Saturday, September 12, 2020

Smoke & Air Quality Update

The smoke has been incredibly dense across our area today. It limited temperatures by 10-20 degrees and blocked out a significant portion of the sun’s rays. I took this picture from my backyard at 11:30 AM. There’s no edits or enhancements...this is what it looked like. 


Everything had a brownish tint. It was dark most of the day and you didn’t really see the sun. 

Before we look at some numbers...I do have some good news. Some improvement is possible late Sunday, and definitely on Monday. Air quality is a bit better today, but still unhealthy to be outside in. Rain is likely next week, but the amounts and timing aren't certain yet.

Let's take a look at some graphs of how the smoke impacted temperatures and solar radiation today.


Above is temperature (red line) and dewpoint (green line) in Puyallup. Today's high was 64 degrees, compared to 80 yesterday and 96 on Thursday. This shows how much the smoke knocked down the temperature. Notice that the dewpoint didn't stray much from the temperature, indicating that it wasn't very dry. 

Another measurement, possibly even more shocking, is solar radiation. This is the amount of radiation from the sun. It is measured in watts/meter, squared (w/m^2).


From left to right, Tuesday (771, no smoke), Wednesday (725, some smoke), Thursday (711, some smoke), Friday (486, widespread smoke), and Saturday (117, heavy smoke). The contrast between Tuesday and Saturday is huge. A decrease of nearly 600 w/m^2. Saturday was comparable to a dark winter day. 

Now let's look at air quality. Here is Puyallup's 8 PM reading.



This is the worst it's been all day for Puyallup, in the "very unhealthy" category. I expect that the air quality will be a bit worse through the night as the smoke settles. Interesting fact...smoke particles actually let out more temperature during the night, so it could be a cooler night than forecasts indicate. Air quality in the "unhealthy" to "hazardous" category is expected on Sunday, with "unhealthy for sensitive groups" to "unhealthy" on Monday. 

Now for the smoke forecast...these images are from the NOAA HRRR Smoke forecast model for near surface smoke.

Here's 11 PM tonight.


Still thick smoke over Western Washington, and incredibly dense smoke over the eastern parts of WA & OR. 

Here's 11 AM Sunday. 


Smoke is getting thinner over Western Washington, though you might not notice it as much as you think. We will have a marine layer that will keep it cloudy for a bit tomorrow.

Below is 11 PM Sunday.


Major improvement over Western Washington and parts of Western Oregon. Still very thick over Eastern Washington.

One more forecast...11 AM Monday. 


Much better air quality, and hopefully somewhat cleaner air. Maybe we'll get that nasty smoke smell out of the air. 

In short...relief is in sight. However, air quality might take a bit longer to recover. Here is the AQI forecast from Puget Sound Clean Air...on the EPA AirNow App.


There's a chance that even if we get rain, it'll take a few days for air quality to improve. I will put an updated forecast in each blog.

Rain is still in the forecast! Amounts and timing are still not certain...but I will have updates in tomorrow's blog.

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