Chance of Thunderstorms on Tuesday, Warmup Ahead

The subtropical atmospheric river has certainly delivered, bringing both muggy air and impressive June precipitation totals. Below is total rain from Friday morning to Monday evening.

Wow…totals ranged from 1.1 to 1.7 inches around the Central Sound and upwards of 2 inches near Olympia.

Anywhere that received more than 1.5 inches got the entire month’s total in 4 days! This week’s US Drought Monitor maps should reflect a reduction in drought coverage due to this heavy rain. 

Looking ahead to Tuesday, instability will set up a 30-50% chance of thunderstorms from 11 AM to 5 PM in the Lowlands. Below is the NWS high resolution forecast model showing CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), or instability, on Tuesday.

(HRRR Rapid Refresh Model courtesy of Weathernerds.org)

CAPE values of 300-550 are expected on Tuesday. These are decent for the Pacific Northwest, and support a chance of thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.

The biggest hazards are lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain. Remember, “when thunder roars, go indoors!” Not all showers will have thunder & lightning, but be prepared for a thunderstorm.

Now for a look ahead…below is the Puyallup forecast from Weather Underground.

Expect the last rain for the foreseeable future on Tuesday. Sunnier weather moves in for awhile beginning on Wednesday. Temperatures warm to the lower to mid 70s on Wednesday, and we will also experience cooler low temperatures…in the upper 40s to low 50s through Friday, a relief from the recent warm nights. 

Thursday brings warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s. By Friday, temperatures will likely reach 80 degrees. Highs of 80 to 85 degrees are likely through the start of next week, with the possibility of a couple days of 85 to 90 degree temperatures. Stay tuned!

While we will have warmer temperatures, our “warmer” weather is nothing compared to most of the rest of the Western US. Below is the Euro model forecast for the Western US on Tuesday. 

Washington and Oregon are the coldest states in the area…and the only two that escape the 85 to 125 degree highs across the rest of the West. (Including 105+ degrees in Montana of all places). This extreme heat across the West will continue through the rest of the week, especially in the Desert Southwest.