Rain Continues, Update on Snowpack & Extended Forecast

FastCast--Tuesday, Feb. 20 to Friday, Feb. 23:

As a system swirls offshore of the Pacific Northwest, multiple rounds of precipitation will move through the region. Expect showers at times from Tuesday to Wednesday, bringing 0.4-0.8" of rain to the lowlands, with isolated higher amounts. The mountain passes will only receive 2-4" of snow with this system. On Tuesday and Wednesday, expect temperatures in the mid 50s (Tuesday) and upper 40s to low 50s (Wednesday). On Thursday and Friday, conditions will dry out, and temperatures will increase, with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s. Through the entire week, lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. A pattern change to colder, wetter, and more active weather is possible by early next week, so stay tuned for more information.

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Continue reading the full blog below!

Multiple rounds of rain are likely for the Northwest as a system that has brought active weather to California swirls off the Northwest coast. Let's take a look at the forecast!

Below is the European model forecast for total rain through late Wednesday.

This forecast shows 0.5-0.9" of rain for the lowlands, with isolated areas getting up to 1". The coast gets 0.7-1.25" in this forecast, with scattered totals of 0.1-0.4" across Eastern Washington.

Let's compare this to the high-resolution NAM forecast, seen below, also showing total rain through late Wednesday.

This forecast shows 0.3-0.6" of rain for the lowlands, with isolated areas getting up to 0.8-1". The coast would get 0.4-0.9", most on the central coast. This forecast also shows some rain in Eastern Washington, mainly 0.1-0.3" near the Cascades and north of I-90.

Next, let's take a look at the somewhat lackluster snow forecast with this system, seen below on the European model.

This forecast shows only 1-4" of total snow for the passes, with higher elevations such as Paradise and Mount Baker only getting 5-10" additional snow. 

This is not great news for the below-average snowpack across the Cascades and Olympics. Below is the Washington snowpack data from the USDA NRCS site, as of February 16th.

Snowpack in the Cascades sits at 45-80% of normal, while the Olympics are only at around 30% of normal. 

These snowpack numbers are not very good, and it would be concerning to see numbers like this continue into spring. However, we may see positive change in snowpack with a potential pattern change ahead. 

Let's take a look at the extended outlooks from the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the final week of February.

First, the temperature outlook.

This outlook shows the Central and Eastern US being dominated by significant warmth, while the Northwest has a 40-50% probability of below average temperatures to end February.

Now, let's take a look at the CPC precipitation outlook.

Paired with potential below-average temperatures, this is a great signal. This outlook shows a 50-60% probability of above average precipitation for the Northwest through the end of February. 

Stay tuned for more information on the upcoming pattern change (and some potential warmer days near the end of this week)!