Cool and Dry Thanksgiving Day & Holiday Weekend

FastCast—Thursday, Nov. 23 to Monday, Nov. 27:

A cool, dry, and mostly sunny Thanksgiving and holiday weekend lies ahead for the Pacific Northwest. In the lowlands, expect morning clouds and afternoon sun on Thanksgiving, with highs in the mid 40s. Temperatures will drop by early Friday morning, with morning lows dropping to the mid 20s to low 30s in the lowlands for Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 40s, under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be even colder in Eastern Washington, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the low 20s to low 30s. 

———————————————————

Continue reading the full blog below!

A cool, dry, and mostly sunny holiday weekend is ahead for the Pacific Northwest! Let’s take a look at the forecast, starting with highs on Thanksgiving, from the European model.

Expect Thanksgivng highs in Western Washington to reach the mid 40s, with the low to mid 40s likely in Eastern Washington.

Now for low temperatures. It’ll be quite chilly for the next few nights/mornings. Let’s take a look at the forecast, starting with lows on Friday morning (European model forecast).

In the lowlands, expect lows in the mid 20s to low 30s, coldest east of I-5. Eastern Washington will drop to the low 20s to low 30s, with the Willamette Valley and the coast reaching the low 30s.

Next, lows on Saturday morning, seen below.

On Saturday morning, expect lowland lows in the mid to upper 20s, with the coast dropping to the upper 20s to low 30s, and the Willamette Valley reaching the upper 20s to low 30s. Eastern Washington will be quite chilly, with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Finally, the lows for Sunday morning, seen below.

Sunday morning will be quite similar to Saturday, with lowland and coastal lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, Willamette Valley lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and Eastern Washington’s lows in the low 20s to low 30s. 

We’ll round out this blog with the rain forecast through Sunday night, seen below, from the European model.

Expect virtually no rain for most of Washington state, with a few areas of isolated drizzle possible early Thursday for the southern tier of the state.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving, and enjoy the sun (and stay warm)!

Brief Rain, Then Cooler & Drier for Thanksgiving

FastCast—Tuesday, Nov. 21 to Friday, Nov. 24:

The next system is expected to move into the region late Tuesday, with rain lasting through early Wednesday. For the lowlands, expect 0.3-0.6” of rain through early Wednesday morning. Then, conditions will dry out and cool down, with a dry Thanksgiving expected. Temperatures will be a bit interesting. On Tuesday, expect lowland highs to reach the low to mid 50s due to southeasterly flow. Rain will move through from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday. On Wednesday, temperatures will reach the upper 40s, with clouds decreasing by evening. Thanksgiving will bring morning clouds and afternoon sun, with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Friday will likely be mostly sunny, with highs in the mid to upper 40s. Low temperatures will reach the mid 30s on Tuesday morning, the low to mid 40s on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, and down to the low to mid 30s on Friday morning.

———————————————————

Continue reading the full blog below!

The next system is ahead for Western Washington, bringing one final round of rain before Thanksgiving. Let’s take a look at the forecast.

Below is the rain forecast from the European model.

The European model shows 0.3-0.6” for the lowlands, 0.6-0.9” for the coast, and 0-0.1” for Eastern Washington. Most rain will wrap up by early Wednesday morning.

Let’s compare this to the NAM high-resolution forecast, showing rain through Wednesday.

The NAM high-resolution model shows 0.3-0.5” for the lowlands, with 0.5-0.9” on the coast, and scattered areas of a trace of rain for Eastern Washington.

Tuesday will be an anomalously warm day for the lowlands. Below is the European model forecast, zoomed in to Western Washington.

Expect lowland highs to reach the mid 50s, with some areas (mainly near the foothills) reaching the upper 50s, due to downslope flow. 

Let’s take a look at the extended forecasts from the European Ensemble (EPS) forecasts, from Seattle and Spokane. 

First, the EPS Seattle forecast.

Aside from Tuesday, notice that temperatures will remain on the cooler side, with highs in the mid 40s through the end of November. Lows will cool for Friday to Monday, dropping to the upper 20s to low 30s around the lowlands.

Let’s compare this to Spokane’s forecast from the European EPS model.

In Spokane, temperatures will remain in the upper 30s to low 40s, with overnight lows on the cold side, especially from Thanksgiving to early next week. Some mornings may get as cold as the low 20s!

Enjoy the relatively calm and normal weather ahead!

Next Storm Ahead: Wind, Rain, and Mountain Snow Likely

FastCast—Saturday, Nov. 18 to Thursday, Nov. 23:

After a calm and sunny few days, the next storm is ahead. Rain and wind will increase late Saturday evening and into the night, with winds peaking Sunday morning. The best chance of rain is from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Wind-wise, expect gusts of 45-55 mph (locally up to 60 mph) on the coast, 40-55 mph for Whidbey Island due to a westerly wind surge, and 35-45 mph in the lowlands, strongest near the water. Some tree damage and power outages are possible. Across the lowlands, expect 0.3-0.5” of rain, with isolated areas getting up to 0.75”. The passes will get up to 3-5” of snow, with a trace to 3” at Snoqualmie Pass. Through Thanksgiving Day, expect highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. There is a chance of showers on Tuesday and Wednesday, but otherwise, it will be partly sunny and relatively calm.

—————————————————————

Continue reading the full blog below!

The next storm will bring wind, rain, and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Let’s start by taking a look at the wind forecast, starting with the HRRR model. This forecast is the most aggressive for wind speeds in this storm.

This forecast shows winds gusting 35-40 mph in the lowlands (isolated stronger gusts near the water). Additionally, notice a strong westerly wind surge impacting the entire Strait region, Whidbey Island, the Admiralty Inlet area, and western Snohomish and Skagit Counties, with gusts of 45-55 mph. This storm will also bring gusts of 45-55 mph to the coast.

Next, let’s take a look at the NAM high-resolution forecast, showing wind gusts first at 4 AM Sunday.

At 4 AM Sunday, this forecast shows gusts of 35-40 mph for most of Western Washington, except 45-50 mph on the coast.

Next is the NAM forecast for wind gusts at 9 AM Sunday.

Notice the NAM also shows a westerly wind surge, though noticeably less strong than the HRRR. This forecast shows winds gusting 40-45 mph, mainly confined to Whidbey Island and areas along the Strait.

Next, let’s take a look at the rain forecast, seen below on the European model.

The European model shows 0.2-0.5” of rain in the lowlands with this system, with isolated areas getting 0.6-0.75”. The coast will get 0.6-1.1”, with 0.75-1.5” in the mountains. 

Finally, let’s take a look at the mountain snow forecast, also from the European model.

This forecast shows 3-6” at the passes, with higher amounts (up to 8”) at Stevens and White Passes, and up to 12-18” at Paradise and Mount Baker. Snoqualmie Pass will likely get 1-3” of snow out of this storm due to the snow level being close to 3,000 feet.

After this storm, benign weather is expected all the way through Thanksgiving.