Update: Gap Winds and Marginal Snow Potential

No FastCast tonight...below is an update on the snow and gap wind situation. 

As of 10:30 PM, there have been reports of rain/snow mix from Federal Way to Olympia, with snow falling on the Kitsap Peninsula, on SR-8 west of Olympia, and even some flakes near Westport due to heavy precipitation rates. Let's take a look at the snow forecast!

Below is the high-resolution NAM forecast, showing total snow through Thursday.

This forecast shows a dusting to 0.5" of snow for Olympia and areas from Everett to Bellingham, plus the coast from Grays Harbor County northward. The Kitsap Peninsula, Hood Canal area, and Shelton area could get 1.5-3" of snow, with isolated higher amounts possible. 

Let's compare this to the HRRR forecast, which shows even more snow.

This forecast shows no snow north of Olympia for the I-5 corridor, but shows 1-2" from Chehalis to Olympia, and 4-6" for the Kitsap Peninsula, Shelton, and Hood Canal, with isolated totals of 6-8" on the higher hills of the Kitsap Peninsula. This forecast also shows up to 1" of snow around Grays Harbor. 

Both forecasts are possible, and there is still a chance that areas along the I-5 corridor and north of Everett receive snow overnight and into the morning. The tricky thing is how marginal temperatures are with this event. Snow is most likely on higher hills, away from the water, and in areas not exposed to gusty east winds.

Speaking of gusty easterly gap winds, let's take a look at the high-resolution forecasts for winds. Below is the NAM high-resolution forecast for peak winds through Thursday.

This forecast shows gap winds gusting up to 50 mph for North Bend, Enumclaw, Gold Bar, and the coast, where offshore winds could reach 50 mph, especially around Grays Harbor. Lowland areas from the King/Pierce County line northward to Seattle, and from Everett to Arlington, could be impacted by easterly winds gusting up to 40 mph, peaking early Thursday morning. The areas between I-5 and the Cascades, from Seattle to Tacoma, could gust up to 45 mph.

Let's compare this to the HRRR forecast, seen below.

This forecast is a bit more tame for winds, with the gaps, coast, and lowland areas from Tacoma to Seattle gusting 35-40 mph, except up to 45-50 mph near North Bend, Enumclaw, and Gold Bar. 

Either forecast is possible, with the most likely scenario being between the two. 

Be prepared for winter weather impacts if you are on the Kitsap Peninsula, around Hood Canal, and around Shelton. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for those areas through Thursday morning for up to 6" of snow. Stay safe out there!