Wednesday, August 17, 2022

Wednesday Night Aurora Forecast: Cloud Cover Expected

No FastCast tonight...for updated forecasts, check weather.gov and enter your location.

There is chatter about a solar storm that could make it possible to view the Northern Lights from parts of Washington State late Wednesday night to early Thursday morning. However, as usual with celestial events in the Pacific Northwest, it all hinges on cloud cover. 

Below is the cloud cover forecast at 11 PM from the high-resolution NAM model.


This forecast is good news for aurora-watchers! The NAM suggests minimal cloud cover north of Tacoma and nearly none in Eastern Washington, except near Cle Elum and Ellensburg.

However, a forecast is not good unless it is from multiple sources. The latest cloud cover forecast from the HRRR high-resolution forecast for cloud cover at 11 PM is below.


The HRRR forecast seems to be more aligned with reality. The HRRR shows cloud cover across all of Western Washington except areas near Mount Vernon and north of Bellingham. Eastern Washington will have cloud cover on a line from the Tri Cities and Moses Lake westward.

GOES NOAA satellite imagery is below, and it seems to be trending closer to the HRRR forecast.


Notice all the clouds moving north into Washington. Those will likely obscure the view of the aurora for most of Western Washington and parts of Eastern Washington.

For more aurora information, check out the links below:

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