Expect 0.5-0.8" of rain across the region through Sunday, with 5-10" of snow at the passes. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s to low 50s through Wednesday, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Starting Thursday, a major pattern shift will begin, with potential growing for a huge high pressure ridge to build over the Northwest, bringing much warmer spring weather and sunnier conditions by the end of the week. Thursday will be partly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s, and Friday will be partly to mostly sunny, with highs reaching the low to mid 60s! Stay tuned for more information, and keep reading below for a look at the weekend storm.

Don't forget to turn your clocks forward this weekend, as Daylight Saving Time begins at 2 AM PDT Sunday.

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A storm will move through the region this weekend, bringing wind, rain, and mountain snow.

Let's start by taking a look at the wind forecast, starting with the European model below.

The European model shows winds from Seattle south gusting 40-45 mph, with most areas from Whidbey Island north also gusting 40-45 mph, except up to 50 mph around the San Juan Islands and on the coast. This forecast has winds increasing quickly midday Saturday, peaking in the afternoon.

Let's compare this to the HRRR high-resolution forecast, also showing peak winds.

This forecast shows winds across the entire region gusting 40-45 mph, with strong gusts of 45-55 mph for Whatcom, Island, San Juan, and Eastern Clallam & Jefferson Counties, particularly the Admiralty Inlet area. This forecast also shows very strong gusts up to 55-65 mph for the coast, strongest around Long Beach. (Note: These strongest winds around Admiralty Inlet and the coast occur early Sunday morning in this forecast).

Let's take a look at the high-resolution NAM forecast, shown below.

This forecast shows gusts of 35-40 mph for the entire region, with gusts up to 45 mph south of Tacoma and north of Everett. Gusts reach 50 mph in the San Juans and 50-55 mph for the coast. 

Next, let's take a look at the rain forecast through late Sunday night, shown below on the European model.

Through late Sunday, expect 0.5-0.8" of rain for most of the lowlands, with the Kitsap Peninsula getting up to 1-1.25". The coast will be quite wet, with totals of 2-3.5" through late Sunday.

Finally, let's take a look at the snow forecast through late Sunday, seen below on the European model.

This forecast shows a total of 5-10" of snow at the passes. This amount of snow likely won't cause significant impacts, but do be prepared if you're crossing the passes.

Now, let's end the blog by taking a look at the significant spring weather shift ahead. Below is the European Ensemble forecast showing the major high pressure ridge set to build over the region late next week.

This is a huge high pressure ridge, centered just offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast. This forecast, for Thursday, shows the ridge before it moves eastward and is directly over the region. What will the effect be, you ask?

High pressure ridges deflect weather systems and generally bring warmer and sunnier conditions. This will certainly be the case if this forecast verifies. Below is the European Ensemble forecast for highs next Saturday (the 16th).

For all you spring weather lovers out there, this is your forecast! This shows highs reaching the mid to upper 60s for the entirety of Western Washington and Western Oregon! Stay tuned over the next few days as we get more details on the warmup!

Unseasonably Cold Nights Ahead for Western Washington

 FastCast--Wednesday, Mar. 6 to Saturday, Mar. 9:

Unseasonably cold nights are ahead for Western Washington, with clear skies allowing for temperatures to drop well below typical overnight lows. On Wednesday morning, expect lowland lows in the mid 20s, with areas near the water remaining in the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the low to mid 40s, with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Another cold morning is likely on Thursday, with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Thursday will be mostly sunny and a touch warmer, with highs reaching the mid to upper 40s. Clouds (and temperatures) increase on Friday. With a chilly morning (lows in the low to mid 30s), temperatures will climb to the low to mid 50s, under cloudy skies. Some showers will try to move into the area late on Friday. Wetter and more active weather will arrive for the weekend and the start of next week, so stay tuned.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

The next couple mornings will be quite chilly across the state, with overnight low temperatures dropping far below normal. This could have negative impacts on any plants that are starting to grow, so be aware if that will impact your plants. Let's take a look at the forecast!

First, let's take a look at the European model forecast for lows on Wednesday morning.

Expect the lowlands to drop into the mid 20s, with some areas near the water remaining in the upper 20s to low 30s. The coast will only drop to the low to mid 30s. In Eastern Washington, expect lows in the low 20s, except in the mid to upper 20s in the Columbia Basin. Mountain towns and the passes will drop all the way to the single digits!

You might be thinking to yourself that these temperatures seem quite cold for March, and you are right. Below is the European model forecast, showing temperature departure from average at 7 AM Wednesday (the coldest time of the day).

