The “first day of fall” is technically September 22nd, but the first full day of fall is September 23rd (Wednesday). This year, fall will waste no time getting started.
The first storm of the season will impact our area on the first day of fall. The primary impact of this storm will be rain. Our area will receive 0.5-3.0 inches of rain through Saturday. Here is a graphic from NWS Seattle showing what to expect.
This outlines the main points of what’s coming. The heaviest rain and gustiest winds will be on Wednesday. Light rain could start Tuesday night, then increase on Wednesday. More rain and showers will be likely through Saturday.
Here is the UW model showing moisture in the atmosphere on Wednesday at 8 AM.
Reds and blues are high values of moisture. More moisture=more rain. This will be our first storm of the season.
Here is the forecast precipitation between 5 AM Tuesday and 5 AM Thursday.
Expect 0.64-2.56 inches of rain during this time. The most likely outcomes are 0.8-1.5 inches of rain on Wednesday and 0.5-1.0 inches on Thursday. Additional rain on Friday and possibly Saturday is likely. Due to the possibility of high rain rates and subsequently blocked storm drains, urban flooding is possible. Be prepared!
On a broader scope...here is the total precipitation between Monday the 21st and Monday the 28th.
Wow...this will catch us up on rain and give us assurance in the reservoirs. The Puget Sound area gets 1-5 total inches of rain, with up to 5-20 inches in the mountains. It will sure feel like fall!!
Regarding winds...gusts of 20-40 mph are likely between Wednesday and Saturday. There is a chance of power outages since it is still early in the season.
There is also a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday as instability will be present with this weather system. While this is not likely, the window of opportunity is there.
Temperatures will reach the low 60s from Wednesday-Friday, with a highs a bit for the weekend.
The next few days will sure feel like fall!
Thanks for the good info so I can be prepared. I appreciate it!
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