Next System Bringing Rain and Mountain Snow to the Northwest

FastCast—Sunday, Feb. 11 to Wednesday, Feb. 14:

After a calm and uneventful week, the next weather system is ahead for the Northwest. Expect rain to begin on Saturday night, continuing through Sunday, before becoming showery on Monday and Tuesday. The lowlands will likely pick up 0.4-0.8”, with isolated areas of higher rain totals. Snow levels will be around 4,000 feet through Sunday, bringing 6-10” of snow to White and Stevens Passes, and with snow levels dropping to 3,000 feet by Monday, Snoqualmie Pass will likely pick up 3-6” of new snow. It will also be breezy on Sunday and Monday, with winds gusting 25-35 mph across the area, except up to 40 mph around Whidbey Island. By Tuesday, conditions dry out and clear up, with partly sunny skies and no rain expected. From Sunday to Tuesday, expect highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Cooler conditions are expected from Tuesday onward, with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the low to mid 30s. Stay tuned for updates!

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Continue reading the full blog below!

Precipitation is returning to the Northwest after a calm and mostly dry week. Let’s take a look at the forecast!

First, here’s the European model precipitation forecast through Tuesday.

This forecast shows 0.5-1” for the lowlands and the coast, with a rain shadow NE of the Olympic Peninsula. Eastern Washington gets a trace to 0.2” of rain. 

Let’s compare this to the GFS forecast, also showing total rain through Tuesday.

This forecast shows 0.4-0.5” for the lowlands, with 0.5-0.8” from Skagit County northward. This also shows 0.4-0.5” for the southern coast, and 0.6-1.25” from Ocean Shores northward. Eastern Washington (except around Spokane and along the Idaho border) is much drier in this forecast.

Next, let’s take a look at the European model forecast for total snow through Tuesday. Snow levels will start out around 4,000 feet on Sunday, falling to 3,000 feet by Monday.

Expect 4-6” of snow at the passes in this forecast, with higher totals for Paradise, Crystal Mountain, and Mount Baker (6-16”). Parts of Eastern WA, mainly I-90 northward, will get a dusting to 1” of snow, with up to 3” for the northern mountains.

Let’s compare this to the GFS forecast, also showing total snow through Tuesday.

This forecast shows 4-6” at Snoqualmie Pass and 7-10” at the higher passes, with up to 3” around Spokane, and a dusting to 1” for most areas north of I-90. Since the GFS has lower resolution than the European model, this forecast is less likely to occur.

Finally, a breezy period is likely from Sunday to Monday morning. Below is the European model forecast showing peak gusts (zoomed in to Western WA).

The European model shows winds gusting 30-40 mph on the coast and around Everett and Whidbey Island, with gusts up to 30 mph for the rest of the region. 

Let’s compare this to the HRRR high-resolution forecast, which shows a windier scenario (which is generally less likely but still possible).

This forecast shows winds for most of the lowlands gusting 35-45 mph, strongest near the water. The coast will get similar gusts in this scenario. Again, while unlikely, this is still possible.

Stay tuned over the next few days as uncertainty remains regarding the weather over the next week!