For the first (and likely not the last) time this summer, smoke has arrived in Western Washington. It was visible all day, giving an orange tint to the sunlight and clouding the sky. Below is tonight’s sunset viewed from my house in Federal Way.
And here is the HRRR-Smoke forecast for Sunday evening. Red colors mean relatively dense smoke aloft.
Notice the plume of smoke moving north from Northern California. This pattern will be a major player in keeping us smoky for the next few days, as multiple smoke plumes will move north and send smoke into Western Washington.
By 8 AM Monday, the aforementioned smoke plume is overhead, keeping us under dense smoke aloft.
This smoke will likely get worse through the day Monday. Below is 5 PM Monday. Relatively dense smoke aloft continues to fill the skies.
Forecasts indicate that through the day Monday, smoke concentrations near the surface will increase. Below is the Seattle area smoke cross-section for 5 PM Monday.
Notice the denser smoke concentrations in between the mountains (Olympics on left, Cascades on right). That is the denser surface smoke for the Puget Sound area.
Air quality will likely be somewhat degraded should this verify. You can check the air quality index (AQI) for your location by clicking the link below and typing in your city:
(Also try the EPA AirNow app on iOS and Android devices)
After a couple cooler days (relative to the previous warm stretch), a few more hot days are likely before a big change comes with the next system. Below is the Weather Underground forecast for Federal Way.
Hot temperatures of 86-88 degrees are in the forecast for Monday through Wednesday. However, smoke will likely knock a couple degrees off these highs. We’ve seen in the past that smoke can do a number on high temperatures, such as cooling temperatures by 20-25 degrees today in Eastern Washington. Expect nighttime lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. A significant drop in temperatures arrives by Thursday (keep reading for details).
Bottom line for smoke: Hazy skies and potential surface smoke will likely continue until a system moves in late Thursday, bringing showers to the area and likely scouring out the smoke. I will continue giving updated smoke forecasts while smoke is impacting Western Washington.
A weather system coming in off the Pacific Ocean late on Thursday will bring a chance of showers to the region from Thursday night through Saturday. It’ll be accompanied by cooler weather (highs of 65-75 degrees) and cloudy skies.
Below is the UW forecast for rain from Thursday evening to Sunday evening.
Wow. If this verifies, the Puget Sound area will break the dry spell in very convincing fashion, with 0.3-1.0 inches of rain. The Cascades and Eastern WA get 1-3 inches in this scenario. Some forecasts (such as the Euro model and Weather Underground above) are less certain, forecasting around 0.15-0.3 inches for the lowlands and 0.3-1 inch for the mountains.
The rain forecast is a wait-and-see scenario. As we get nearer to Thursday and Friday, details about how much rain and where it’ll fall will become more clear. Stay tuned!
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