At the coldest time of day on Wednesday, temperatures across Western Washington are 10-20° below average, with temperatures in Eastern Washington being 10-15° below average. Mountain towns will be a whopping 15-25° below average!

Wednesday's highs won't be too warm, either (although it will be partly to mostly sunny). Below is the European model forecast for highs on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, expect highs across Western Washington to only reach the low 40s, with Eastern Washington remaining in the upper 30s to low 40s, except in the mid 40s around the Tri-Cities.

Thursday morning will be another cold one, as seen below in the European model forecast.

Expect Thursday morning's lows in the lowlands to be in the mid 20s to low 30s, coldest east of I-5. The coast will again be in the low to mid 30s, while Eastern Washington will drop to the low to mid 20s (upper 20s in the lower Columbia Basin). The passes and similar mountain towns will again drop into the single digits to low teens.

Finally, despite the cold temperatures, we will get a nice break in the rain. Below is the European model forecast for total rain through Friday night.

All the rain that is shown in this forecast will likely fall late on Friday, with the most being over the North Coast. Areas along the I-5 corridor will receive light amounts of rain, with up to 0.15" around Bellingham. 

However, much more rain and a few days of active weather are expected from this weekend into early next week, so stay tuned (and enjoy the calmer & drier weather)!

Cold & Showery Conditions Continue to Begin March

FastCast--Monday, Mar. 4 to Friday, Mar. 8:

March will begin on the cold and showery side...at least through Tuesday. On Monday and early Tuesday, expect a chance of showers, with areas of rain/snow mix or very brief snow accumulations possible, mainly Monday morning and Monday evening, when temperatures are colder. Expect highs from Monday to Wednesday to reach the low to mid 40s across Western Washington, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, coldest in outlying areas. Conditions will dry out as well, with Tuesday to Thursday being dry and partly cloudy. There's a potential for some low temperatures to drop well into the 20s around midweek, so stay tuned for more information on that. Additionally, highs will reach the upper 40s to low 50s on Thursday and Friday. Rain looks to return Friday evening, as a more active pattern emerges.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

March will begin on the chilly side across Washington, with lingering showers on Monday and early Tuesday, before a break from midday Tuesday through late Friday. Let's take a look at the forecast!

We'll begin with the European model forecast for low temperatures on Monday morning.

Expect lows in the lowlands and on the coast to drop to the low to mid 30s, with areas from Olympia southward dropping to the upper 20s to low 30s. Most of Eastern Washington (except the lower Columbia Basin) will drop to the mid to upper 20s, with the basin remaining in the low 30s.

Next, let's take a look at lows on Tuesday morning. With less showers around, temperatures will drop further.

Conditions will be a bit cooler on Tuesday morning, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s for most of Western Washington, except dropping to quite chilly lows in the mid 20s from Everett northward. Eastern Washington will drop to the mid 20s to low 30s, except in the mid to upper teens around Spokane.

Now, let's take a look at the remaining precipitation for the region, starting with the NAM high-resolution forecast for snow through Tuesday.

This forecast shows a potential for 2-6" of additional snow in the passes, with a potential for snow showers and brief snow accumulation across Western Washington, most likely from Olympia southward and in Whatcom County. Additionally, areas of Eastern Washington including Spokane, Pullman, and Walla Walla could receive an additional 1-3" of snow.

Let's compare this to the European model forecast for snow, also through Tuesday.

This forecast show a potential for brief accumulating snow showers across the state (for the lowlands, amounts are likely overdone). This shows the highest probability of snow showers in this forecast are from Everett north and from Tacoma south. Eastern Washington has a potential for snow showers as well, highest in the eastern portion of the area.

If you don't see any snow in these showers, it'll likely be rain. Below is the European model forecast for total rain through Tuesday.

This forecast shows areas from Seattle south receiving 0.25-0.5" of rain, with a rain shadow from Seattle to Everett (0.1-0.2"). Areas from Everett northward will get 0.4-0.6", with the coast receiving 0.5-1". If areas of Eastern Washington receive rain instead of snow, expect 0.1-0.2".

Finally, I find it interesting to take a look at temperature anomaly forecasts. The forecast below, from the European model, shows temperature anomalies on Monday afternoon.

This forecast shows temperatures on Monday afternoon being 5-10° below average in Western Washington and up to 15° below average in Eastern Washington. This is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future.

One more day of showers is expected on Monday, with a mostly dry Tuesday, and dry conditions from midday Tuesday through Friday afternoon! Stay tuned for more information.