No FastCast tonight...continue reading the update below!
After a strong thunderstorm moved across Vashon Island and the Kitsap Peninsula on Wednesday evening, producing over 500 lightning strikes (includes cloud-to-cloud strikes). Lightning was visible from Tacoma to Oak Harbor, and cloud tops reached 40,000 feet!!
More thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across Western Washington, with the highest potential from Tacoma southward.
Below is the NAM high-resolution forecast showing simulated satellite imagery at 2 AM Thursday.
The NAM shows a thunderstorm complex over Western Washington at this time. However, other forecasts either don't show this or show a smaller version covering a lesser area.
Below is the UW forecast for simulated satellite imagery at 7 AM Thursday.
The UW forecast shows what is the most likely situation, with areas of thunderstorms moving from SE to NW across SW Washington.
However, there is a possibility for thunderstorms to move further north into the metro area, considering it is quite hard for models to pick up thunderstorms around here. Despite the uncertainty of prediction, there will be ample instability (CAPE) around the region.
The UW forecast at 2 AM Thursday shows high CAPE values of 600-1200 for parts of Western WA & Central WA. Although, as we have seen these past few days, the presence of instability doesn't always translate to having thunderstorms.
The one thing that does seem to be certain is heavy rain, mainly from late Thursday through Friday night. Below is the UW forecast for total rain through 5 PM Friday.
This forecast shows 0.5-1" from Seattle to Tacoma (1-1.5" in the foothills) and 1-1.75" from Seattle northward, with areas in the foothills getting up to 2"!
This rainfall event still has some uncertainty, so stay tuned for Thursday night's update for more information!
One final note: you will feel a significant cooldown from Wednesday to Thursday. Below is the GFS forecast for temperature difference from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 PM Thursday.
Temperatures in the lowlands will be 10-25 degrees colder than Wednesday, with areas of Eastern Washington 0-10 degrees colder, except potentially 15-25 degrees colder near and south of Spokane.
After highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s on Wednesday, the lowlands will crash down to the upper 50s to low 60s, with the coast dropping to the mid 50s. Eastern Washington will remain warm, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
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