Potential Lowland Snow & Cold Mornings Ahead

 FastCast—Saturday, Mar. 4 to Monday, Mar. 6:

Although it is March, it definitely feels like winter! There is a marginal chance of lowland snow early Saturday morning. Forecasts show that accumulating snow is most likely on the Kitsap Peninsula near Hood Canal, where 1-4” is possible. Outside the Hood Canal Area, anything from a trace to 1” on non-road surfaces is possible, with the highest chance of accumulation in the foothills. Impacts to roads aren’t expected outside the Hood Canal Area/highest Cascade foothills. Showers will continue on Saturday, tapering by late evening. By Sunday morning, temperatures will be quite chilly, with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s in the lowlands. Expect a dry day on Sunday, with dry conditions continuing on Monday. Monday morning’s lows will be in the mid to upper 20s. Expect highs from Saturday to Monday to increase from the low 40s on Saturday to the upper 40s to low 50s by Monday.

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A winter-like start to March continues in the Pacific Northwest. Chilly temperatures and showers on Saturday morning will bring a marginal chance of brief lowland snow, with the highest chances of snow around the Hood Canal Area and the Cascade foothills.

Below is the European model forecast for total snow through 10 AM Saturday.

The European model shows 0.5-1.5” of snow from Everett to Kelso, with 2-4” around Hood Canal, and 0.5-1” on the low elevations of the Olympic Peninsula. Again, to emphasize, it is very hard to get accumulations on the roads in the lowlands, but non-road surfaces can get accumulations in a relatively short time. Another 6-8” is possible at the passes through Saturday morning, mainly falling overnight.

Next, let’s look at the NAM forecast for snow through 10 AM Saturday, seen below.

This forecast shows 2-8” from Sequim to Shelton, with spotty accumulations up to 1” from Everett to Bellingham, from Olympia south, and on the coast. This is a more unlikely forecast, especially the excessive amounts around Hood Canal.

Finally, the UW WRF ultra high-resolution forecast, for snow through 10 AM Saturday.

The UW forecast shows 0.5-2” of snow from Everett south, most in the foothills. It also shows 2-6” around Hood Canal, 1-4” for the Western Olympic Peninsula, and 0.5-1” for the coast. This is quite likely on the high end, and is a definite outlier.

In summary, snow is most likely around Hood Canal, with 1-4” expected. For the rest of the lowlands, a trace to 1” of snow is possible, with impacts not expected on roads. The Cascade foothills have a higher chance of 0.5-2” of snow, with brief accumulations on roads possible, mainly above 700-900 feet elevation.

After showers move out late Saturday, it will get chilly. Below is the European model forecast for Sunday morning’s lows.

The European model shows lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, warmest near the water. Some outlying lowland locations could reach the mid 20s. 

Looking into the extended outlook, below normal temperatures are expected to continue. The NWS Climate Prediction Center outlook for March 9-13 is below.

This outlook shows a 40-60% probability for below average temperatures through mid-March. This is a lower probability than previously forecast, a sign that more seasonable temperatures are slowly approaching. Stay tuned! 

Cold & Active Start to March

FastCast—Thursday, Mar. 2 to Sunday, Mar. 5:

March has begun, and that means the beginning of meteorological spring. However, it won’t feel at all like spring. A system will move through on Thursday, bringing significant mountain snow, with 10-14” at Snoqualmie Pass and up to 2 feet at Stevens & White Passes. This system will also bring gusty winds of 30-40 mph for the lowlands, and stronger (40-50 mph) for areas from Everett northward. In the lowlands, expect 0.2-0.3” of rain, with 1-1.5” on the coast, and 0.5-0.75” from Olympia to Portland. More rain is possible on Friday, with lingering mountain snow showers as well. Conditions turn more uncertain and colder this weekend. Marginal lowland snow chances exist on Saturday, with low temperatures by Sunday morning possibly reaching the low to mid 20s. Stay tuned, as interesting weather keeps on coming!

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An interesting start to March is ahead for Western Washington. One of the biggest threats will be heavy mountain snow from late Wednesday night to Friday evening, mainly showery from midday Thursday onward. The European model forecast for snow is below.

Through Friday evening, expect 12-24” of snow at the passes, most at Stevens (18-24”), with Snoqualmie Pass likely picking up 10-14”. The Coast Mountains of Washington and Oregon will pick up 2-6”, and heavy showers in the lowlands could bring brief rain/snow mix or snow pellets. 

Thursday will also be windy, especially in the North Sound. Below is the European model forecast for peak gusts on Thursday morning.

Expect winds gusting 30-40 mph for the lowlands and 40-50 mph for the North Sound. Winds will likely be strongest Thursday morning.

Rain is also expected at times through Friday evening, as seen in the European model forecast below.

Expect 0.2-0.4” of rain for the lowlands, with 0.5-0.75” from Olympia to Portland, and 1-1.5” on the coast. 

Looking into the extended forecast, a significantly colder than normal start to March is expected. Below is the NWS Climate Prediction Center outlook for temperatures from March 7-11 (next week).

This forecast shows a 70-90% probability of below average temperatures for the Pacific Northwest through the first full week of March.

For a sample of what could potentially be ahead, take a look at the European model’s forecast for Sunday morning lows.

If you believe this forecast, most of the lowlands will have temperatures in the 20s, with many areas away from the water in the low to mid 20s…quite cold for March!

Stay tuned, as colder weather and potential marginal lowland snow are still ahead.

Another Marginal Snow Event for Monday Night & Tuesday

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It has been the tale of this winter...marginal snow event after marginal snow event. Another one is ahead for late Monday night through early Tuesday. Snow will largely depend on the temperature, elevation, and the precipitation rate (heavier precipitation = more snow coming to the surface).

Snow will be most likely early Tuesday morning, approximately from 6-10 AM. Showers late Monday night and on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning could also bring light snow, which is why we will show forecasts below through Wednesday morning.

Let's start with the European model forecast 10 AM Wednesday.

The European model shows a dusting to 1” of snow from Seattle south to Portland. The Kitsap Peninsula, Hood Canal, areas Seattle northward, and around Portland could get 1-4”, most possible near Portland, in the foothills north of I-90, and in Whatcom County. In Eastern Washington, expect up to 4”, most outside the Lower Columbia Basin.

Next, the NAM high-resolution forecast, also through 10 AM Wednesday.

This forecast shows scattered snow, with accumulations of 0.25-3” scattered from Longview northward, most from Seattle to Skagit County. This also shows up to 8” for Eastern Washington, most from the Tri-Cities to Spokane.

Next, the HRRR high-resolution forecast through 10 AM Wednesday.

This forecast shows 1-4” of snow from Olympia southward, including on the coast. This also shows 1-3” from Everett northward, 2-6” around Spokane, and 1-4” on the coast from Hoquiam northward and from Astoria south. This forecast is an outlier.

Finally, the UW WRF ultra-high resolution forecast through 10 AM Wednesday.

This shows 0.5-1.5” from Olympia to Seattle and 2-4” from Seattle northward. This also shows an unlikely 8-16” near the NW tip of WA near Forks, Neah Bay, and Western Clallam County. This forecast is likely an outlier, especially for the NW WA Coast.

Putting this all together in one forecast:

Portland: 1-4”

Portland to Olympia: 0-2”

Olympia to Seattle: 0-1.5”

Seattle to Canadian Border: 1-4” (less near water)

Hood Canal Area/Kitsap Peninsula: 1-4”

Coast from Hoquiam northward: 0-4” (less near the ocean)

It is likely that highs in the low to mid 40s and lows in the low 30s are going to continue for awhile, with more marginal snow chances ahead. Stay tuned!