Heavy Snow, Gusty Winds, and Lowland Rain Ahead

 FastCast--Sunday, Feb. 25 to Monday, Feb. 26:

The first storm of the more active weather pattern is slated to impact the region from Sunday to Monday. For the lowlands, expect gusty winds (30-40 mph, strongest near the water), with the strongest winds gusting 40-50 mph from Everett to Mount Vernon and especially around Admiralty Inlet. The lowlands will receive 0.25-0.75" of rain, with a rain shadow giving less rain (0.1-0.2") from Everett to Seattle. In the mountains, expect significant snow through Monday, with the passes receiving 1-2 feet of snow, except up to 3 feet at Stevens Pass. Travel will be quite difficult, although rain will not change to snow at Snoqualmie Pass until Sunday evening, lessening totals around the summit. Stay tuned for another update Sunday evening, as an uncertain forecast for potential localized lowland snow is ahead for Monday.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

A significant mountain snowstorm is ahead, in addition to gusty winds and another round of rain. 

Let's take a look at the snow forecast, starting with the high-resolution NAM forecast for total snow through early Monday morning.

This forecast shows 1-2 feet of snow at the passes, with up to 3 feet at Stevens Pass. This snow, in addition to gusty winds, will create dangerous conditions at times across the passes. One thing to note is that Snoqualmie Pass will likely be all rain until Sunday night, potentially lessening totals there. 

Let's compare this to the HRRR high-resolution forecast, also showing snow through early Monday morning.

This forecast agrees with 1-2 feet at the passes, and up to 3 feet at Stevens Pass. With this forecast and the NAM high-resolution forecast, there is a potential for lowland snow early Monday. Stay tuned for an update on Sunday night regarding this potential.

Next, let's take a look at the wind forecast, starting with the NAM high-resolution forecast.

This forecast shows gusts of 30-40 mph from Everett southward and on the coast. A westerly surge down the Strait of Juan de Fuca will extend down Admiralty Inlet, bringing gusts of 40-50 mph to Island County and western Snohomish County. Eastern Washington will have widespread gusts of 40-50 mph. Additionally, note the gusts of 45-60 mph in the Cascades and along ridgetops, which will create blowing snow at times, and potentially dangerous travel conditions on the passes.

Let's compare this to the HRRR forecast, also showing wind gusts.

This forecast has stronger winds, with the lowlands and coast gusting 35-40 mph, and areas from Edmonds northward gusting 40-45 mph. Island, eastern Jefferson, and western Snohomish Counties will gust 45-55 mph in this forecast, which could potentially cause impacts on Southern Whidbey Island and from Everett to Arlington. The passes and other locations in the Cascades hit 45-50 mph in this forecast, with backcountry ridgetops gusting 60-70 mph (luckily, no one should be out there!). Eastern Washington hits 45-50 mph, except up to 55 mph around the Palouse.

Finally, let's take a look at the total rain forecast through Monday morning, from the European model.

Expect 0.1-0.2" from Seattle to Everett, east to Bremerton, and north to Sequim. From Tacoma south, expect 0.3-0.6" of rain, with 0.7-1.2" from Everett northward and on the coast.

Stay tuned for an update on Sunday night regarding the potential localized lowland snow forecast for Monday, and stay safe out there!