Sunday, November 5, 2023

Rainy at Times Through Tuesday, Drier by Midweek

FastCast--Monday, Nov. 6 to Thursday, Nov. 9:

The next storm is impacting Western Washington with rain at times through Monday, transitioning to isolated showers on Tuesday, with a potential Convergence Zone over the Central Sound in the afternoon. Across the lowlands, expect 0.5-1", with isolated higher amounts possible due to heavier showers. Rain should wrap up completely by Tuesday night. Expect partly sunny conditions on Wednesday, followed by increasing clouds on Thursday as systems return. Details on those systems are uncertain, so stay tuned on that. Temperature-wise, expect highs in the mid to upper 50s on Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Wednesday and Thursday will reach the low to mid 50s, with Wednesday's lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, and Thursday's lows in the low to mid 30s, with some sub-freezing temperatures and frost possible.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

The next storm system is moving through Western Washington, bringing another round of rain to the area. Rain should clear out by Tuesday night, with drier weather on Wednesday and most of Thursday. Let's take a look at the forecast!

First, the European model forecast for rain through Tuesday evening. 


This forecast runs a bit wetter than the rest of the forecasts, showing 0.5-1.5" of rain for the lowlands. This forecast also shows 0.9-1.4" for the Willamette Valley, 0.5-3" on the coast (most along the Oregon Coast), and 1-3" in the mountains. This forecast also brings 0.3-0.8" to Eastern Washington, with the most rain around Spokane and Pullman (0.6-0.8").

Next, let's take a look at the GFS (American) model for rain through Tuesday evening.


This forecast shows 0.5-1" for the lowlands, most in a Convergence Zone between Seattle and Everett. This forecast also brings 0.7-1.3" to the coast, 1.4-2" to the Willamette Valley, and 2-3" to the mountains. This shows significantly less rain for Eastern Washington, except around Spokane and Pullman (0.5-0.75").

Next, let's take a look at the NAM high-resolution forecast for rain through Tuesday evening.


This forecast shows 0.3-0.8" for the lowlands, with isolated higher amounts from Seattle to Mount Vernon. This forecast also shows 0.5-2.5" on the coast, 0.8-1.5" in the Willamette Valley, 2-4" in the mountains, and 0.1-0.2" in Eastern WA, except more (0.5-0.8") around Pullman and Walla Walla.

Finally, let's take a look at the UW WRF high-resolution forecast for rain through Tuesday evening, zoomed in on the Seattle area.


This forecast shows 0.5-1.25" for the lowlands and the coast, with less in the Olympic rain shadow, and 1.5-3" in the mountains.

As the rain moves through, the snow level will drop from around 5,500-6,000 feet to 3,500 to 4,000 feet, bringing a few inches of wet snow to the higher passes. Below is the European model forecast for snow through Tuesday night.


The European model shows 2-4" at the passes (most at Stevens and White Passes), with around 1-1.5" at Snoqualmie Pass. Higher elevations such as Paradise, the North Cascades Highway, and Chinook-Cayuse Passes will get up to 6-8".

Finally, let's take a look at upcoming temperatures for Seattle and Spokane from the European EPS forecast. First, Seattle.


Temperatures will slowly decline over the next few days, with highs and lows remaining near average, except a chilly morning on Thursday.

Next, the forecast for Spokane.


Spokane will generally follow a similar pattern as Seattle, just with cooler temperatures. Highs and lows look to remain near average for the foreseeable future, with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the low to mid 30s.

Stay tuned over the next few days for more information on the upcoming systems at the end of the week.

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