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July 4th is known as one of the most dangerous days of the year for fires. The same can be said in 2024 across the Pacific Northwest. A combination of warm temperatures, low humidity, and areas of breezy winds will create dangerous fire conditions due to fireworks.
Please refrain from using fireworks, if possible. It is much better to protect yourself and those around you by staying safe and not using fireworks. Additionally, fireworks are illegal across most of the Seattle metro area. The FOX 13 Seattle article below has more details about where fireworks are illegal:
Where are fireworks illegal in Washington state? (FOX 13 Seattle)
Now, let's take a look at the forecast. First, the forecast for high temperatures on the Fourth, from the NWS NBM model.
Expect highs to reach the upper 70s to low 80s for the lowlands (mid 80s from Olympia south), with the North Sound remaining in the low to mid 70s. The coast will be quite pleasant, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The Willamette Valley will be hot, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Eastern Washington will also be hot, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Fire conditions will be made worse due to the expected low humidity. Below is the European model forecast for humidity in the evening.
Around dinnertime, humidity will be in the 25-40% range from Seattle south, 40-55% from Seattle north, and 15-20% in the Willamette Valley. Eastern Washington will be incredibly dry, with humidity of 5-20%. This is why it is so important to not light off fireworks. If you leave it to the professionals, there's a lesser risk of fires starting, especially in these extremely dry conditions.
There is another significant aspect to conditions on July 4th (and early on the 5th), and that is air quality. Below is the European model forecast for winds at 12 AM on July 5th.
Notice that winds across nearly the entirety of Western Washington are 0-10 mph. This is not enough to mix out the huge amount of firework smoke that is injected into the atmosphere on the Fourth.
Below is a screenshot of an air quality map from 11 PM on July 4th, 2023.
Air quality across most of Western Washington was terrible, especially in the metro area, with "unhealthy" to "hazardous" readings. Even areas removed from the metro, like the San Juan Islands, had moderate AQI.
This influx of very bad air quality is why sleeping with the windows open after the fireworks is not a good idea. Unfortunately, with Seattle being one of the least air-conditioned metro areas in the US, this isn't possible. Yet another reason why it's a good idea to not light off fireworks!
Now, let's take a look at the forecast for the upcoming significant heat wave. Below is the upper-air forecast showing the huge high pressure ridge that will cause the heat wave.
Notice the huge ridge of high pressure dominating the West Coast. This ridge will bring a major heat wave to the entire region through most of next week.
Let's take a look at temperatures. Below is the forecast for Friday.
On Friday, expect highs from Seattle north to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s, and highs from Seattle south to reach the mid 80s to low 90s. The coast will reach the mid 70s to low 80s, and the Willamette Valley will be scorching, in the upper 90s to low 100s. Eastern Washington will reach the low 90s to low 100s.
Saturday will be even hotter across the region as the ridge moves closer to Washington. Below is the NWS NBM forecast.
On Saturday, areas from Seattle north will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s, and areas from Seattle south will reach the upper 80s to mid 90s. The coast will reach the mid 70s to low 80s, the Willamette Valley will reach the low 100s (isolated mid 100s possible), and Eastern Washington will reach the low 90s to low 100s.
Sunday will likely be the hottest day across the lowlands, while heat will continue building to the east of the Cascades. Below is the NWS NBM forecast for highs on Sunday.
Heat will be intense on Sunday. Expect areas from Seattle north to reach the mid to upper 80s, while areas from Seattle to Olympia will reach the low to mid 90s. From Olympia to Portland, temperatures will reach the upper 90s. The Willamette Valley will reach the low to mid 100s, and the coast will reach the low 70s to low 80s. Eastern Washington will reach the mid 90s to mid 100s.
This heat wave will continue into next week, with multiple hot days expected beyond Sunday. Stay tuned over the next few days as we get closer to the heat wave, and stay safe this Fourth!
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