Tuesday has been a very rainy day, with 1-2.5 inches of rain across the Puget Sound area, bringing January to 5-8 inches total. Tuesday has also been quite balmy, with the subtropical air of the atmospheric river bringing temperatures of 52-58 degrees.
We're not out of the woods yet. A windstorm is likely overnight, and a Wind Advisory (posted below) has been issued from 10 PM Tuesday to 6 AM Wednesday.
Expect peak winds gusting 40-50 mph in the Puget Sound area.
Typically, this storm wouldn't be too out-of-the-ordinary for us. However, with the large amounts of rain in the past few weeks and particularly the last few days, the ground is very saturated, and there is a higher possibility of tree damage and power outages.
The graphic below from AccuWeather shows the dangers of saturated soil.
Saturated soil will be a big factor in the impacts of this windstorm. Below is the blend of 4 forecast models for Puyallup.
You probably see the 60 mph gust being forecast by one of the models. While winds that strong aren't likely, but be prepared for the small chance that winds will gust above 50 mph.
Expect peak winds between 11 PM Tuesday and 6 AM Wednesday.
I'm sure that most everyone is done with rain by now, but we have a few more hours of rain until a break of more than 24 hours!
The UW Model below shows an additional 0.3-1.2 inches of rain through 4 PM Wednesday. This will contribute to the ongoing river, urban, and small stream flooding in Western Washington.
Our 24-hour rain totals ending 9:25 PM Tuesday are below. Let's just say it's been pretty wet.
All of this rain, and the large amounts (7-12 inches) of rain since late December has pushed soil moisture (and the landslide threat) to high levels.
The antecedent water index is a measure of the landslide threat. A reading of 0.02 is categorized as "wet" conditions. Currently, area readings are 0.03-0.07, quite wet!
How to read this: Colored lines (key at bottom) are the Index readings. The yellow shaded area is the forecast. The graph runs from 12/29 to 1/14. The black line around 0.02 is the measurement of "wet" which is typically an increased landslide threat. As you can see, we are quite above that mark currently.
In short: there is a high threat of landslides in Western Washington, something that will continue for the next few days.
Snow levels in the mountains have risen over 5,000 feet, and there is a danger of avalanches due to heavy rain. Be safe if you're in the backcountry.
Also, another round of tidal overflow (0.5-1 foot) is likely Wednesday morning.
Blog Recap:
- Winds gusting 40-50 mph (locally higher) are expected from 10 PM Tuesday to 6 AM Wednesday
- Highly saturated soils will present a higher than normal threat of tree damage and power outages
- An additional 0.3-0.6 inches of rain is possible through midday Wednesday (locally higher amounts possible)
- A high landslide threat remains through the next few days
- Mountain avalanche danger and minor tidal overflow is also likely on Wednesday
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