Friday, September 8, 2023

Warm Weekend & Above Average Extended Forecast

 FastCast—Saturday, Sep. 9 to Tuesday, Sep. 12:

A warm weekend is expected for the Pacific Northwest, with above average extended forecast likely. In the lowlands, expect a sunny Saturday, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, hottest in the foothills and from Seattle southward. Clouds will increase on Sunday, with highs cooling to the mid to upper 70s. With a system moving in, temperatures will drop with overcast conditions on Monday. Highs will drop to the upper 60s to low 70s for Monday and Tuesday, although clouds will decrease on Tuesday afternoon. Low temperatures through Tuesday will remain in the mid 50s, except in the upper 50s on Monday morning. Above average temperatures look to continue through the upcoming week.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

A warm weekend is ahead for the Pacific Northwest, with slight cooling into next week, and above average temperatures (with below average precipitation) are likely over the next 6-10 days. Let’s take a look at the forecast!

Below is the European model forecast for highs on Saturday.


Expect lowland highs to reach the mid 70s to mid 80s, hottest from Seattle south. The coast will reach the upper 60s to mid 70s, the Willamette Valley will reach the mid to upper 80s, and Eastern Washington will reach the upper 70s to low 90s.

The GFS (American) forecast for Saturday shows a hotter solution for the lowlands, mirroring last weekend.


This forecast shows lowland highs from Seattle south in the low to mid 80s, with Seattle north in the mid 70s. This is a hotter forecast for the coast as well, with highs reaching the low to mid 70s (cooler at the beaches). The Willamette Valley will reach the mid to upper 80s, and Eastern Washington will reach the low 80s to low 90s.

With a system moving closer on Sunday, clouds will increase in Western Washington, bringing some cooling. Below is the European model forecast for Sunday.


Expect lowland highs in the mid to upper 70s, with isolated low 80s in the foothills. The coast will drop to the mid to upper 60s (cooler on the beaches) and the Willamette Valley will drop to the upper 70s to low 80s. Eastern Washington will get warmer, with highs increasing to the mid 80s to mid 90s.

Let’s compare Sunday’s forecast to the GFS model, seen below.


The GFS shows a slightly warmer solution, with the lowlands and Willamette Valley reaching the upper 70s to low 80s, the coast reaching the upper 60s (cooler at the beaches), and Eastern Washington reaching the mid 80s to low 90s. 

Temperatures will cool on Monday and Tuesday, dropping to the low 70s in the lowlands.

Now, we’ll look at the extended forecast for Seattle and Tri Cities from the European model ensemble (EPS). The Seattle forecast is below.


Notice that temperatures will remain in the 70s through the next 2 weeks. You can tell on this plot that highs and lows are above average by looking at the solid red and blue lines, and noting that temperatures are remaining above those lines.

A similar trend is expected for the Tri Cities, though temperatures will be noticeably hotter than Seattle.


Notice that for Seattle and the Tri Cities, next weekend looks warmer. In the Tri Cities, highs will remain in the mid 80s to low 90s for the foreseeable future, well above average.

Enjoy the nice weather and a warm weekend!

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